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The indicators published in recent weeks confirm the good health of the Spanish economy, with growth in Q1 once again beating expectations and recording the highest rate among the major euro area economies.

The wealth of Portuguese households has increased in recent years and the distribution by level of wealth or employment status shows little difference with respect to the euro area. However, the proportion of liabilities that are borne by the less wealthy half of the population is relatively higher.

The evolution of the economy points to a change of phase: the beginning of a relaxation of monetary policy worldwide.

In our previous article dedicated to analysing the evolution of investment in Spain, we focused on describing the pattern of investment by type of asset and by sector, and on comparing it with the euro area. In this second article, we want to focus on incentives for investment.

The tailwinds generated by the latest inflation data and strong labour markets coexist with a natural loss of cyclical momentum and, in particular, with an environment marked by high geopolitical risks. This combination of competing forces will determine the pace of growth over the coming quarters.

In an environment characterised since 2020 by a string of negative disturbances, the positive surprise in 2023 was once again the resilience of the global business cycle, understood as «the ability of a living being to adapt to a disturbing agent or an adverse state or situation», according to the definition of the Royal Spanish Academy.

Economic activity managed to rebound firmly and across the board in Q3, but the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections has led to a further tightening of mobility restrictions in many countries (especially in Europe), and most indicators suggest that economic activity will contract once again in the current fourth quarter. But
how much of a contraction are we talking about?

maintaining the tone of recent quarters, we continue to see more lights than shadows in the complex transition that the business cycle is currently immersed.

One of the sectors hardest hit by the restrictions on people's movement has been retail trade. However, internet sales are helping many businesses to cushion the impact of the crisis. This article examines the trend in online purchases in relation to face-to-face sales paid for by card via CaixaBank point-of-sale terminals.

Cautiously optimistic outlook for the international economy, but with a demanding risk map. The US stands out among advanced economies, while the euro area has not yet left behind its sluggish economic activity. Among emerging markets, India’s growth tops the BRICS, with China giving way to the new leader.

With all the attention at the start of the year focused on how the Fed and the ECB will go about implementing the shift in monetary policy, and with the feeling that the rate cuts could begin at different times on each side of the Atlantic, in recent weeks there have been certain developments that could shed some light on the agitated world of monetary policy.