The Spanish economy is growing at a good pace – more so than expected – and this leads us here at CaixaBank Research to revise our growth forecasts for 2025 upwards from 2.3% to 2.5%. Despite the good news, the focus is not on the improvement in the forecasts, but rather on the uncertainty that surrounds them. 

The start of 2025 has brought a change in the focus of the financial markets, which was consolidated in February. Investors have shifted their attention away from the central banks, which were the main driver of the markets in 2024, towards an environment of high geopolitical risk, with the «Trump effect» as a key catalyst.

The pandemic is having a vastly different impact depending on the generation, not only abroad but in Spain’s domestic economy too. In this final article of the Dossier, we use anonymised internal CaixaBank data to analyse whether there have been significant differences in Spaniards’ incomes and expenditure according to the generation to which they belong.

Economic activity is showing signs of a slowdown and inflation fell below 2% in March for the first time since August 2024.

That being the case, for the moment, and while we wait for events to unfold, it seems that our economy ought to weather this period of uncertainty better than our main trading partners.

The surge in uncertainty and the tariff hikes introduce downside risks to global growth, as well as upside risks to US inflation, while the impact on prices for the rest of the world is much more uncertain. 

Trump’s tariffs deal a blow to investor risk appetite and sovereign yield curves steepen on both sides of the Atlantic, as the central banks try to navigate the tidal surge. The stock markets register high volatility and the commodities most dependent on the business cycle fall.

The AIReF has ruled that the pension spending rule agreed with the European Commission has not been violated, although it has pointed out that complying with this rule does not guarantee the sustainability of the pension system or that of the general government as a whole. Moreover, it has warned that it will be necessary to increase government transfers to the Social Security system in order to sustain it between now and 2050.

Portugal’s growth in the first quarter of the year fell short of expectations, shrinking 0.5% quarter-on-quarter according to the preliminary estimate of Portugal’s National Statistics Institute.

At least for now, and despite the depreciation it has accumulated so far this year, the value of the dollar does not appear to reflect any major change in the currency’s central role in the international monetary system.

In these first few months of the year, Spain’s GDP has continued to grow at a significant rate, although the gap between the services and industrial sectors persists. Job creation is gaining traction, while inflation continues to decline, driven by the fall in energy prices. The trade deficit continued to increase in February and residential activity in Spain has had the best start to the year since 2007.

This month, we have updated our forecast scenario for the Spanish economy. Although we now expect growth to be slightly lower than previously anticipated, the message remains broadly positive and there are several elements sustaining the Spanish economy’s dynamic growth.

In our revision of the international forecast scenario, we maintain the assumption that the bilateral tariff between the US and the EU will be 10%. We also maintain the assumption that the tariffs between the US and China will reach a level of 60% in 2025 (an increase of 45 pps compared to December 2024), but now this increase is not anticipated to take place as gradually as we previously thought.

The truce in the tariff tensions between Washington and Beijing ended up fuelling a renewed risk appetite in May. However, the optimism was gradually overshadowed as the month progressed by the predictable fiscal deterioration in the US and other developed economies, as well as by the persistent volatility in Trump’s trade policy.

We expand on the assessment of the economic impact of the blackout on 28 April in Spain by taking a cross-section by sector and autonomous community region, based on the analysis of internal CaixaBank data.

If you are reading this article hoping to find out what is going to happen in less than 30 seconds, please stop now. You will be disappointed.

The arrival of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on many social and economic spheres; where and how we work is just one of them. Until now, offices had been a place for people to work, meet up and socialise, all activities which, thanks to technology, can still be carried out remotely. Has the coronavirus sounded the death knell for the office?

In a context marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent uncertainty and tariff threats, the global economy continues to show remarkable resilience.