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Spain’s National Statistics Institute has revised the growth of recent years upwards and the flash indicators for Q3 point to an improvement in private consumption, despite the slowdown in the labour market in the quarter. Inflation unexpectedly fell to 1.5% in September, while housing demand was higher than expected.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/spanish-economy-faring-better-we-thought

With disinflation on track and some signs of a slowdown in economic activity and a cooling of the labour market, monetary policy is shifting gears and starting to dial back the monetary tightening of the past years: going from restrictive to neutral. The ECB and the Fed, along with other major central banks, have initiated this easing process with interest rate cuts, and they are expected to continue doing so in 2025. From there, we will seek to clarify the factors that will guide this new phase of monetary policy.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-2025-dialling-back-time

The current state of Spain’s real estate market is characterised, broadly speaking, by the strength of demand and the scarcity of supply. As a result of this mismatch between supply and demand, home prices have accelerated, especially in the case of new-builds. Here at CaixaBank Research we already predicted that the upward trend in the real estate market would take hold in 2024, but the published data have proved to be more bullish than expected, and this, together with the improvement in the economic outlook, has led us to revise upwards our real estate sector forecasts for 2024-2025.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode

At CaixaBank Research, we are not leaders in research into big data or artificial intelligence. However, we do try to keep an eye on the latest developments in this field in order to improve economic analysis, especially in those areas that are key in order for growth to be more dynamic, more inclusive and more sustainable in the long term.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/big-data-and-big-challenges-spanish-economy

The latest available economic indicators suggest that the trends observed for much of 2024 remain in place as the year draws to a close: buoyancy and resilience in the US, weakness in the euro area due to the delicate situation in Germany and France, and a lack of momentum in the Chinese economy in the absence of decisive economic stimuli.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/us-economy-clear-winner-2024

The international economy showed remarkable resilience in 2024 and the available data suggest that world GDP may have grown slightly above 3%. The tailwinds that supported economic activity will likely continue to blow in 2025, albeit with less strength and in the face of significant challenges.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/year-challenges-international-economy-further-along-cycle