This month, we have updated our forecast scenario for the Spanish economy. Although we now expect growth to be slightly lower than previously anticipated, the message remains broadly positive and there are several elements sustaining the Spanish economy’s dynamic growth.
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This year, the ECB will not only continue to raise interest rates, but it will also reduce the size of its balance sheet. How will this reduction work and what consequences could it have for sovereign debt?
The Portuguese tourism sector is making headlines, with its exuberant statistics and optimism surrounding its future outlook. In this article we present the key figures of the tourism sector and their impact on the macroeconomic accounts.
The Spanish government has presented to parliament the Draft General State Budgets for 2022 and has sent to Brussels its Budget Plan showing a picture of the consolidated general government accounts. What lies behind these figures? In which categories will the deficit reduction be concentrated?
We analyse what impact the changes in energy prices triggered by the war in Ukraine could have on Spain’s GDP growth.
An end of the year with more questions than answers in the international economy
Recent developments
Although it is still far from the 2% target rate, inflation in both the euro area and the US has fallen steadily throughout 2023, and one of the key assumptions in our 2024 outlook is that it will continue to do so next year, facilitating the first interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB. But how robust is this disinflationary assumption? How much of a hurry are the central banks in to lower rates?
There is cause for alert... and concern. The trickle of negative news has been constant in recent months. If you have read the newspaper over the holidays, you will hardly have found a section that left you indifferent. Migration and humanitarian crises, political and social conflicts, and turbulence in the financial markets have occupied all the headlines. In this context, it seems that the economy should be weakening significantly.
In Spain, households have begun to reduce the savings accumulated during the pandemic in order to sustain their consumption levels in an environment of high inflation. The fall in the savings rate has also been reflected in Spanish households’ financial assets.
The government has presented its 2025 Annual Progress Report, which anticipates an improvement in the general government balance thanks to sustained economic growth, the end of the temporary tax cuts and the containment of expenditure.
We dedicate the dossier of the December issue to one of the major determining factors for social well-being and cohesion: inequality. Through the monthly monitoring of internal data that we have carried out since the pandemic, we are able to confirm the downward trend of inequality in Spain, contrary to that observed in the main developed economies, and we stop to examine the recent evolution of Spain’s middle class. In other articles of the report, also using internal data, we analyse the economic impact of the floods in Valencia and how households in Catalan municipalities in a state of drought adjusted their water consumption. In addition, we study the exposure of the Spanish, European and Chinese economies to tariff hikes in the United States.
Geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding foreign demand force us to reassess the strengths and weaknesses of exports in the Spanish economy. To do so, it is essential to analyse what we export, how diversified our range of products is, as well as how competitive it is. To improve our understanding, in this article we will analyse the complexity of the products that are exported, as well as their technological intensity, two key variables for assessing the competitiveness of our exports.
Although Spain’s exports have been surprisingly strong in the current context, this good performance stretches back a long time. It began during the financial and sovereign debt crisis of a decade ago, when many Spanish companies were forced to look abroad for business opportunities in the face of weak domestic demand.
The spring rally was dampened by signs of persistent inflationary pressures and a tightening of the hawkish tone among the major central banks, with rates expected to be «higher for longer».
The uncertainty generated by Brexit is already affecting economic growth (mainly in the United Kingdom, and in particular in the form of a suspension of investment projects) and it could hinder business relations with Spain in the short term.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia have highlighted the vulnerability of the global growth model to energy supply shocks.
We analyse the budget deficit reduction plan set out by the government in its 2023-2026 Stability Programme, based on a gradual reduction driven by the recovery of the Spanish economy, bringing it down from 4.8% of GDP in 2022 to 3.9% in 2023 and to 2.5% by 2026.
It is difficult to curb imports in order to defend local production while relying on them as a source of tax revenues. In fact, the more successful US trade policy is in restricting imports, the lower the revenues that can be expected.