Search results

In this article, we focus on analysing the past evolution and future outlook for potential GDP growth. This is a key variable, since it offers an indication of our economy’s underlying growth trend.In other words, it tells us how much the economy can grow by in a sustained manner in the absence of shocks if all of the economy’s productive capacity is used and no imbalances arise.

The relative improvement in international prices of agricultural goods has barely been reflected in global consumer prices. The main reason for this is the depreciation of many countries’ currencies against the dollar, which intensified with the Fed’s first interest rate hike.

We analyse recent developments and the outlook for public debt in the major advanced economies. While the United States, France and Belgium will continue to see an increase in their ratios, Japan and the United Kingdom could stabilise them. In contrast, the euro area periphery shows favourable conditions for reducing its debt, although it will require significant fiscal effort.

The risk premium on Portuguese debt has fallen significantly in the last 18 months and has remained well below those of Italy and Spain. What explains this dynamic?

Trade protectionism has been part of the new geopolitical normal for years now, but it has reached its peak in 2025 with the new US administration. In this more hostile environment and in the absence of an effective multilateral forum, the EU continues to make efforts to broaden its economic relations with different regions of the world. The strategy of diversification has become a valuable tool, not only in the search for markets with high export growth potential, but also in making progress towards the desired strategic autonomy.

In the third article of the Dossier «An analysis of European productivity», we conduct an in-depth analysis of the key economic factors driving productivity at the European regional level and their quantitative contribution.

This year, the ECB will not only continue to raise interest rates, but it will also reduce the size of its balance sheet. How will this reduction work and what consequences could it have for sovereign debt?

Gross disposable income is growing well above household spending in Spain, with the consequent improvement in household finances. We explain this increase and explore where the savings are being allocated.

We analyse what impact the changes in energy prices triggered by the war in Ukraine could have on Spain’s GDP growth.

In March, the bombings exchanged between Iran and the US and Israel caused significant stress in energy commodities; Brent crude oil fluctuated around 100 dollars per barrel throughout the month, while TTF gas did so between 50 and 60 euros per MWh. This points to a rebound of inflation and has led the markets to price in rate hikes at the ECB’s forthcoming meetings.

Despite the efforts made in recent years to reduce energy intensity in Europe and boost the role of renewables as alternative energy sources, the region remains sensitive to shifts in international energy prices. The current situation represents a new challenge, but also a new opportunity to accelerate the transition towards a sustainable and secure energy model.

The balance of the European Competitiveness Compass in 2026 is positive in terms of orientation and debate, but limited in progress, with key decisions still pending and with an uncertain future in a more complex geopolitical environment.

In Spain, households have begun to reduce the savings accumulated during the pandemic in order to sustain their consumption levels in an environment of high inflation. The fall in the savings rate has also been reflected in Spanish households’ financial assets.

In this article, we analyse the factors behind the recent evolution of Spain’s household savings rate and the outlook for 2026, in a context marked by the conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to higher inflation and potential interest rate hikes.

Technological change will change the payment system as we know it, and blockchain technology will probably play a very important role in this process by facilitating the emergence of digital currencies. What are the key aspects of the technologies that will enable this transformation? Which cryptocurrencies are most likely to succeed?

Since we began using Google, never before have we written the word «recession» so often in the search bar. The level of concern has surged throughout the world, including in Spain.

Although it is still far from the 2% target rate, inflation in both the euro area and the US has fallen steadily throughout 2023, and one of the key assumptions in our 2024 outlook is that it will continue to do so next year, facilitating the first interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB. But how robust is this disinflationary assumption? How much of a hurry are the central banks in to lower rates?

In April, the Portuguese government presented its Draft General Government Budget for 2022, following the formation of the new government after the early elections held in January, in which the Socialist Party obtained an absolute majority in parliament.