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The Spanish economy is growing at a good pace – more so than expected – and this leads us here at CaixaBank Research to revise our growth forecasts for 2025 upwards from 2.3% to 2.5%. Despite the good news, the focus is not on the improvement in the forecasts, but rather on the uncertainty that surrounds them. 

The neutral interest rate is a key indicator for the orientation of monetary policy, the evolution of the financial markets and, in general, the formation of economic agents’ expectations. We delve into its definition and the level at which it stands today.

Between the 2nd and 5th of August, the financial markets experienced their most turbulent sessions in years, triggered by hasty fears of a US recession and an unexpected decision by the Bank of Japan that caused a spike in volatility. Since then the markets have turned a page, rendering those declines of early August no more than a scare and restating the soft-landing scenario as being the most likely.

Digital technologies permeate the debate on the future of the economy. Monetary policy and its main vehicle, money, are no exception. More and more products are sold over the internet and cash is used less and less. This new digital economy creates new demands on the financial sector and digital money emerges as a new means of payment that appeals to consumers. How does all this affect monetary policy? What can central banks do (and what are they doing) about it?

The interaction of the dynamics (and imbalances) that had been at play since the outbreak of the pandemic, with the new reality in the face of heightened geopolitical instability and rising rates, comprise a new and challenging scenario in which households, businesses and governments alike will need to adapt their decisions.

In this fourth and last article of the Dossier “Solidarity in Spain: snapshot of a committed society”, we analyse, in collaboration with Pompeu Fabra University, the change in the aggregate volume and in the number of donations that were made after the floods in Valencia based on CaixaBank banking transactions in order to better understand the charitable response to this emergency. 

The global economy sustains the momentum, but pockets of instability persist. The US faces the impact of the longest shutdown in its history; the euro area holds up but lacks momentum, and China’s slowdown is accentuated at the end of the year.

Looking ahead to 2026, geopolitics will continue to play a fundamental role, bearing in mind the reordering of the globalisation process in which the international economy has been immersed since the pandemic. Furthermore, the economy will continue to be exposed to the combination of new underlying trends (restrictions on trade and migration movements, AI boom, etc.) and short-term challenges (limited fiscal space, high valuations in financial markets, etc.).

The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the recent agreement signed between the US and Iran has significantly eased tensions in the energy markets, reducing the pressure that has been building on the economy and dispelling the spectre of a slowdown.

The new Strategic Project for Economic Recovery and Transformation («PERTE» project) approved by the government in May could provide a boost to the Spanish automotive industry, one of the hardest hit by the current shortage of microchips, which are increasingly necessary for the production of electric vehicles.

The strength of the Spanish economy allows for a degree of optimism in facing the coming quarters. Indeed, it is highly likely that the CaixaBank Research growth forecasts for 2026 will once again be revised upwards in the coming weeks. However, the data also reveal an underlying challenge. The economy remains resilient and continues to grow, but it is doing so in the context of an ageing Spanish workforce.

In October, the main stock market indices reached all-time highs, the dollar appreciated, sovereign debt yields declined and euro area peripheral spreads narrowed. Commodities exhibited disparity between the rise in metals and the decline in crude oil prices. The central banks fulfilled expectations: the Fed cut rates and the ECB kept them unchanged.

Political uncertainty, the main source of volatility in the market, reduced investors’ appetite for risk in June, resulting in a marked reduction compared to May, although it remained high.

Having overcome the crisis triggered by the pandemic, which caused debt-to-GDP levels to skyrocket, debt ratios have now resumed the downward trajectory they were on prior to COVID. In particular, in the private sector, both businesses and households already have lower levels of debt than before the pandemic and much lower than they had during the financial crisis of 2008. All this, together with the greater weight of fixed-rate debt, puts them in a less vulnerable position to cope with the rise in interest rates.

The severe deterioration in the public finances as a result of the pandemic has reopened the debate about the need to reform EU fiscal rules.

We take a deep dive into the components of the consumer price index to determine whether the high inflation rates recorded in energy and food prices are spreading to the other components.

Improving the visibility of the economy’s performance in the short term remains fraught with significant challenges in the medium term, in an environment in which we will see major transformations in the coming years.

The first cohort of baby boomers turns 65 in 2023 and in the coming years this entire generation will retire en masse. In this article, we will assess the state in which the baby boom generation is approaching retirement in Spain, both from a financial perspective and in terms of their emotional state and their health.

We explore some of the pension reforms implemented in other countries which, according to the economic literature and various international organisations, have best managed to navigate the uncertainty involved in ensuring the sustainability of the pension system.

Since the outbreak of the pandemic, household consumption has grown by an average of 2.0% annually in real terms, almost in line with its historical rate and the growth of the overall economy. The consumption of durable goods, in contrast, has grown at double that rate: 4.0% annually.