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The Spanish economy has shown a positive tone in the opening months of 2025, driven, above all, by the revival of domestic demand. Although growth is expected to be slightly more moderate than last year, the decline in inflation and interest rates will act as important support factors in an international context marked by uncertainty. The CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator reflects this buoyancy in the opening months of the year and shows an increase in the number of sectors in expansion, although the picture is somewhat mixed.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/sectoral-observatory/growth-services-sustains-strength-spanish-economy-2025

2020 has now been left behind; a year that will be remembered in the tourism industry as the toughest in recent history. In 2021, the fight against the pandemic continues and restrictions on movement and trade are still preventing normal economic activity, hitting tourism-dependent businesses particularly hard. However, the roll-out of the vaccines will provide a turning point once immunity is achieved among the population most at risk. Our projections point to a strong recovery in the sector during the second half of the year, resulting in tourism GDP growing by 80% annually, once again becoming one of the driving forces for the Spanish economy.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/beginning-necessary-recovery

One of the variables with the greatest impact on consumption decisions are prices, which fell on aggregate by 0.3% in 2020 in Spain according to official data.25 However, there were marked changes in consumption patterns last year, making it very difficult to accurately measure the figure actually faced by consumers. CaixaBank’s own estimates based on high-frequency internal data suggest that inflation was somewhat higher, namely 0.1%.26 Moreover, inflation did not affect everyone equally, with differences depending on age and income.

  • 25We have analysed inflation using the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) produced by the National Statistics Institute.
  • 26Other studies also using high-frequency data have found a difference with respect to the official inflation data between April and December 2020 of 0.06 pp, 0.30 pp and 0.58 pp for the United Kingdom, Canada and United States, respectively, and between April and September of 0.60 pp for France (in our study for Spain, the estimated difference for both periods is 0.58 pp and 0.67 pp, respectively). See «Consumption shifts and inflation measurement during COVID-19», OECD, Statistical Insights (2021).
https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/inflation/what-was-spains-inflation-rate-2020

The pharmaceutical industry is a key and strategic sector for Spain’s economy, as was clearly demonstrated by the pandemic. In the past 25 years, the sector has become hugely significant and an important driver of Spanish exports and private R&D investment. Nevertheless, its production capacity still has room for improvement. The future of Spanish industry should be more closely linked to the pharmaceutical sector with a commitment to promote its growth, not only for strategic purposes but also for purely economic reasons, since it is an extremely competitive industry with a great capacity to generate good quality jobs that would help to modernise Spain’s economy.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/industry/spanish-pharmaceutical-industry

In this article we use a novel approach to analyse the potential of Spanish renters who could afford to buy a property. For Spain as a whole, we estimate that around 49% of renters have a high enough income to purchase a home. However, only 13% have the necessary savings. While there are significant differences between provinces and municipalities, in all regions it is clear that insufficient savings capacity is the main constraint faced by renters to buying their own home.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/buy-or-rent-question-income-particularly-savings-capacity

The situation in the tourism sector improved considerably during the summer season. Vaccinations have represented a clear turning point, leading to the lifting of restrictions and the recovery of travel in Europe, as well as keeping the pandemic under control. The indicators for demand, supply and even prices confirm a radical change in the situation, not only in Spain but also in the countries around us. This good summer harvest encourages us to be optimistic about the coming months, when we expect to see a consolidation in the recovery that should ensure 2022 will once again be a good year for Spain’s tourism industry.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/promising-summer-harvest-spains-tourism

Climate change and the struggle to prevent it pose enormous challenges for agrifood production in Spain. In turn, improving the sustainability and resilience of the sector will be key to achieving the environmental targets set out in the European Green Deal. Agri-environmental indicators show that, despite some progress in recent years, the sector needs to tackle significant aspects, such as reducing the use of chemical pesticides, fertilisers and antimicrobials in agriculture, as well as improving animal health and welfare, increasing efficiency in the use of energy and water resources, promoting food consumption that is more sustainable and healthier and reducing food loss and waste, fostering a circular economy. The new CAP, with eco-schemes as its key measure, and the Next Generation EU funds will support the sector’s green and digital transition.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/agrifood/how-agrifood-sector-becoming-more-sustainable

The collapse of tourism in Spain in the wake of COVID-19 has pushed the tourism industry to undertake major price adjustments and the hotel sector has been the greatest exponent of this trend. According to data from the National Statistics Institute, the price per room per day charged by hotels in the summer of 2020 was 16% lower than the previous year. However, this huge price cut does not seem to have played a decisive role in reviving demand in some regions. The change in travel preferences brought about by the pandemic has meant that tourists have opted for nearby, familiar and less congested destinations, focusing less on price and thereby limiting the success of big reductions in hotel prices.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/tourism/cut-price-tourism-role-played-hotel-rate-adjustments-recovery

Spain’s automotive sector is trying to find its place in the new global ecosystem, having overcome the adverse environment of recent years, marked by the international supply problems affecting essential inputs such as microchips and semiconductors, as well as increases in prices and interest rates.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/sectoral-observatory/automotive-sector-spain-challenge-remaining-competitive-new

The umpteenth change in the economic narrative in recent months – this time going from soft landing to no landing – appears to work in favour of the central banks’ intention to stay on the current course, to continue to raise rates and, once the peak is reached, to remain in restrictive territory for longer than previously expected.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/financial-markets/soft-landing-no-landing-interest-rates-higher-longer

Despite being the world’s largest consumer of commodities, China lacks certain essential materials and relies heavily on imports, especially of oil, natural gas, copper, aluminium and nickel. To address this dependency, the country has implemented a long-term strategy that includes the stockpiling of strategic reserves, which could affect global commodity prices.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/commodities/china-and-stockpiling-commodities-strategy-or-growth

There is increasing pressure on the ECB to start raising interest rates, something that has not happened since 2011. However, in the current context of an economic slowdown with a multitude of downside risks, is it desirable for the ECB to begin to normalise its monetary policy in the coming months? Would it be better to wait for economic growth to recover?

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/rate-hikes-euro-area-under-microscope

The outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, and more recently the war in Ukraine, has accelerated the trend of decoupling between the US and China, and Europe also appears to have joined in, albeit somewhat timidly for now. We analyse the EU’s dependence on China in order to understand whether European strategic autonomy is possible, or even desirable.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/eu-and-china-mapping-out-strategic-interdependence

Undoubtedly, the two key questions on investors’ minds and the central theme of the financial markets for much of the year – particularly in the last month – have been when the ECB and the Fed will lower interest rates and how many times they will do so in 2024. Thus, in May and early June the markets saw volatility in financial asset prices as investors sought clarity on the central banks’ future decisions.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/financial-markets/uncertainty-interest-rate-outlook