Sentiment was mixed in yesterday's session amid a raft of economic data. In the euro area, slightly higher than expected Q2 GDP (0.6% yoy vs. 0.5% expected), with France (1.1% yoy vs. 0.7% expected) and Spain (2.9% yoy vs. 2.5% expected) leading the surprises, supported equity markets. Sovereign bond yields edged lower ahead of today's inflation data.
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Lower-than-expected inflation data on both sides of the Atlantic drove financial markets' sentiment. Preliminary figures from Spain and France showed headline inflation below 2%, at 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. In the US, the PCE price index fell to 2.2% from 2.5%, making solid progress towards the Fed's target.
Inflation eased below 2% in Germany and Italy in September (1.6% and 0.7% yoy, respectively), as it did in Spain and France. ECB President Lagarde remarked recent data has strengthened the central bank's confidence in the return of inflation to target, sending the probability implied by futures markets of a 25bp cut in the October meeting to 90%.
Revised inflation figures for Spain and France reaffirmed market expectations of a 25bp interest rate cut at this week's ECB meeting. And, while industrial production for the euro block rose in August and sentiment indicators improved in Germany, the data are unlikely to prevent the central bank from delivering a cut.
Investors digested a raft of economic data released during yesterday's session, including better-than-expected 3Q euro area GDP (+0.4% qoq) and a mild slowdown in 3Q US GDP (+0.7% qoq). In Spain, 3Q GDP rose by +0.8% qoq while inflation during October picked up to 1.8% yoy in October (1.5% last month).
Investors kicked off the week with a higher risk appetite. In the euro area, the initial negative reaction to Trump's victory began to fade, with equity indices rising across the region and sovereign bond yields falling. Peripheral speads narrowed only slightly and Fitch upgraded Spain's debt outlook from "stable" to "positive", and affirmed its A- rating.
Spain’s tourism sector enjoyed rapid growth in 2024 and has support factors to continue expanding in 2025. These include the economic growth of the main source countries and the sector’s price competitiveness, as it continues to seek a reduction in its seasonality to avoid congestion during the peak season and increase the utilisation of the installed capacity. The good performance of the tourism sector will be key in ensuring that catering continues to enjoy its current level of buoyancy.
The week started on a risk-off tone. Equities fell across the board, particularly in the US, as several Wall Street CEOs and major banks warned of potential drawdowns and concerns over overstretched valuations. European and Asian indices also declined, albeit more modestly, with Spain’s Ibex closing flat.
The Spanish economy is undergoing a period of solid, cross-cutting expansion, with balanced growth across sectors and remarkable resilience in the face of a complex international context. Furthermore, the reduction in temporary employment and the strong performance of the manufacturing industry, partly thanks to Spain's competitive energy advantage over Europe, are contributing to the current sectoral dynamism.
The Spanish tourism sector enters 2026 from a position of strength, with a positive outlook after the stabilisation of post-pandemic growth. In 2025, Spain consolidated its global leadership with 97 million international arrivals and record spending of €135 billion, ranking second worldwide. Tourism GDP grew by 2.7% and is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 2.5%-2.7% in the coming years. This scenario reflects a more balanced sector, marked by the diversification of destinations and deseasonalisation of demand. In addition, luxury tourism is positioned as a strategic segment to boost the sector's added value, and silver tourism is expected to deseasonalise demand and drive the growth of rural destinations. Moreover, the restaurant/catering sector will require a higher degree of professionalisation and more scalable business models to improve its resilience.
Mixed session to close off the week, with US investors reacting to President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, while euro area markets focused on stronger-than-expected economic data, including upside surprises in GDP growth from Spain and Germany.
Wednesday saw a mixed session, as easing geopolitical tensions drove down commodities and sovereign yields, while equities remained pressured by concerns around tech companies' valuations. In commodities, energy prices declined, led by Brent crude, while gold fell on the back of a stronger dollar and higher expected real rates.
European stock markets were mixed as they recorded moderate losses in Germany and France, remained stable in Spain and advanced in Portugal.
U.S. stock markets declined for the first time in the week while European stocks were mixed, with small losses in Germany, and moderate gains in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Markets ended the week with a relatively quiet session. The main U.S. and euro area stock market indices posted moderate gains, but in Spain and Portugal stocks suffered a small decline.
In fixed-income markets, U.S. and German sovereign yields ticked up. Sovereign spreads declined in Spain and Portugal but rose in Italy.
Stock markets were mixed, with slight gains in the Eurozone (with the exception of Spain's Ibex 35), a mixed behavior of the U.S.' main indices and small losses in emerging equities (which were driven by Latin American stocks and partially counterbalanced by Asian indices).
Investors digested the Fed's third rate hike of the year (see our detailed analysis of the meeting here) with moderate stock market gains, relatively unchanged sovereign yields, and a mixed behavior in FX markets, where the euro eased to $1.16 while some EM currencies appreciated (such as the Turkish lira the Brazilian real) and others weakened (such as Argentina's peso).
The agrifood sector contributes a lot of value to Spain’s economy, accounting for 5.8% of its GDP, 11% when all the activities in the food chain are included. It is also notable for its great export potential and a resilience that has helped it to weather the ups and downs of the economy over the years.
The growth in Spain's inbound tourism has been contained throughout 2019 due to the less favourable global economic environment and the strong recovery by its main rivals in the Mediterranean. However, the tourism sector's profitability looks highly resilient, supported by dynamic domestic tourism expenditure and the industry's drive towards higher quality.