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Despite futures contracts indicating structurally higher oil prices in the coming years as a result of the biggest oil shock in history, markets also seem to be assuming a rapid normalisation of supply and demand conditions in the coming months.

The slowdown that is beginning to appear in the indicators is incorporated into the new CaixaBank Research forecasts, detailed in the following pages of this Monthly Report. Broadly speaking, the scenario anticipates positive activity growth, albeit more restrained between the second and third quarters of the year. Energy prices are expected to moderate by the end of 2026, according to oil and gas futures markets, which should lead to a slight re-acceleration of growth. 

Few economic topics have experienced as many twists and turns in such a short time as the tariff saga of Trump 2.0. In just 18 months, analysts (not to mention firms involved in international trade) have experienced a true roller-coaster: the iconic Liberation Day; the unprecedented escalation with China, with tariffs exceeding 100%; and the Greenland episode, amidst the usual threats to the EU.

Three and a half years later, Spain’s GDP has finally recovered to the pre-pandemic level. However, the recovery of the Spanish economy has not occurred in unison: some aspects have improved more quickly, while others are lagging further behind.

Behind the recent upheavals and volatility, the euro area and the ECB are making progress towards a new normal for the financial environment. In recent years, the ECB has reduced its footprint in the market by returning to conventional monetary policy and withdrawing forward guidance.

Spain’s economy continues to grow at a considerable rate, although the escalating conflict between the US and Iran is once again generating tensions.

The feeling is that we are close to a turning point, after which the effects of the monetary tightening process that have accumulated in the last year and a half.

The world economy ended the first half of 2023 with three major dynamics: economic activity remained resilient, inflation fell steadily in all major economies, and financial conditions continued to tighten.

Euro area inflation has been steadily declining for one clear reason: easing energy tensions. The question now is whether it will continue to fall rapidly towards 2% or whether it will encounter new pitfalls that hinder its downward path.

The Spanish economy will have to continue to navigate an adverse and complex international environment. But, for now, it has started the year on a good footing.