According to the new CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator, the most energy-intensive branches of the manufacturing industry and the agrifood sector are the ones which suffered the most in 2023. At the other end of the spectrum we find sectors such as hotels and restaurants and the automotive industry, which performed rather well.
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GDP beat expectations in Q4 2024 with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%, placing growth for the year as a whole at 1.9%. The good performance in the final stretch of 2024 introduces upside risks into CaixaBank Research’s current forecast for 2025 (2.3%), due to the knock-on effect.
The current state of Spain’s real estate market is characterised, broadly speaking, by the strength of demand and the scarcity of supply. As a result of this mismatch between supply and demand, home prices have accelerated, especially in the case of new-builds. Here at CaixaBank Research we already predicted that the upward trend in the real estate market would take hold in 2024, but the published data have proved to be more bullish than expected, and this, together with the improvement in the economic outlook, has led us to revise upwards our real estate sector forecasts for 2024-2025.
The Spanish economy has shown a positive tone in the opening months of 2025, driven, above all, by the revival of domestic demand. Although growth is expected to be slightly more moderate than last year, the decline in inflation and interest rates will act as important support factors in an international context marked by uncertainty. The CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator reflects this buoyancy in the opening months of the year and shows an increase in the number of sectors in expansion, although the picture is somewhat mixed.
Climate change represents a key challenge for the real estate sector and for the entire Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the risks associated with extreme weather events and the transition risks which the sector must address, as well as the role of public policies.
El sector de la restauración mantiene su buena racha en 2025, con un crecimiento sólido del gasto, gracias al empuje del turismo nacional e internacional. Aunque el ritmo se modera respecto a años anteriores, los datos muestran una clara resiliencia, incluso tras el apagón eléctrico del 28 de abril, que supuso un golpe puntual para la facturación.
Los indicadores muestran que el ritmo de crecimiento del sector turístico español se está normalizando tras los excepcionales registros de 2022-2024, impulsados por la recuperación pospandemia y el consiguiente repunte del consumo de servicios. Las tendencias observadas a finales de 2024 se prolongan en 2025: el sector mantiene su atractivo para un creciente número de turistas internacionales, mientras que el turista residente pierde presencia en los destinos locales y gana protagonismo en el extranjero. Aun así, este año el sector volverá a ser clave para la economía española. Según nuestras previsiones, el PIB turístico crecerá un 2,7%, gracias al sólido arranque de año, al aumento de la renta disponible de las familias, a la reactivación de algunas economías europeas y a la moderación de la inflación turística.
We use internal data to analyse the behaviour of foreign visitors who stay in Spain for long periods of time. This is a segment of the population that tends to stay in second homes, seasonal rental homes or specialist accommodation – segments that are experiencing rising demand in Spain’s real estate market.
Between 2018 and 2024, the Spanish economy experienced a substantial improvement in its relative electricity and gas prices, going from paying more than the European average to benefiting from lower rates. This decline is a result of the significant growth of solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power, the two forms of electricity generation with the lowest cost. Lower electricity prices compared to European competitors have facilitated the manufacturing sector’s good performance in recent years. This advantage in the generation of sustainable and low-cost electricity gives Spain’s industry a competitive edge over its competitors.
Although the summer months continue to account for a large part of tourist flows, travel outside the high season is growing more rapidly, especially among Europeans and among Spaniards with medium and high income levels.
Valuations of commercial real estate assets recovered significantly during 2024, driven by the shift in monetary policy and the reduction of market interest rates. Investment in the sector grew at an annual rate of around 20% and the living, hotel and retail segments were particularly dynamic. For 2025, it appears that most of the revaluations will have already taken place, as interest rates are already at levels close to the new equilibrium. Still, the sector will continue to attract investment opportunities. Spain is positioning itself among the most attractive destinations for international investment in commercial real estate, thanks to solid macroeconomic fundamentals that will remain attractive throughout this year.
The initiation of the ECB’s monetary policy normalisation process has led to an acceleration in house prices, especially in markets with a significant mismatch between insufficient supply and dynamic demand. The economies in which real prices have increased the most in the last year and a half, and where the residential markets are showing signs of more significant overvaluation, include Portugal, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Netherlands and Estonia. In contrast, the markets of large economies such as Germany, Sweden, France and Luxembourg remain overvalued, but have corrected the strong price growth they experienced in the decades leading up to the pandemic, reducing signs of overheating.
In 2023, the tourism sector in Portugal continued its path of recovery, exceeding expectations and setting new records in various parameters. For 2024, we expect this good performance to be maintained, albeit at a pace closer to cruising speed.
In a month in which, unfortunately, geopolitical risk is once again taking centre stage, in the Dossier on the 2024 Outlook we review the key themes and forecasts for next year. The first theme is precisely how difficult it will be to recover a balance in the macroeconomy, in a world in which geopolitical instability has reached levels not seen in many decades.
In a scenario dominated by risks, what is the starting point and the future outlook for the Spanish economy in 2024? What about its strengths and weaknesses?
The latest available economic indicators suggest that the trends observed for much of 2024 remain in place as the year draws to a close: buoyancy and resilience in the US, weakness in the euro area due to the delicate situation in Germany and France, and a lack of momentum in the Chinese economy in the absence of decisive economic stimuli.
Although it is still far from the 2% target rate, inflation in both the euro area and the US has fallen steadily throughout 2023, and one of the key assumptions in our 2024 outlook is that it will continue to do so next year, facilitating the first interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB. But how robust is this disinflationary assumption? How much of a hurry are the central banks in to lower rates?
The recent publication of the European Commission’s 2024 Ageing Report is an important milestone for the Commission’s evaluation of the 2021-2023 pension reform planned for 2025 and will determine whether further measures are needed to ensure the system’s sustainability.
The upturn in debt yields on a global scale has put the fiscal situation back in the spotlight. The case of Europe is of particular interest, since in 2024 the fiscal rules will be reinstated after having been suspended since 2019 due to the pandemic and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. What the new fiscal framework proposes? Is the proposed plan more or less strict than the current one?
After growing by 3.2% in 2024, in 2025 the economy is expected to continue to grow above the euro area average, supported by strong household consumption and the recovery of investment. The major geopolitical challenges and Europe’s weak growth represent the main risk factors.