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House prices and the number of sales have surged since mid-last year in Spain, although there are significant geographical differences. In 2024, house prices grew more vigorously in the most expensive areas, thus widening the price gap between municipalities and regions, and this is causing some of the demand to begin to shift towards more affordable areas. At the provincial level, temperature could be a relevant factor: sales are growing more rapidly in the cooler regions of the Northwest of the peninsula, while the traditional tourist areas are experiencing a more gradual increase in demand. In addition, the sharp rise in house prices in the major cities is causing a shift in housing demand towards more affordable peripheral areas, where house prices are expected to experience rapid growth in 2025.

According to the new CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator, the most energy-intensive branches of the manufacturing industry and the agrifood sector are the ones which suffered the most in 2023. At the other end of the spectrum we find sectors such as hotels and restaurants and the automotive industry, which performed rather well.

The catering sector is continuing its good streak in 2025, with solid growth in spending thanks to the boost from both national and international tourism. Although the pace of growth has moderated compared to previous years, the data show a clear resilience, even after the power blackout on 28 April, which dealt a temporary blow to the sector’s turnover.

The indicators show that the growth rate of Spain’s tourism sector is normalising after the exceptional figures of 2022-2024, driven by the post-pandemic recovery and the consequent rebound in the consumption of services. The trends observed at the end of 2024 are continuing in 2025: the sector remains attractive to a growing number of international tourists, while the presence of resident tourists in local destinations is diminishing in favour of increased prominence abroad. Even so, this year the sector will once again be key for the Spanish economy. According to our forecasts, tourism GDP will grow by 2.7%, thanks to the solid start to the year, the increase in household disposable income, the revival of some European economies and the moderation of tourism inflation. 

In recent years, the rise in house prices has intensified, becoming one of the main economic and social concerns in Spain. This phenomenon is largely explained by the housing deficit that has accumulated since 2021 due to a persistent gap between supply and demand. This housing deficit is significant (we estimate it amounts to around 4% of the stock of primary homes in Spain), and higher in certain provinces, major cities and tourist areas: precisely where we find the greatest upward pressures on prices.

Climate change represents a key challenge for the real estate sector and for the entire Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the risks associated with extreme weather events and the transition risks which the sector must address, as well as the role of public policies.

Spain’s agrifood sector is enjoying an expansion in 2025, favoured by improved weather conditions, the containment of production costs and increased demand. All this translates into a gradual increase in production and exports, which have already recovered to pre-pandemic levels, as well as a more dynamic labour market, with job creation and a reduction in temporary employment. The outlook for the coming quarters is encouraging, although significant challenges remain, including the US tariff hikes and the growing impact of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and fires.

The Spanish housing market is in the midst of a boom, driven by lower interest rates, the improvement in purchasing power and population growth. Demand continues to grow sharply, with foreign buyers playing a notable role, while supply is also steadily gaining traction, although it still does not compensate for the housing deficit accumulated since 2021. House prices continue to accelerate, now exceeding the peak reached in 2007 in nominal terms, and signs of overvaluation are beginning to become apparent. However, the current context differs from the one prior to the bursting of the housing bubble: rather than an oversupply, there is a serious housing deficit, and that is what primarily explains the pressure on prices; moreover, households, the construction and developer sector, and the financial system are in a strong financial position. We expect prices and sales to remain dynamic in the coming quarters, underscoring the need to increase the supply of affordable housing.

Since Spain’s tourism sector returned in 2023 to the peak levels of 2019, the sector has been showing no signs of cyclical exhaustion and it recorded strong growth in 2024.

We use internal data to analyse the behaviour of foreign visitors who stay in Spain for long periods of time. This is a segment of the population that tends to stay in second homes, seasonal rental homes or specialist accommodation – segments that are experiencing rising demand in Spain’s real estate market.

Between 2018 and 2024, the Spanish economy experienced a substantial improvement in its relative electricity and gas prices, going from paying more than the European average to benefiting from lower rates. This decline is a result of the significant growth of solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power, the two forms of electricity generation with the lowest cost. Lower electricity prices compared to European competitors have facilitated the manufacturing sector’s good performance in recent years. This advantage in the generation of sustainable and low-cost electricity gives Spain’s industry a competitive edge over its competitors. 

The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors in 2025 and 2026 is strong. Although there remains a high level of uncertainty surrounding the rules that govern global trade, we expect Spain’s GDP to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and by 2.0% in 2026, in a scenario in which the trade tensions remain contained.

Although the summer months continue to account for a large part of tourist flows, travel outside the high season is growing more rapidly, especially among Europeans and among Spaniards with medium and high income levels.