Spain’s tourism sector enjoyed rapid growth in 2024 and has support factors to continue expanding in 2025. These include the economic growth of the main source countries and the sector’s price competitiveness, as it continues to seek a reduction in its seasonality to avoid congestion during the peak season and increase the utilisation of the installed capacity. The good performance of the tourism sector will be key in ensuring that catering continues to enjoy its current level of buoyancy.
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The Spanish economy is facing the first half of 2026 from a position of strength, albeit with a clear moderation in growth following the strong dynamism of 2025 and amid a more adverse international context. The outbreak of the war in Iran has introduced a new supply shock that is affecting sectors unevenly, with a bigger impact on industry while domestically-oriented services are showing greater resilience. Despite this, the strength of domestic demand and progress made in modernising the productive base are allowing the impact to be absorbed without any significant deterioration of the cycle. In this issue, we analyse the main geopolitical and sectoral risks, the vulnerability of supply chains, and the role of entrepreneurship and investment in intangible assets as key pillars of resilience and medium-term growth.
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Banking union in the euro area
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Energy in the 21ST century
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The deleveraging of households and firms
The COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting economic activity and the real estate sector is also feeling the effects, albeit not as much as other sectors. Specifically, at CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020 and not to return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2023. However, despite the seriousness of the situation and the high uncertainty regarding how the pandemic will develop, it is important to note that the sector is supported by a much stronger foundation than in the previous crisis of 2008.
The impact of the crisis on the sector has therefore been limited and much less than initially expected, and activity in the residential market is recovering reasonably well from last year’s extraordinary downturn .
The rapid growth of Spain’s real estate sector during the first half of the year has led us to revise upwards our forecasts for 2024 and 2025. Even so, the mismatch between supply and demand will determine the sector’s behaviour, as it tackles major challenges such as climate change and the housing affordability problems for the young and the most vulnerable segments of society.
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Hawkish comments by officials from the ECB and the US Federal Reserve were the main drivers for investor sentiment in the last session of the week. In the euro area, Pierre Wunsch urged the ECB to speed up the reduction of its balance sheet and to stop reinvesting the maturing bonds while Joachim Nagel called for further interest rate hikes.
The global economic outlook centered the stage in yesterday’s session as investors focused on July’s flash PMIs. In the euro area, the soft growth momentum was visible in the fall of the services (51.1) and manufacturing (42.7) indices. In the US, the manufacturing PMI rose and got closer to the 50-point threshold, but the services PMI lost steam.
Despite the effects of the prolonged drought and the sharp rise in production costs, the current trend in Spain’s agrifood sector is one of moderate growth and its exports have managed to remain competitive and dynamic. Moreover, rural tourism is proving to be a good complement to agricultural activity, diversifying the sources of income for farms, which must nevertheless continue working to become more competitive and efficient in their use of resources.
Investors closed the week with a risk-off mood as they continued to eye communication from central bank officials and the tensions in the Middle East. On the latter, though, the attack suffered by Iran on Thursday night had a moderate effect on the price of the barrel of Brent in a sign that the conflict escalation seems to be controlled, for the moment.
The record figures achieved by tourism in Spain in the opening months of 2024 and the effects of climate change on the sector highlight the need to continue improving the management of tourism flows and to promote innovation and investment, in order to minimise the negative impacts caused by tourism activity and move towards a less seasonal, more sustainable model.
The Spanish tourism sector has entered a new phase of more moderate growth following years of strong expansion in the wake of the post-pandemic recovery. In this context, the restaurant industry continues its strong performance in 2025, with solid growth in spending, while US tourism shows signs of slowing down due to economic uncertainty.
The Spanish real estate sector consolidates its expansionary phase in 2025: sales are growing strongly, but supply remains insufficient to meet demand, especially in provinces with greater demographic pressure and tourist demand. In this latest report, together with the situation and outlook for the sector, we analyse in depth the accumulated housing deficit throughout the territory, as well as the new profile of non-resident foreign buyers.
Yesterday's session reverted the growing risk-on sentiment from last week, after developments during the weekend unveiled the fragility of the truce between US and Iran as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lasted less than 24 hours and the two parties have substantial differences in some of the points needed for an extension of the ceasefire.
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Supercompanies: a global phenomenon
The agrifood sector contributes a lot of value to Spain’s economy, accounting for 5.8% of its GDP, 11% when all the activities in the food chain are included. It is also notable for its great export potential and a resilience that has helped it to weather the ups and downs of the economy over the years.