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The start of 2025 has brought a change in the focus of the financial markets, which was consolidated in February. Investors have shifted their attention away from the central banks, which were the main driver of the markets in 2024, towards an environment of high geopolitical risk, with the «Trump effect» as a key catalyst.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/financial-markets/high-volatility-new-geopolitical-environment

The pandemic is having a vastly different impact depending on the generation, not only abroad but in Spain’s domestic economy too. In this final article of the Dossier, we use anonymised internal CaixaBank data to analyse whether there have been significant differences in Spaniards’ incomes and expenditure according to the generation to which they belong.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/labour-market-demographics/income-and-expenditure-between-generations-times

The AIReF has ruled that the pension spending rule agreed with the European Commission has not been violated, although it has pointed out that complying with this rule does not guarantee the sustainability of the pension system or that of the general government as a whole. Moreover, it has warned that it will be necessary to increase government transfers to the Social Security system in order to sustain it between now and 2050.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/labour-market-demographics/airefs-evaluation-pension-reform-first-match-ball

In these first few months of the year, Spain’s GDP has continued to grow at a significant rate, although the gap between the services and industrial sectors persists. Job creation is gaining traction, while inflation continues to decline, driven by the fall in energy prices. The trade deficit continued to increase in February and residential activity in Spain has had the best start to the year since 2007.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/spanish-economy-weathers-uncertainty-storm

In our revision of the international forecast scenario, we maintain the assumption that the bilateral tariff between the US and the EU will be 10%. We also maintain the assumption that the tariffs between the US and China will reach a level of 60% in 2025 (an increase of 45 pps compared to December 2024), but now this increase is not anticipated to take place as gradually as we previously thought.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/new-economic-scenario-world-holds-its-breath-over-trumps-tariffs

The truce in the tariff tensions between Washington and Beijing ended up fuelling a renewed risk appetite in May. However, the optimism was gradually overshadowed as the month progressed by the predictable fiscal deterioration in the US and other developed economies, as well as by the persistent volatility in Trump’s trade policy.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/financial-markets/uncertainty-over-economic-policy-continues-steer-investor-mood

The arrival of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on many social and economic spheres; where and how we work is just one of them. Until now, offices had been a place for people to work, meet up and socialise, all activities which, thanks to technology, can still be carried out remotely. Has the coronavirus sounded the death knell for the office?

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/labour-market-demographics/office-future-return-past