In yesterday’s session, investors’ sentiment worsened following concerns of overvaluations in some risky assets and mixed economic data releases. In particular, August Composite PMIs came out weaker-than-expected in most euro area countries (Spain, Italy and France) and surprised positively in Germany, the US and China.
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European stocks edged down on Friday, while U.S. stocks notched gains despite posting a slight loss on the week as investors faced the reality of a second coronavirus wave in Europe and the uncertainty around further stimulus in the U.S.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid growing COVID-19 cases and better-than-expected Q3 GDP releases in the euro area (euro area aggregate +12.7 vs Consensus +9.6; Spain +16.7 vs Consensus +13.5%).
Investors traded with an optimistic tone ahead of the US Presidential elections as October's manufacturing sentiment data surprised to the upside in most regions. In particular, Spain's manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in the previous month to 52.8, the euro area's to 54.8 from 54.4 and the manufacturing ISM for the US rose to 59.3 from 55.4.
Investors traded cautiously in yesterday's session. The IMF updated its global economic forecasts – raising world GDP growth in 2021 to 5.5% but lowering the euro area's 2021 projections to 4.2% (-1.0pp). Spain's 2021 GDP growth forecast was lowered to 5.9% (-1.3pp).
European stocks and bond yields fell yesterday as Italy, France, Germany and Spain suspend vaccinations with the AstraZeneca vaccine over worries about the jabs' side-effects. Meanwhile, Italy has taken more stringent lockdown measures. The Eurostoxx50 was down by 0.1%.
European equities dropped as investors looked for the next catalysts to give the market direction. In Spain, shares of utility companies dropped over a draft bill the government is preparing that could drive down electricity prices.
In the first session of the week, investors extended the positive tone seen during last Friday. In the euro area, economic data releases came in better than expected (EZ Sentix Investor Confidence rose in June to 28.0 from 21.0 and Spain's industrial production rose by 1.2% mom in April).
Spain's manufacturing industry suffered a severe setback in 2020 but the data show a rapid recovery, pending the impact of the European NGEU funds and with the automotive industry as a benchmark and driver of technological transformation.
Investors’ morale improved again on the back of solid economic data reports. June PMI and ISM data in the euro area and in the US reflected that economic growth is gaining momentum and most manufacturing indices remained above the 60 points (EZ at 63.4, US ISM at 60.6, Spain’s at 60.4, +1 pp from the previous month).
Esperamos que el dólar mantenga su fortaleza frente al euro en los próximos trimestres. La resiliencia de la economía estadounidense nos lleva a descontar una Fed más restrictiva a corto y medio plazo de lo que veníamos anticipando, lo que debería dar cierto soporte al dólar. Además, esperamos que los precios de la energía se mantengan por encima de los niveles previos al conflicto, favoreciendo los términos de intercambio de EE. UU., una economía exportadora neta de petróleo y gas natural. Por otro lado, su sector tecnológico debería seguir atrayendo inversión extranjera, aunque este factor podría mostrar una mayor volatilidad a corto plazo. En contraste, tanto el ciclo como la inflación de la eurozona están comparativamente más expuestos al conflicto en el estrecho de Ormuz, lo que limita la capacidad del BCE para subir tipos de interés.
The Colombian economy has shown signs of stabilising in recent quarters. The upturn in activity is being supported by private consumption, which is 6 pp above its pre-pandemic level, thanks to a strong labour market – with the unemployment rate remaining below the historical average – and rising real household incomes, boosted by the increase in the minimum wage (+23% since 2023) and the expansion of social programmes.
Los datos de inflación de EE. UU. de noviembre sorprendieron de forma significativa a la baja: la general cayó 0,3 p. p. respecto a la inflación de septiembre hasta el 2,7% interanual, y la inflación núcleo, que excluye alimentos y energía, se moderó 0,4 p. p. hasta el 2,6%, su nivel más bajo desde marzo de 2021. La caída de la inflación se explica, sobre todo, por la moderación de la inflación de los servicios, y el desglose por componentes muestra una tendencia desinflacionista ampliamente generalizada en el resto de la cesta del IPC, con la única excepción de los precios energéticos. No obstante, el dato debe interpretarse con cierta cautela, pues el cierre del gobierno federal impidió la recolección de datos de octubre y retrasó el trabajo de noviembre.
The Australian economy lost some momentum in Q3, with real GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (vs. 0.7% in Q2), slightly below the 0.6% anticipated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and the year-on-year rate rose by 0.1% to 2.1% (due to the upgrade of the previous quarter).
Chile is growing at around its potential rate (2.6% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026). The country’s fundamentals – fiscal rule, credible monetary policy, market access and investment grade credit rating – remain robust and, despite being patchy, the labour market recovery has allowed consumption to improve thanks to real wage growth (due to the increase in the minimum wage and the gradual reduction in working hours).
Monthly analysis of Spain’s economic and financial outlook and its long-term prospects.
Monthly analysis of Portugal’s economic and financial outlook and its long-term prospects. Available in English.
La reunión de hoy del Consejo de Gobierno (CG) del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) no ha deparado grandes novedades.
Inflation was up to 2.6% in April, three tenths higher than in March.