Investors closed the week with a risk-off mood as they continued to eye communication from central bank officials and the tensions in the Middle East. On the latter, though, the attack suffered by Iran on Thursday night had a moderate effect on the price of the barrel of Brent in a sign that the conflict escalation seems to be controlled, for the moment.
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The record figures achieved by tourism in Spain in the opening months of 2024 and the effects of climate change on the sector highlight the need to continue improving the management of tourism flows and to promote innovation and investment, in order to minimise the negative impacts caused by tourism activity and move towards a less seasonal, more sustainable model.
The Spanish tourism sector has entered a new phase of more moderate growth following years of strong expansion in the wake of the post-pandemic recovery. In this context, the restaurant industry continues its strong performance in 2025, with solid growth in spending, while US tourism shows signs of slowing down due to economic uncertainty.
The Spanish real estate sector consolidates its expansionary phase in 2025: sales are growing strongly, but supply remains insufficient to meet demand, especially in provinces with greater demographic pressure and tourist demand. In this latest report, together with the situation and outlook for the sector, we analyse in depth the accumulated housing deficit throughout the territory, as well as the new profile of non-resident foreign buyers.
Yesterday's session reverted the growing risk-on sentiment from last week, after developments during the weekend unveiled the fragility of the truce between US and Iran as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lasted less than 24 hours and the two parties have substantial differences in some of the points needed for an extension of the ceasefire.
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Supercompanies: a global phenomenon
The agrifood sector contributes a lot of value to Spain’s economy, accounting for 5.8% of its GDP, 11% when all the activities in the food chain are included. It is also notable for its great export potential and a resilience that has helped it to weather the ups and downs of the economy over the years.
In 2019, the positive trend will continue in the tourism industry although the past few years΄exceptional growth rates are expected to diminish, in line with the slowdown observed in 2018. The big challenge facing the industry will be to consolidate its excellent performance regarding inbound tourism over the past few years while shifting its focus onto higher value added segments.
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Currency war?
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Banking, under pressure
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Pensions: a necessary debate
COVID-19 is having a huge impact on economic activity in Spain and, in particular, on the tourism industry. At CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020, not returning to its pre-crisis levels until 2023. The outlook in 2020 is even grimmer for Spain's tourism industry as it is one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic.
Spain's manufacturing industry suffered a severe setback in 2020 but the data show a rapid recovery, pending the impact of the European NGEU funds and with the automotive industry as a benchmark and driver of technological transformation.
Activity in Spain’s real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump during the first lockdown. In Q3 2020, house sales and new building permits recovered much of the ground lost, a positive trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on house prices has been relatively moderate so far, although we expect these will continue to adjust in the latter part of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In particular, CaixaBank Research’s new house price forecasting models at the level of province, based on large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques, predict that house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow very moderately in the rest.
Investors ended the week on a negative note, extending the losses after the change of tone by the Fed during the 15-16 June monetary policy meeting. In stock markets, the S&P 500 edged down by 1.3%, reaching a 4-week low. Future prices and the heavy losses during the Asian session point to further declines on Monday.
Financial markets started the week with mixed results. Investors balanced out the risk from the COVID outbreak in Europe with the re-appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Fed president and the nomination of Lael Brainard as the next VP, signaling policy continuity at the helm of the central bank.
In the last session of the week, investors' sentiment kept the upbeat tone seen on Thursday following the decrease in the October US CPI inflation figures. Money markets continued to price a lower monetary policy tightening from the ECB and the Fed than the one implied before the CPI release.
The US Federal Reserve meeting centered the stage in yesterday's session with a 25bp interest rate hike, as expected by the consensus. The description of the economic outlook was very similar to June's, while the president Jerome Powell recognized that the last CPI inflation release surprised them slightly on the positive side.
In the last session of the week, investors focused their attention on the disinflationary pressures in the US, after December PPI unexpectedly declined by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% in the previous month). In this context, yields on sovereign bonds declined on both sides of the Atlantic, particularly so in the short-end of the curve.
In the first session of the week, investors continued to reassess their expectations on the upcoming easing of the ECB and Fed’s monetary policy stance. The January PMI and ISM data releases showed a stronger-than-expected start of 2024 that decreased further the probabilities of seeing the first rate cut in April and May for both central banks.