Luís is an economist for the International Economics & Markets Department. He has a PhD in Economics from Cardiff University and a Master in International Economics and European Studies from Lisbon University. Before joining CaixaBank, he was Visiting Assistant Professor in Economics and the Public Sector at Pompeu Fabra University and a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and Centre for Research in Health and Economics (CRES-UPF). His areas of study include public economics and macroeconomics and particularly international fiscal policy, specialising in monitoring China and the European Uninon.
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Pedro Álvarez is an economist in the Spanish Economics department. With a Master’s degree in Applied Economics from the University of Oviedo, after specialising in the study of financial crises and early warning systems he began his career at the Inter-American Development Bank in the USA. Prior to joining CaixaBank Research he had accumulated more than fifteen years of experience in analysing the economic outlook in other financial institutions. Currently, his areas of research include macroeconomic analysis of the Spanish economy, with a particular emphasis on sectoral analysis.
José Antonio is a data scientist in the Department of Strategic Planning. He holds a degree from the Polytechnic University of Catalonia, where he was part of the second ever intake of the degree in Data Science and Engineering, and he is participating in the first edition of CaixaBank’s Data Talent programme. Prior to joining the bank, and in conjunction with his university studies in Barcelona and Stockholm, he co-founded a tech start-up with two partners, where he complemented his education in technology with a well-rounded and comprehensive view of the business world.
Imelda is a senior economist in the Banking Strategy Department. With a Master's degree in Financial Markets from the Catholic Institute of Business Administration (ICADE), before joining CaixaBank she worked as director of financial systems at Bankia Research. Her main areas of research include the Spanish banking system, especially tracking business volumes, as well as the competitive and regulatory environment of the financial sector.
Isabela holds the position of economist in the International Economics & Markets. Graduated in Economics from Boston University and Master in Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics, before joining CaixaBank she worked at AV Securities as an economic and market research analyst for the wealth management area. Her current areas of study include macroeconomics, especially US monetary policy and activity, and financial markets.
Zoel is an economist at the Spanish Economics Department. PhD in Economics by the Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF) and MSc in Economics at the Barcelona School of Economics (BSE). Before joining CaixaBank, he worked as research assistant at the Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREi) and as teaching assistant at the UPF and BSE. His main areas of expertise include integration of big data in macroeconomics and the impacts of climate change on macroeconomics. He specializes on monitoring and forecasting Spanish inflation.
María is an economist in the International Economics & Markets Department. Graduated in Economics and Master in Industrial Economics and Markets from the Carlos III University. Before joining CaixaBank, he worked as an analyst in the Economics area of Analistas Financieros Internacionales (Afi), as a research economist in the Department of Studies and Statistics of INVERCO and at Telefónica, and as a research assistant in the Research Service of the Bank of Spain. His areas of interest cover both macroeconomics and microeconomics and the use of quantitative tools.
Consuelo is a Research Assistant in the Department of International Economics and Markets. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Chile, a Master's degree in Public Policy from the University of Chile, and a Master's degree in Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Prior to joining CaixaBank, she worked as a Foreign Exchange Trader in the Treasury Department of Banco Santander Chile.
Adrià works as Lead Economist in the International Economics & Markets Department. He holds a PhD in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra and a Master in Economics from the Barcelona GSE. Before joining CaixaBank he worked as a Research Assistant and Seminar Lecturer at Universitat Pompeu Fabra. His areas of study include the labour market and macroeconomics, with particular emphasis on monetary policy. He coordinates the Monthly Report.
Sandra is the Director of the Banking Strategy Department. With a Doctorate in Economics and a Masters in Economics, Mathematics and Econometrics from the Toulouse School of Economics, at CaixaBank she has also worked in the Department of Innovation and Digital Transformation. Before joining the bank she worked at Endesa and in the Economics department of IESE Business School. Her main areas of study are the Spanish and international banking systems, financial regulation and the impact of digitisation and new technologies on the competitive environment for banks.
