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Agrifood exports have continued to perform very well during the pandemic within a context where international trade has been particularly hard hit by the crisis. Swine meat, fruit and some fresh vegetables have been in greatest demand, while the Basque Country and especially Aragon have been the regions posting the largest growth in exports between January and July 2020. Despite this favourable performance to date, however, the sector is keeping a close eye on developments in global trade tensions, especially between the US and EU and the Brexit negotiations.
The citrus fruit sector is one of the most important in the Spanish agrifood system and a leading player in international export markets. Its production structure is typically atomised, making it more difficult to modernise the farms, and the sector has some important challenges to tackle. In particular, strong competition from non-EU countries at a time when production costs are rising sharply, accentuated by a prolonged drought and the war in Ukraine. In any case, the figures suggest that Spain’s citrus production continues to be the most competitive in the world, thanks to its hard-won reputation as a product of the highest quality produced under the strictest health standards.
The agrifood sector contributes a lot of value to Spain’s economy, accounting for 5.8% of its GDP, 11% when all the activities in the food chain are included. It is also notable for its great export potential and a resilience that has helped it to weather the ups and downs of the economy over the years. Consequently, although the main markets for Spanish agrifood exports have slowed as a result of increased trade tensions and uncertainty over Brexit, available activity indicators show that, for the time being, the industry is withstanding the situation reasonably well.
Using anonymised and aggregated data from card payments made via CaixaBank point of sale terminals, we analysed whether there were any changes in tourist spending and found that the hottest areas of the country experienced slower growth in tourist expenditure between the high seasons of 2019 and 2023. We also found changes as well as changes in the pattern of expenditure during heat waves.
Although the summer months continue to account for a large part of tourist flows, travel outside the high season is growing more rapidly, especially among Europeans and among Spaniards with medium and high income levels.
The retail sector plays a very important role in an eminently service-based economy such as Spain’s, with a larger share compared to other European economies in terms of activity, jobs and number of firms. It is an atomised sector with a considerable number of SMEs and micro-SMEs and is particularly labour-intensive. Moreover, its presence is widespread throughout the length and breadth of our country. All this gives it a certain cohesive role, both from a social and territorial point of view, within the Spanish economy.
2020 has now been left behind; a year that will be remembered in the tourism industry as the toughest in recent history. In 2021, the fight against the pandemic continues and restrictions on movement and trade are still preventing normal economic activity, hitting tourism-dependent businesses particularly hard. However, the roll-out of the vaccines will provide a turning point once immunity is achieved among the population most at risk. Our projections point to a strong recovery in the sector during the second half of the year, resulting in tourism GDP growing by 80% annually, once again becoming one of the driving forces for the Spanish economy.
Financial inclusion guarantees people access to an appropriate level of financial services. The considerable decline in the number of bank branches in Spain in recent years has increased the risk of financial exclusion for some customers in rural areas. These customers tend to prefer a physical bank branch and specialised offers, especially in the business segment. Within this context, the role played by rural bank branches is twofold: they allow the banking sector to specialised offers in economic sectors critical to large parts of the region, such as agriculture, whilst also maintaining a commitment to financial inclusion.
The indicators show that the growth rate of Spain’s tourism sector is normalising after the exceptional figures of 2022-2024, driven by the post-pandemic recovery and the consequent rebound in the consumption of services. The trends observed at the end of 2024 are continuing in 2025: the sector remains attractive to a growing number of international tourists, while the presence of resident tourists in local destinations is diminishing in favour of increased prominence abroad. Even so, this year the sector will once again be key for the Spanish economy. According to our forecasts, tourism GDP will grow by 2.7%, thanks to the solid start to the year, the increase in household disposable income, the revival of some European economies and the moderation of tourism inflation.
More and more people are renting their home. In the past 5 years, the percentage of households renting their main home has increased significantly: from 16.1% in 2013 to 17.8% in 2018. This strong demand for rental property has pushed up prices, especially in large cities and tourist resorts, although in the past few quarters there has been a slight moderation. With a view to the future, the demand for rented accommodation is expected to remain strong and, to avoid more pressure on prices, supply will have to grow in line with this demand.
The real estate market is one of the main channels through which monetary policy is passed on to the real economy. Tighter financial conditions are feeding through to mortgage interest rates and are cooling down the demand for housing. Given the notable tightening of monetary policy over the past year in many of the advanced economies, in this article we document the change in trend in international real estate markets and analyse the extent of the adjustment that may lie ahead.
This year’s return to fiscal rules – as safeguards of the sustainability of public debt – and the persistent shortfall in investment needed to address the EU’s priorities in the current geopolitical context create a scenario marked by frictions that requires a coordinated fiscal strategy that far exceeds the horizon of national and EU political mandates, both in duration and ambition. Therefore, it is essential that the differences that exist, as well as some taboos that have characterised the EU’s economic history on other occasions, are overcome.
In 2021, supply problems have dominated the financial headlines. One of the most prominent problems has been the lack of chips, or semiconductors, which has caused many headaches across a range of sectors, including the automotive industry that is so key to European industry. In the face of increased structural demand for technological goods, is the supply ready for it?
A changing European labour market: the role of immigration and new jobs
Labour market & demographics
Active training policies, as well as the ability to attract talent in sectors with the greatest shortage of skilled personnel, will be key if the EU is to make progress in innovation and competitiveness and avoid falling behind its main competitors.
Undoubtedly, the negotiation of the next budget will once again test the health of the European project, on which our strategic autonomy needed to address the geopolitical challenges that will continue to come from abroad will depend.
Unlike the process of tracking the achievement of the milestones and targets laid out in the Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs), assessing where we are in their implementation becomes more complicated when we try to quantify their macroeconomic impact and their transformative capacity for the European economy. This is becoming more relevant given the challenges posed by the increasingly complex geopolitical scenario we face.
The outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, and more recently the war in Ukraine, has accelerated the trend of decoupling between the US and China, and Europe also appears to have joined in, albeit somewhat timidly for now. We analyse the EU’s dependence on China in order to understand whether European strategic autonomy is possible, or even desirable.
One of the big questions of the moment is whether the current rise in prices will spread to wages. To answer it, we analyse current wage dynamics in the euro area and what path they might follow in the future.