Rising production costs as a result of the war in Ukraine are affecting all the links in the food chain: production, processing, distribution and transport, although the primary sector has been particularly hard hit, also adversely affected by unfavourable weather conditions in the form of drought. Rising costs are being passed on to the food prices paid by end consumers, pushing up spending on food, particularly among lower-income households. The most positive note comes from the external sector: agrifood exports have continued to grow strongly in 2022 and competitiveness indicators do not seem to have worsened in spite of the price hikes.
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Although manufacturing is not among the sectors hardest hit by the crisis, the COVID-19 shock occurred within a context of a prolonged weakness in the sector, not only in Spain but in Europe as a whole. After the initial harsh adjustment, brief and uneven across the various branches of activity, the sector quickly picked up again, approaching its pre-pandemic levels of activity and employment. The outlook for 2021 and 2022 is favourable, driven especially by exports and the investments made via the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RTRP). Recent disruptions in global supply chains, caused by global transportation bottlenecks and component shortages, will have a limited, temporary impact.
Based on an anonymised analysis of internal CaixaBank data, we perform an in-depth study of recent patterns in spending on catering in Spain.
The COVID-19 crisis is severely affecting house purchases. Once the slump in transactions during the lockdown has been overcome, the evolution in demand will largely depend on the recovery of the labour market and international tourism over the coming months. Our forecast scenario predicts a gradual recovery in demand, although the more than half a million transactions recorded in 2019 will not be repeated, even in 2021.
We use internal data to analyse the behaviour of foreign visitors who stay in Spain for long periods of time. This is a segment of the population that tends to stay in second homes, seasonal rental homes or specialist accommodation – segments that are experiencing rising demand in Spain’s real estate market.
Dossier
The digital economy
During the months of lockdown there was a radical change in food consumption patterns in Spain. Using internal data on spending with Spanish and foreign cards via CaixaBank POS terminals, we can see that expenditure in supermarkets and large food stores picked up noticeably during the state of emergency. Online shopping also increased, partly to minimise travel and contact between people, whereas consumption in restaurants plummeted. Despite the fact that, during the summer, household expenditure on restaurants picked up strongly, the slump in foreign tourism continues to be particularly detrimental to establishments geared towards international clients.
We look at the cooling of the global manufacturing sector at a time marked by the convergence of various factors: the aftermath of the pandemic, the pull effect of China and the repercussions of the energy crisis for European industry.
After growing by 3.2% in 2024, in 2025 the economy is expected to continue to grow above the euro area average, supported by strong household consumption and the recovery of investment. The major geopolitical challenges and Europe’s weak growth represent the main risk factors.
NGEU is a powerful anti-cyclical policy, but there are many doubts about its potential scope and long-term legacy. If high-quality programmes are chosen, effectively developed and accompanied by useful reforms (the conditions attached to the disbursements could play an important role), a very high impact and potentially even permanent benefits could be achieved. If not, the boost to growth will be only fleeting.
Trump’s decisive victory and the Republican majority in Congress have triggered a significant appreciation of the dollar against its peers (3% in the nominal effective exchange rate) and in particular against the euro (4% cumulative appreciation between 5 and 26 November). The scope of the policies announced during the campaign affects the outlook for the euro-dollar exchange rate, which we review in this article.
In these liquid times we are living in – in which a moderately stable economic and political environment has given way to a changing, unpredictable reality subject to continuous transformation – from time to time it is necessary to pause and reflect on the key trends for the near future. That is what we try to do every November in our Dossier on the annual outlook.
The COVID-19 crisis has been a shock on a global scale, but its economic impact has been quite uneven from country to country, reflecting differences in productive structures and public policy response. Given this asymmetry, it is no surprise that the recovery is also occurring at very different paces, exacerbated by the discriminatory access to the vaccines and the continuous new outbreaks of the virus.
What’s behind the semiconductor shortage? Is it a transitory phenomenon attributable to the pandemic or does it also reflect structural factors linked to the specific characteristics of the sector?
The debate over working hours has intensified significantly in Spain, on the one hand, due to proposals for its reduction, and on the other, due to the rise in hours lost due to temporary sick leave. Beyond the impact on business costs and the labour market, the implications for labour productivity are of particular interest, with widely divergent readings since the pandemic in the case of Spain depending on whether we measure it per hour worked or per employee. This article places these debates within the broader the European context, drawing similarities and differences with other countries in our vicinity.
Did online trade mitigate the fall in household consumption in Portugal? Were (are) Portuguese businesses ready to do business in this way? Have consumers’ habits changed? Can e-commerce continue to gain ground from traditional retail?