The Spanish economy grew by 5.0% in 2021, a large figure by historical standards but slightly below expectations, considering that GDP growth rates closer to 6.0% had been forecast at the beginning of the year. Several factors, both internal and external, have moderated the strength of this economic recovery. Among the internal factors is the somewhat slower than expected implementation of the NGEU programme, leading to a modest recovery in investment. External factors include higher energy costs and problems in global supply chains, both of which have been considerably aggravated by the war in Ukraine.

Construction costs in Spain have increased considerably since January 2021, a rise that was prompted by the strong recovery in global demand as the economy reopened after the pandemic but was further aggravated by the outbreak of war in Ukraine. In recent months, however, the price of industrial metals on international markets has fallen sharply and the futures markets point to prices stabilising to some extent. Given this situation, the cost of construction materials in Spain is expected to moderate in 2023.

The automotive industry is an important driver of growth and prosperity worldwide due to its contribution (i) in social terms, by facilitating people’s mobility in an efficient, safe and affordable way, and (ii) in economic terms, as a driver of innovation, a generator of good quality jobs and a pillar of international trade. In the case of Spain, it has become a mainstay of our industry and a benchmark on a global scale, thanks to a large production capacity and high productivity resulting from a skilled workforce and a great degree of plant automation. The economic crisis caused by the pandemic has taken its toll on a sector that is in the midst of a technological transformation towards electrification. A necessary transition that will be strongly supported by the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds.

The citrus fruit sector is one of the most important in the Spanish agrifood system and a leading player in international export markets. Its production structure is typically atomised, making it more difficult to modernise the farms, and the sector has some important challenges to tackle. In particular, strong competition from non-EU countries at a time when production costs are rising sharply, accentuated by a prolonged drought and the war in Ukraine. In any case, the figures suggest that Spain’s citrus production continues to be the most competitive in the world, thanks to its hard-won reputation as a product of the highest quality produced under the strictest health standards.

The retail sector plays a very important role in an eminently service-based economy such as Spain’s, with a larger share compared to other European economies in terms of activity, jobs and number of firms. It is an atomised sector with a considerable number of SMEs and micro-SMEs and is particularly labour-intensive. Moreover, its presence is widespread throughout the length and breadth of our country. All this gives it a certain cohesive role, both from a social and territorial point of view, within the Spanish economy.

In 2021, a milestone was reached that was hard to imagine a year ago: the mass vaccination of a large part of the population in advanced countries. Although new waves of infection are occurring, in those countries where population vaccination levels are higher it is likely that activity and travel restrictions as severe as those that have set the pace of economic development since the outbreak of the pandemic will not have to be reimposed.

After the strong recovery undergone by the tourism sector last summer, the activity indicators published up to December showed no signs of slowing down. Demand, supply and prices all maintained the good performance observed in the summer and even continued to improve, further closing the gap with their pre-COVID levels. However, this positive trend has had to contend with another wave of COVID infections.

According to the new CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator, the most energy-intensive branches of the manufacturing industry and the agrifood sector are the ones which suffered the most in 2023. At the other end of the spectrum we find sectors such as hotels and restaurants and the automotive industry, which performed rather well.