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The latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook highlights stable growth expectations for the global economy (GDP +3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027). Technological dynamism, particularly investment related to AI, continues to sustain economic activity, especially in the US, offsetting the adverse effects of persistent trade tensions and high geopolitical uncertainty. In this environment, the IMF anticipates a gradual slowdown in international trade (+2.6% in 2026 vs. 4.1% in 2025), and economic activity is showing uneven dynamics. 

GDP maintained a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.2% in a Q3 marked by a pattern of steady growth.

Stable economic outlook but with increasing risks: geopolitical instability, uncertainty and a lack of confidence.

The current state of Spain’s real estate market is characterised, broadly speaking, by the strength of demand and the scarcity of supply. As a result of this mismatch between supply and demand, home prices have accelerated, especially in the case of new-builds. Here at CaixaBank Research we already predicted that the upward trend in the real estate market would take hold in 2024, but the published data have proved to be more bullish than expected, and this, together with the improvement in the economic outlook, has led us to revise upwards our real estate sector forecasts for 2024-2025.

GDP growth once again beat expectations in Q3 and the labour market and the PMIs kick off Q4 on a good footing.

Sentiment improves in the US, but remains somewhat hesitant in the rest of the world, while the central banks make progress in the «gradual» monetary easing process.

Geopolitical events have once again taken centre stage, almost relegating to the background the assessment of the economic indicators published over the past month. The US attack on Iran has caused a spike in geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty, opening up a new source of risk in an environment characterised by the transactional stance of the Trump administration and the erosion of multilateral institutions.

Given its official «data-dependent» strategy, the ECB’s upcoming decisions will be subject to the current signals provided by the data, although they will likely also be conditioned by expectations regarding the US economic agenda and its consequences for the future.

At CaixaBank Research, we are not leaders in research into big data or artificial intelligence. However, we do try to keep an eye on the latest developments in this field in order to improve economic analysis, especially in those areas that are key in order for growth to be more dynamic, more inclusive and more sustainable in the long term.

The market’s first reaction to Trump’s and the Republican party’s victory in the US election was in line with expectations that their policies would lead to higher inflation in the medium term, as well as providing a certain boost to short-term economic growth.

The Spanish economy is maintaining a good tone as 2024 draws to a close. The labour market is performing well despite the slight slowdown in November; inflation is picking up, driven by the most volatile components; the current account surplus continues to grow, and home sales are soaring.

The latest available economic indicators suggest that the trends observed for much of 2024 remain in place as the year draws to a close: buoyancy and resilience in the US, weakness in the euro area due to the delicate situation in Germany and France, and a lack of momentum in the Chinese economy in the absence of decisive economic stimuli.

Portugal’s National statistics Institute confirmed that the economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 (1.9% year-on-year), with a significant contribution from domestic demand, highlighting the strength of private consumption.

In the coming years, the paths of interest rates and nominal GDP growth will create an environment in which it will not be so easy to regain fiscal space without a proactive effort by governments.

2025 is set to be a year of change between a world that has not quite died yet (globalisation, multilateralism, liberal democracies) and another that has not quite been born and which nobody knows what shape it will take.

The international economy showed remarkable resilience in 2024 and the available data suggest that world GDP may have grown slightly above 3%. The tailwinds that supported economic activity will likely continue to blow in 2025, albeit with less strength and in the face of significant challenges.

Spain’s GDP continued to record dynamic growth in Q3 2024 and the main indicators suggest this trend will continue in Q4. The strength of the labour market is boosting household incomes and inflation remains contained, despite the ongoing rebound.

As of the close of this report, military and economic pressure continues around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for the global supply of oil, gas, and derivative products. The IMF, in its April outlook report, points out that despite the strong start to 2026 globally, there is a risk of a severe energy shock if hostilities persist.

The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.