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Although the exposure of Spanish employment to US demand is limited in aggregate terms, its impact varies considerably from sector to sector. Activities such as manufacturing (especially in pharmaceuticals), air transportation, professional activities and ICT have closer links, together with the sale and repair of vehicles.
Last year, when we witnessed the heavy blow that the pandemic dealt to the economy, an intense debate began regarding what shape the recovery would take. The more pessimistic predictions opted for somewhat disheartening letters, such as L, W or K.
Behind the recent upheavals and volatility, the euro area and the ECB are making progress towards a new normal for the financial environment. In recent years, the ECB has reduced its footprint in the market by returning to conventional monetary policy and withdrawing forward guidance.
Although it is still very difficult to quantify the impact of the escalation of the war in Gaza on the world economy, what is clear is that one of the main focuses of attention falls on the oil market. So far, the financial markets have reacted relatively cautiously, although volatility has increased. In the crude oil market, there has been some upward pressure on prices.
The movement in the financial markets of recent weeks serves to consolidate the sensation that the interest rate regime will regain a degree of normality in the medium term, following the anomaly in the pattern of monetary policy in much of the last decade. This will mean higher real or equilibrium natural rates of interest than we have had in recent years.
Imelda is a senior economist in the Banking Strategy Department. With a Master's degree in Financial Markets from the Catholic Institute of Business Administration (ICADE), before joining CaixaBank she worked as director of financial systems at Bankia Research. Her main areas of research include the Spanish banking system, especially tracking business volumes, as well as the competitive and regulatory environment of the financial sector.
Erik holds the position of research assistant for the Department of Spanish Economy. He graduated with honors in Economics from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and has a Master Degree in International Trade, Finance and Development from the Barcelona School of Economics.
Isabella holds the position of research assistant in the Strategic Planning Department. She has a degree in Economics from the Autonomous University of Barcelona and a master's degree in Specialized Economic Analysis: International Trade, Finance and Development from the Barcelona School of Economics.
Alberto is a Senior Data Scientist in the Spanish Economics Department. A graduate in Particle Physics from the University of Turin, he was involved in searching for the Higgs boson when working as a doctorate student (University of Turin) with CMS at CERN in Geneva and as a postdoctoral researcher (University of Cantabria). Before joining CaixaBank he worked for 3 years for the consultancy firm AIA and a further 2 years for KDP, a joint venture between CaixaBank and AIA. His work at CaixaBank focuses on exploiting large amounts of data, both internal and from public sources, using machine learning technologies.
Roser is a senior economist in the Strategic Planning Department. She earned an MSc in Economics with Distinction from University College London (UCL). Before joining the Banking Strategy Department, she worked as an economist for the Research Dpt. and, before that, as an economist at a boutique firm specialising in macroeconomics, as well as for a risk capital investment fund. Her areas of study include the impact of climate change and technology in the banking sector.
Oriol is an economist at the Spanish Economics Department. PhD in Economics by the London School of Economics (LSE) and MSc in Economics and Finance by Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros (CEMFI). Before joining CaixaBank, he worked as economist specializing on UK and Southern Europe at the National Institute of Economics and Social Research (NIESR) and as graduate teaching assistant at the LSE. His main areas of expertise include macroeconomics, with an emphasis on fiscal policy, and specializes on model-based forecasts of Spanish GDP growth.
Carolina is Secretary to the Chief Economist, Enric Fernandez, as well as an Assistant in the Strategic Planning and Research Division. She has a degree in Journalism and a Master in Business Communication from Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, and has experience in the field of communication in a range of industries. Since joining CaixaBank she has worked in the Communication, Business and Senior Management departments. What she likes most about her job is being able to help the team in every way possible, with a positive attitude and desire to improve. A fan of nature, reading and cooking, she loves outdoor sports.
Ana Maria is an Assistant in the Strategic Planning and Research Division and carries out a variety of tasks to help and support various projects. With studies in administration, telephony and hairdressing, she also has extensive experience in customer service and sales after having worked at Decathlon and Telepizza. While at the company Taler she got to know the administrative world of the office in depth. A person who is engaged, very optimistic and with a great willingness to learn and overcome challenges every day. She loves travelling, dancing and enjoying the company of friends and family.
At a time when many countries are beginning to gradually lift the lockdown measures, and with the first estimates of GDP for Q1 2020, we can begin to glimpse the impact of the social distancing measures on the economy in this second quarter of 2020.