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The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the recent agreement signed between the US and Iran has significantly eased tensions in the energy markets, reducing the pressure that has been building on the economy and dispelling the spectre of a slowdown.

In the other pages of this Dossier, we have analysed in depth how ageing will affect the capacity for economic growth and the public finances. All these changes will have consequences on the supply and demand for savings and, therefore, on the interest rates of economies.

The latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook highlights stable growth expectations for the global economy (GDP +3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027). Technological dynamism, particularly investment related to AI, continues to sustain economic activity, especially in the US, offsetting the adverse effects of persistent trade tensions and high geopolitical uncertainty. In this environment, the IMF anticipates a gradual slowdown in international trade (+2.6% in 2026 vs. 4.1% in 2025), and economic activity is showing uneven dynamics. 

The ageing of the population will have a major impact on the public finances of advanced economies. The mechanism is well known: the ageing of the population and the consequent increase in dependency ratios can reduce tax revenues and increase public spending substantially. The main message of this article is that demographics will exert intense upward pressure on the public finances in Spain and Europe.

The Portuguese economy is showing remarkable resilience in 2025, driven mainly by a buoyant labour market and increasingly strong investment.

The Spanish economy continues to advance at a dynamic pace. For several years now, it has maintained relatively high growth, both from a historical perspective and in comparison with most developed economies.

The Spanish economy successfully navigated the trade and geopolitical tensions affecting the global environment in 2025, achieving growth of 2.8%. This figure clearly surpasses both our forecast at the start of year, which was 2.3%, and the euro area’s growth, which stood at 1.5%. This GDP growth was driven by the momentum of domestic demand, which offset the deterioration of external demand resulting from the surge in imports.

Q2 2025 began with all bets placed on a slowdown in the growth of the Spanish economy. In early April, and after months of threats, the Trump administration announced bilateral tariffs and catapulted the main uncertainty indicators to all-time highs. Weeks later, a blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for a day. Moreover, all this happened in an environment in which the euro area economy was once again showing signs of cooling.

Geopolitical events have once again taken centre stage, almost relegating to the background the assessment of the economic indicators published over the past month. The US attack on Iran has caused a spike in geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty, opening up a new source of risk in an environment characterised by the transactional stance of the Trump administration and the erosion of multilateral institutions.

The summer of 2025 – one of relative calm in the financial markets despite the volatility of the macroeconomic environment – has brought with it a change of gear between the Fed and the ECB. While France is emerging as a new source of instability, in the US sovereign rates are adjusting to monetary policy expectations, but they do not seem to fear institutional risk. The stock markets enjoy another month of gains, and among commodities, crude oil remains stable and gold reaches a new high. 

The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.

The start of 2026 has brought volatility and mixed dynamics reflecting the markets' sensitivity to geopolitical and technological shifts. The threat of a military conflict between the US and Iran had already heightened the perception of risk before the bombings materialised and triggered a sharp increase in stress and volatility, especially in commodity markets.

The risk map is demanding and, in addition to the prevalence of geopolitical disruptions, the financial markets have shown sensitivity to the promises, doubts and transformations of artificial intelligence (AI) and to the sustainability of public debt.

CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario for the Spanish economy, which was finalised before the outbreak of the war in Iran, anticipates dynamic growth in 2026, albeit more moderate than that of recent years. Domestic demand, and especially private consumption and investment, began the year with sufficient momentum to enjoy strong growth and continue leading the recovery. However, the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East opens a new chapter of global economic and political uncertainty.

Geopolitics marked the beginning of the year in the financial markets. The resurgence of tensions, from Venezuela to Iran, and the diplomatic clash between the US and Europe over Greenland generated risk aversion and triggered a temporary spike in market volatility. 

Macro fundamentals have closely aligned with observed sovereign risk premiums in recent years. In fact, the sustained moderation of the main euro area risk premiums clearly aligns with what is predicted by the fundamentals. However, a country‑by‑country analysis reveals a more nuanced picture.