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The market’s first reaction to Trump’s and the Republican party’s victory in the US election was in line with expectations that their policies would lead to higher inflation in the medium term, as well as providing a certain boost to short-term economic growth.

The latest indicators depict an economy that remains resilient amid the entrenchment of the conflict in the Persian Gulf. Among the various channels through which this conflict can affect the economy, the most visible impact so far is in inflation, through the rise in energy costs.

We explore some of the pension reforms implemented in other countries which, according to the economic literature and various international organisations, have best managed to navigate the uncertainty involved in ensuring the sustainability of the pension system.

The severe deterioration in the public finances as a result of the pandemic has reopened the debate about the need to reform EU fiscal rules.

The first cohort of baby boomers turns 65 in 2023 and in the coming years this entire generation will retire en masse. In this article, we will assess the state in which the baby boom generation is approaching retirement in Spain, both from a financial perspective and in terms of their emotional state and their health.

The good growth data for the Spanish economy in the final stretch of 2024 lead us to revise upwards our GDP growth forecast for 2025. However, the greater likelihood of tariff tensions between the US and the EU invites us to remain cautious. In this regard, we expect the economy to grow by 2.5% in 2025, above the 2.3% we were previously predicting, albeit somewhat below the revision we could have made in the absence of this uncertainty factor.

One of the hot economic topics of today is the impact that a tightening of the financial conditions will have on the cost of Spanish public debt. Since the beginning of the year, we have witnessed a rebound in euro area sovereign yields and in risk premiums of the periphery, including that of Spain. Thus, the question arises as to how sensitive the general government’s cost of financing will be to a changing and highly uncertain macro-financial environment.

The Spanish economy is maintaining a good tone as 2024 draws to a close. The labour market is performing well despite the slight slowdown in November; inflation is picking up, driven by the most volatile components; the current account surplus continues to grow, and home sales are soaring.

Digital technologies permeate the debate on the future of the economy. Monetary policy and its main vehicle, money, are no exception. More and more products are sold over the internet and cash is used less and less. This new digital economy creates new demands on the financial sector and digital money emerges as a new means of payment that appeals to consumers. How does all this affect monetary policy? What can central banks do (and what are they doing) about it?

Global supply chains have been shaken once again following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent spread of the conflict to other countries in the Middle East. Subject to uncertainty over the shock’s severity and duration, this episode is shaping up to be the greatest disruption to international trade since COVID-19.

The US interest rates have risen steadily and significantly, galvanised by the Federal Reserve’s rapid and aggressive monetary tightening policies. However, this does not necessarily mean that US bonds are more attractive than their European counterparts. A key factor in the comparison is the exchange rate.

This article confirms, through the use of anonymised high-frequency internal data, how the interest rate hikes and cuts between 2022 and 2025 have affected Spaniards’ consumption. The results show that the monetary policy of the last cycle has clearly influenced household consumption in Spain, albeit with moderate intensity, and that interest rate cuts have had a tangible impact in boosting spending among households with variable-rate mortgages.

The most visible and immediate effect of the conflict has been on inflation, while the labour market shows a slower response to the shocks. The only area where the conflict has had a positive impact from a macroeconomic perspective is the tourism sector.

In the midst of the low season for much of the sector, the figures published month by month continue to confirm strong demand despite the challenging economic environment that is affecting the global economy, particularly the European one. Will this dynamic continue in the coming months?

In recent years, the discussion around critical commodities has emerged as a key element in the redefining of economic relations at a global level, in an environment marked by persistent geopolitical tensions. So-called critical minerals – such as rare earths, copper, or lithium – are key inputs for global industry and, specifically, for those sectors most closely linked to the green and digital transition. The demand for these commodities has grown sharply in recent years, as has the supply, driven by the largest global producers of many of these minerals, such as China, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

We analyse the stress in the labour market of the largest economy in the world: are there more companies wanting to hire or fewer workers? Most importantly, how can job supply and demand be rebalanced?