The volatility in commodity prices since the outbreak of the pandemic continues to be a key factor for the economic outlook, given the implications for production costs and the prices consumers pay.
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We assess the situation of risk premia in the euro area periphery and the tools available to the ECB (flexible reinvestments under the PEPP and TPI) to curb their rise.
The new Strategic Project for Economic Recovery and Transformation («PERTE» project) approved by the government in May could provide a boost to the Spanish automotive industry, one of the hardest hit by the current shortage of microchips, which are increasingly necessary for the production of electric vehicles.
One of the hot economic topics of today is the impact that a tightening of the financial conditions will have on the cost of Spanish public debt. Since the beginning of the year, we have witnessed a rebound in euro area sovereign yields and in risk premiums of the periphery, including that of Spain. Thus, the question arises as to how sensitive the general government’s cost of financing will be to a changing and highly uncertain macro-financial environment.
The severe deterioration in the public finances as a result of the pandemic has reopened the debate about the need to reform EU fiscal rules.
We take a deep dive into the components of the consumer price index to determine whether the high inflation rates recorded in energy and food prices are spreading to the other components.
The transformation of the Spanish economy in the last decade has been particularly visible in the external sector. It went from losing competitiveness and running ever-increasing deficits between 1997 and 2007 (the current account deficit reached over 9% of GDP) to recovering competitiveness and maintaining a consistently positive foreign balance since 2012 (+1.8% on average over the period 2012-2020). To better understand how this transformation will help the economy after the pandemic, we analyse the trend in exports from a new perspective.
The interaction of the dynamics (and imbalances) that had been at play since the outbreak of the pandemic, with the new reality in the face of heightened geopolitical instability and rising rates, comprise a new and challenging scenario in which households, businesses and governments alike will need to adapt their decisions.
Oriol is Head of Spanish Economics at CaixaBank Research. With an Executive Development Programme from IESE Business School to his name, he also holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master’s degree in Economics and Finance from the Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI). He has published articles in internationally renowned academic journals, as well as papers on topics such as economic inequality, monetary policy, the real estate sector and financial stability, among others. He is Technical Secretary of the board of directors of the Cercle d’Economia.
María is an economist in the International Economics & Markets Department. Graduated in Economics and Master in Industrial Economics and Markets from the Carlos III University. Before joining CaixaBank, he worked as an analyst in the Economics area of Analistas Financieros Internacionales (Afi), as a research economist in the Department of Studies and Statistics of INVERCO and at Telefónica, and as a research assistant in the Research Service of the Bank of Spain. His areas of interest cover both macroeconomics and microeconomics and the use of quantitative tools.
Having laid out the complex trade relationship between the United States and China, we continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers, focusing on the European Union.
The international economy showed remarkable resilience in 2024 and the available data suggest that world GDP may have grown slightly above 3%. The tailwinds that supported economic activity will likely continue to blow in 2025, albeit with less strength and in the face of significant challenges.
In the last decade, the debate regarding the configuration and consequences of globalisation has gained prominence, with numerous voices advocating a rethink to either limit, reverse or reconfigure it. In this and the following article we analyse the course of these debates and the health of globalisation.
In our revision of the international forecast scenario, we maintain the assumption that the bilateral tariff between the US and the EU will be 10%. We also maintain the assumption that the tariffs between the US and China will reach a level of 60% in 2025 (an increase of 45 pps compared to December 2024), but now this increase is not anticipated to take place as gradually as we previously thought.
We examine the current state and the particularities of the commercial real estate sector in the United States, and the extent of the banking sector’s exposure, following the collapse in the share price of New York Community Bancorp.
After a much better-than-expected start to the year, the strength of the global economy will be tested once again in the coming months. The flexibility and coordination of economic policy in the face of these new challenges will determine the capacity of the current business cycle to overcome them.