Carolina is Secretary to the Chief Economist, Enric Fernandez, as well as an Assistant in the Strategic Planning and Research Division. She has a degree in Journalism and a Master in Business Communication from Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, and has experience in the field of communication in a range of industries. Since joining CaixaBank she has worked in the Communication, Business and Senior Management departments. What she likes most about her job is being able to help the team in every way possible, with a positive attitude and desire to improve. A fan of nature, reading and cooking, she loves outdoor sports.
Antonio is a research assistant in the Department of International Economies and Markets. He graduated with a double degree in Economics and Law from the Pompeu Fabra University and a master’s degree in Economics from the Barcelona School of Economics. Before joining CaixaBank, he worked at PwC as a consultant in the Strategy& Economics department.
The economic policies implemented during the pandemic have cushioned the impact of the crisis on families’ financial situation. On the one hand, a further fall in household income has been avoided while, on the other, the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy has led to a reduction in debt interest payments. A detailed analysis of the effort required by households to pay off their mortgages, based on CaixaBank’s own internal data, duly reweighted to be representative of the Spanish population, shows that these measures have managed to reduce the mortgage burden during the pandemic for most households, although pockets of vulnerability still remain among low-income households.
The slowdown in exports has been one of the main sources of weakness in the Spanish economy in recent quarters. Manufacturing is particularly dependent on sales abroad and has been the epicentre of the deterioration in exports of goods.
The rental housing market has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. Its sharp price rises, much bigger than the increase in wage income, has highlighted the economic vulnerability of households living in rented accommodation. These households tend to have a lower-than-average income level and a high percentage of them spend more than 40% of their income on housing-related payments. To redress this worrying situation, much-needed economic policy measures have been taken to increase the supply of affordable housing. However, other types of policies have also been proposed, such as rent caps in stressed market areas, although their effectiveness is limited judging by experiences in other countries.
The rapid rise in house prices in many European countries during the pandemic has raised concerns about the possibility of a price correction in the coming quarters. Should we be worried in the case of Spain? Given the current macroeconomic scenario, we argue that there is no need for concern. This conclusion is largely due to the good financial health of households as a whole and to reasonable housing affordability in aggregate terms. Neither do we expect an upward spiral in prices: prices may pick up while the economy moves back to its pre-pandemic levels but, in the medium term, we expect house prices to grow in line with household income. We have confirmed this using CaixaBank Research’s new risk model (HaR).
The COVID-19 crisis is severely affecting house purchases. Once the slump in transactions during the lockdown has been overcome, the evolution in demand will largely depend on the recovery of the labour market and international tourism over the coming months. Our forecast scenario predicts a gradual recovery in demand, although the more than half a million transactions recorded in 2019 will not be repeated, even in 2021.
Valuations of commercial real estate assets recovered significantly during 2024, driven by the shift in monetary policy and the reduction of market interest rates. Investment in the sector grew at an annual rate of around 20% and the living, hotel and retail segments were particularly dynamic. For 2025, it appears that most of the revaluations will have already taken place, as interest rates are already at levels close to the new equilibrium. Still, the sector will continue to attract investment opportunities. Spain is positioning itself among the most attractive destinations for international investment in commercial real estate, thanks to solid macroeconomic fundamentals that will remain attractive throughout this year.
The resilience of the Spanish economy in recent years has been underpinned by both quantitative (strong job creation) and qualitative (more stable employment) improvements in the labour market. Firstly, there has been a fall in temporary employment, a factor that has traditionally fuelled job insecurity and social inequalities and held back investment in human capital, constraining the economy's growth potential; secondly, in some key sectors of our economy this has been accompanied by an improvement in productivity. However, the incipient improvement in overall productivity that has been observed is not widespread across all sectors.
The tourism sector remains one of the key drivers of the Spanish economy, with tourism GDP expected to grow by 2.7%, above the Spanish average. However, it has entered a new phase of more moderate growth after years of strong expansion driven by the post-pandemic recovery.