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The international economy showed remarkable resilience in 2024 and the available data suggest that world GDP may have grown slightly above 3%. The tailwinds that supported economic activity will likely continue to blow in 2025, albeit with less strength and in the face of significant challenges.

Economic activity managed to rebound firmly and across the board in Q3, but the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections has led to a further tightening of mobility restrictions in many countries (especially in Europe), and most indicators suggest that economic activity will contract once again in the current fourth quarter. But
how much of a contraction are we talking about?

In an environment characterised since 2020 by a string of negative disturbances, the positive surprise in 2023 was once again the resilience of the global business cycle, understood as «the ability of a living being to adapt to a disturbing agent or an adverse state or situation», according to the definition of the Royal Spanish Academy.

The tailwinds generated by the latest inflation data and strong labour markets coexist with a natural loss of cyclical momentum and, in particular, with an environment marked by high geopolitical risks. This combination of competing forces will determine the pace of growth over the coming quarters.

The savings of Spaniards went from 5,800 euros per household in 2023 to more than 7,000 in 2024. Why has the household savings rate increased and what do we expect for 2025?

At CaixaBank Research, we are not leaders in research into big data or artificial intelligence. However, we do try to keep an eye on the latest developments in this field in order to improve economic analysis, especially in those areas that are key in order for growth to be more dynamic, more inclusive and more sustainable in the long term.

What exactly is productivity and how can we measure it? Where does Spain lie in terms of its productivity compared to the rest of the euro area? With this article, we launch a series on the fundamentals of the Spanish economy, which will continue in the monthly reports of the coming months.

In this second article on globalisation, we analyse the growing fragmentation of the world economy in recent times, focusing on the decoupling between the US and China, and its effects.

Monetary policy has reacted quickly and decisively to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, having successfully played the role of «fire-fighter», the ECB will have to remain highly active to support the revival of the economy.

De-risking, decoupling, fracturing, reshoring, nearshoring, friendshoring... understanding the new era of globalisation

The figures for US GDP in Q1 reveal a contrast between the strength of domestic demand and trade flows that were anticipating the introduction of tariffs, while the euro area has shown accelerated growth. However, this boost could soon run out of steam: the tariffs and their consequences will begin to have a negative impact. For now, there are no clear signs of a slowdown in trade flows, but with uncertainty at peak levels, the global economy is expected to enter into a slowdown, with more risks to the downside and more questions than answers.

Although it is nothing new, it is still important to emphasise it: the latest available indicators for the Spanish economy have once again beaten expectations. Despite the continued weakness of Europe and the high global uncertainty, Spain’s economy continues to stand out on the international stage.

The pace of growth of the Spanish economy has slowed, as evidenced by the lower GDP growth rate recorded in Q3. The main reason for this is the weakness of the external environment: the euro area has registered a slight decline in economic activity and its three main economies are stagnant. In contrast, the statistics for household consumption in Spain, one of the pillars of the economy, remain strong.