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Valuations of commercial real estate assets recovered significantly during 2024, driven by the shift in monetary policy and the reduction of market interest rates. Investment in the sector grew at an annual rate of around 20% and the living, hotel and retail segments were particularly dynamic. For 2025, it appears that most of the revaluations will have already taken place, as interest rates are already at levels close to the new equilibrium. Still, the sector will continue to attract investment opportunities. Spain is positioning itself among the most attractive destinations for international investment in commercial real estate, thanks to solid macroeconomic fundamentals that will remain attractive throughout this year.

The tourism sector remains one of the key drivers of the Spanish economy, with tourism GDP expected to grow by 2.7%, above the Spanish average. However, it has entered a new phase of more moderate growth after years of strong expansion driven by the post-pandemic recovery. 

Based on CaixaBank’s internal data regarding rent payments, we have constructed indicators for the recent trend in residential rental prices at a provincial level and for the largest municipalities. The results obtained show that there was already a generalised slowdown in rent growth before the pandemic arrived, and that the outbreak of the health crisis extended corrections to most provinces and municipalities, with decreases being especially pronounced among the lowest rents and in the most tourist-oriented municipalities.

We use internal data to analyse the behaviour of foreign visitors who stay in Spain for long periods of time. This is a segment of the population that tends to stay in second homes, seasonal rental homes or specialist accommodation – segments that are experiencing rising demand in Spain’s real estate market.

The Spanish real estate market accelerated in 2024, especially in the second half of the year, largely thanks to the fall in interest rates. This was added to a series of factors that are keeping housing demand very dynamic, including significant migration flows, rapid job creation and strong foreign demand. On the other hand, the supply of new housing is beginning to awaken, but it remains insufficient to address the high demand. This mismatch between strong demand and scarce supply is driving up house prices – a trend that we expect to continue in 2025.

Spain’s agrifood sector continues to show significant strength and has consolidated its role as the country’s leading driver of exports, thanks to an environment with contained price increases and a recovery in demand. Spain has become the EU’s fourth biggest exporting power and the eighth in the world, with a 3.4% share of the global market. In addition, it has recorded almost three decades of trade surpluses, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP in 2024. Despite the complex international environment, marked by geopolitical tensions and protectionism, the growth of agrifood exports in the first half of 2025, both in volume and in value, hints at a good year for the sector.

The pork industry has consolidated its position as the most important sector for Spanish livestock farming, accounting for over 40% of final livestock production. It comprises around 86,500 farms and 2,600 processors, with most of its production concentrated in just three regions: Catalonia, Aragon and Castile & Leon. Recently, the pork industry has managed to handle the fall in demand due to COVID-19 better than other meat sectors, a result of it being less dependent on the hospitality channel and also the increase in demand from China, whose domestic production has been severely affected by African swine fever (ASF). This situation has allowed Spain’s pork industry to consolidate its position as one of the major players in the EU and the world. The challenges that now need to be tackled by the sector include reducing its pollutant emissions and continuing to strictly apply the necessary biosecurity measures to stop ASF from entering Spain.

Foreign demand for housing in Spain has performed exceptionally well after the pandemic. In 2022, foreigners bought 90,000 homes in Spain, 46% more than in 2021. In line with this good performance, the number of mortgages taken out by foreigners also increased and reached 30,000 in 2022, so that one in three foreign buyers took out a mortgage in Spain last year. Foreign residents tend to buy homes and take out mortgages for a similar amount as Spaniards. On the other hand, non-resident foreigners tend to opt for more expensive properties and, consequently, the average mortgage taken out by foreigners is higher, although there are notable differences depending on nationality and autonomous region. The value of mortgages taken out by foreigners in the Balearic Islands is particularly high while, in terms of nationality, Swedes and Americans tend to take out the largest mortgages.

The outbreak of the pandemic has changed the scenario for investment in retail-related property. On the one hand, severe mobility restrictions and social distancing measures have lowered prices and rents for commercial premises, reducing investor interest. On the other hand, COVID-19 has brought about a change in the habits of Spanish consumers that has benefited supermarkets, where investment reached record highs in 2020, and has accelerated the penetration of online commerce in the retail sector, boosting investment in the logistics required to support this sales channel.

The pandemic has altered the commercial real estate investment landscape, creating different types of assets according to the degree of disruption caused by the travel restrictions imposed to tackle the health crisis. Assets that have benefited include residential property, logistics assets and data centres, as well as a large proportion of retail assets. Among the most disadvantaged are offices and hotel assets, weighed down by the rise in teleworking and slump in international tourism.

In 2024, the Spanish economy has exhibited widespread growth across virtually all of its sectors: the number of sectors in a situation of weakness has reduced, while that of sectors in expansion has increased, following the gradual absorption of the major shocks that affected their performance in recent years.

The shortage of housing supply in a context of strong demand will remain one of the main challenges of Spain’s real estate market in 2025, although it is not among the most overvalued markets in the European Union.  

The Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (PRTR) for the Spanish economy could be an important catalyst for the real estate sector. With the help of European funds, the government plans to recondition half a million homes between 2021 and 2023, with the aim of improving their energy efficiency and thereby helping to achieve the agreed decarbonisation targets. The General State Budget (PGE) also proposes a notable increase in the funds allocated to increase the amount of rented social housing, a policy that is crucial as rents have become even less affordable for the most vulnerable members of the population.

Made in Spain, Made in the USA and even Made in China labels make less and less sense in today’s world. Since firms decided to fragment their production processes and move them to other countries, the label Made in the World probably better represents the nature of most of the manufactured goods we consume. In this article we review the past, present and future of global value chains at a time when pandemic-induced restrictions on travel and supply disruptions have brought them back into the spotlight.

The restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the coronavirus and caution due to the prevailing uncertainty led to a large increase in savings by Spanish households in 2020. Specifically, we estimate that cumulative savings from the pandemic reached €46.6 billion, 3.7% of 2019’s GDP. This sharp increase in savings has diminished as we have been able to return to our old habits, leading to a rapid recovery in consumption; a trend that will most likely continue in the coming quarters.

Spain’s manufacturing sector has overcome a 2022 that was hit hard by the energy crisis and supply problems regarding some raw materials, preventing manufacturers from getting back to their pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, although the economic situation is still significantly uncertain, the outlook is somewhat more favourable than a few months ago: having weathered the more adverse scenarios observed during the winter, the economy continues to show positive signs thanks to the stabilisation of energy markets and the resilience of Spain’s labour market and household consumption.

The combination of rapid population growth and the gradual decline in interest rates, coupled with the lack of supply, is driving up home prices, particularly in the new housing market and in the most buoyant regions, as well as in those that are most popular with tourists.

We identify the macroeconomic factors that affect the evolution of international tourism in Spain, including income growth in the source countries, inflation, geopolitical risk and exchange rates, and we estimate how many international tourists will visit Spain in 2024.