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The announcement of a significant and widespread increase in tariffs by the Trump administration, coupled with an erratic and unpredictable economic policy, has triggered fears of a further slowdown in the global economy. In this context, it is time to re-evaluate where the Spanish economy currently stands, assessing its strengths and weaknesses in the new scenario.

The AIReF has ruled that the pension spending rule agreed with the European Commission has not been violated, although it has pointed out that complying with this rule does not guarantee the sustainability of the pension system or that of the general government as a whole. Moreover, it has warned that it will be necessary to increase government transfers to the Social Security system in order to sustain it between now and 2050.

In 2024, Spain reduced its exports to the European Union and the United States, so it had to seek out opportunities in new markets in order to diversify and strengthen its trade relations. These new markets primarily included countries in ASEAN, Latin America and the Caribbean Islands, as well as Oceania.

The savings of Spaniards went from 5,800 euros per household in 2023 to more than 7,000 in 2024. Why has the household savings rate increased and what do we expect for 2025?

As has been evident in recent weeks, there are few things more important than having a proper exit strategy once a mission comes to an end. This also applies to the economy, where the appropriateness of indefinitely maintaining the economic policy programme which, quite rightly, has been used for the past year and a half to address the crisis triggered by the pandemic is beginning to be questioned.

Political uncertainty, the main source of volatility in the market, reduced investors’ appetite for risk in June, resulting in a marked reduction compared to May, although it remained high.

The health situation and the lockdowns made 2020 an annus horribilis for Portugal's tourism sector: total profits generated by tourist accommodation establishments fell by almost 3 billion euros and the total number of guests fell by 61%.

Now, although the ECB has tightened the conditions required for an interest rate hike, there are more factors to support the idea that medium-term inflation could lie at 2%, and after more than a decade without doing so the ECB may finally raise interest rates.

In 2024, the global economy remained resilient in an environment marked by restrictive financial conditions and the major international economies managed to grow by more than expected. Nevertheless, 2025 is still set to be a challenging year: the threat of greater economic fragmentation has now been added to the risk map, with an increase in trade barriers and uncertainty.