Dossier
The demographic challenge
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https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/monthly-report/394/october-2015/reto-demografico
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Post-reform peripheral Europe
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Immigration: impact and prospects
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Industry 4.0
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Tourism: travelling towards the future
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Consumption: new trends
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Outlook 2018
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New technologies and productivity
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Challenges facing central banks in the post-pandemic world
The Trump administration’s announcements of tariff hikes have raised the effective average US tariff on imports to its highest level in a century. Although the decision has been suspended for 90 days, with the exception of China, it reflects the destabilising potential of the measures announced and has triggered fears of a further slowdown in the global economy.
We are living increasingly longer and healthier lives – excellent news for all of us. However, this longevity, combined with a persistently low birth rate, is reconfiguring the demographic structure of our societies. In our latest Dossier, we analyse this important demographic shift, as well as its impact on growth, public finances, and savings and interest rates. We also analyse in depth other topical issues, such as the adjustment of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy and operational framework, the European Union’s 2025-2028 budget and the feasibility of it increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP. In the sphere of the Spanish economy, we lay out the causes of departures from employment and the evolution of the incomes of the middle class in recent years.
In this summer edition of the Monthly Report, we continue to focus on how the agreement between the US and Iran is reshaping the global economic outlook, although its fragile nature keeps uncertainty high. In the international arena, we analyse Kevin Warsh's appointment as Chair of the Federal Reserve and how European inflation has responded to the energy shock, with a clear direct impact but still contained indirect effects. We also examine the reform and investment needs identified in the European Semester in light of the end of the NGEU funds. In Spain, where the economy still has strengths to continue growing at a dynamic pace, we take a closer look at the unemployment rate, and we use high-frequency data to examine dining consumption habits and the effects of climate change on the loyalty of international tourists.
After the sharp downturn in the sector caused by the pandemic, the recovery of international tourism in Spain can now be considered almost complete. Among the world’s top 10 tourism destinations, Spain was the second to exceed its number of pre-COVID international tourists, behind only Türkiye.
Dossier
In pursuit of a less unequal recovery
The outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020 has had unprecedented repercussions in many areas of the economy. One of these has been household consumption, the main component of GDP and traditionally considered an indicator of the health of the economy and the well-being of society. Because of the restrictions on business and travel during the health crisis caused by COVID-19, the drop in consumption was much greater than during previous crises. The positive side is that once restrictions were lifted, Spain’s consumption has rebounded more sharply in 2021 than in the past.
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The response of wages to the rise in inflation
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2023 outlook
Spain’s tourism sector is in an advantageous position. However, the macroeconomic scenario poses a risk for the trend in tourism activity over the coming quarters.
Soft landing in times of political uncertainty and a year of improvement.
The record figures achieved by tourism in Spain in the opening months of 2024 and the effects of climate change on the sector highlight the need to continue improving the management of tourism flows and to promote innovation and investment, in order to minimise the negative impacts caused by tourism activity and move towards a less seasonal, more sustainable model.