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The Spanish housing market is in the midst of a boom, driven by lower interest rates, the improvement in purchasing power and population growth. Demand continues to grow sharply, with foreign buyers playing a notable role, while supply is also steadily gaining traction, although it still does not compensate for the housing deficit accumulated since 2021. House prices continue to accelerate, now exceeding the peak reached in 2007 in nominal terms, and signs of overvaluation are beginning to become apparent. However, the current context differs from the one prior to the bursting of the housing bubble: rather than an oversupply, there is a serious housing deficit, and that is what primarily explains the pressure on prices; moreover, households, the construction and developer sector, and the financial system are in a strong financial position. We expect prices and sales to remain dynamic in the coming quarters, underscoring the need to increase the supply of affordable housing.

The demand for housing among non-resident foreign buyers has grown sharply in recent years, especially after the pandemic, consolidating itself as one of the main drivers of Spain's real estate market. This boom is a response to several attractions which Spain has to offer, such as economic stability, the perception of security, good connectivity and a real estate offer that remains competitive. The profile of these buyers and the areas of interest have diversified, with an increase in the variety of nationalities and chosen locations: the influence of the United Kingdom has reduced, Poland is in the top 5 buyer nationalities, interest from the US and Latin America is on the rise, and new centres of interest are emerging in less traditional areas, such as Castellón, Asturias, Huelva and Córdoba.

The economic policies implemented during the pandemic have cushioned the impact of the crisis on families’ financial situation. On the one hand, a further fall in household income has been avoided while, on the other, the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy has led to a reduction in debt interest payments. A detailed analysis of the effort required by households to pay off their mortgages, based on CaixaBank’s own internal data, duly reweighted to be representative of the Spanish population, shows that these measures have managed to reduce the mortgage burden during the pandemic for most households, although pockets of vulnerability still remain among low-income households.

Activity in the real estate market is recovering from the extraordinary slump experienced during the strictest months of lockdown. House sales picked up notably in the first few months of 2021 while new building permits continue to recover gradually. On the other hand, house prices have accentuated their downward trend observed since mid-2018. Nevertheless, their performance was surprisingly resilient during the pandemic, particularly the prices for new builds, and we expect house prices to continue posting moderate but steady gains in the coming quarters.

International tourism tends to be the main focus of attention when we talk about Spain’s tourism industry. However, domestic tourism also plays an important role: Spaniards travel more than 175 million times a year within Spain and generate an associated tourist expenditure of 30,000 million euros1. In this article, we examine the recent trends in Spain’s domestic tourism and discuss the main differences between domestic and international tourists.

Despite COVID-19, house prices in most advanced economies rebounded in 2020, largely thanks to the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies introduced to revive economic activity.

The outbreak of the pandemic has changed the scenario for investment in retail-related property. On the one hand, severe mobility restrictions and social distancing measures have lowered prices and rents for commercial premises, reducing investor interest. On the other hand, COVID-19 has brought about a change in the habits of Spanish consumers that has benefited supermarkets, where investment reached record highs in 2020, and has accelerated the penetration of online commerce in the retail sector, boosting investment in the logistics required to support this sales channel.

It is inevitable that the property development and construction sectors, which are very sensitive to economic conditions and confidence levels, will contract significantly this year. We expect a notable decline in new building permits and a severe impact on employment in the construction industry. However, the nature of the shock and the state of the sector before the appearance of COVID-19, much more favourable than a decade ago, suggest it should be able to recover.

Spain’s automotive sector is trying to find its place in the new global ecosystem, having overcome the adverse environment of recent years, marked by the international supply problems affecting essential inputs such as microchips and semiconductors, as well as increases in prices and interest rates.

After a year in which demand for housing exceeded all expectations, in 2023 we predict that the number of sales will adjust significantly, mainly due to the impact of higher interest rates. House prices, which tend to respond rather slowly to any fall in demand, will slow markedly although we expect them to maintain a slightly positive growth rate in 2023 (albeit adjusting in real terms due to high inflation). The supply of housing, which is insufficient to meet structural demand due to the creation of new households, will remain very limited as a result of the economic slowdown, high construction costs and waning demand.

The Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (PRTR) for the Spanish economy could be an important catalyst for the real estate sector. With the help of European funds, the government plans to recondition half a million homes between 2021 and 2023, with the aim of improving their energy efficiency and thereby helping to achieve the agreed decarbonisation targets. The General State Budget (PGE) also proposes a notable increase in the funds allocated to increase the amount of rented social housing, a policy that is crucial as rents have become even less affordable for the most vulnerable members of the population.

Activity in the real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump between March and June. House sales and new building permits have regained much of the ground lost in Q3 2020, a trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. House prices, whose trend is still weak but without any extreme corrections, are expected to follow a similar trend in the coming quarters, ending 2021 with a decline of around 2%.

CaixaBank Research has developed new models for forecasting house prices at the level of province using large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques. According to these models, house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow only very moderately in the rest. Comparing current forecasts with those projected by the models before the pandemic, a notable correction can be seen in the expected growth of house prices in one year’s time, approximately 4 pp on average. This correction has been more pronounced in provinces with a higher urban concentration and greater dependence on foreign tourism, although they are still the most dynamic in spite of this.

Foreign demand for housing in Spain has performed exceptionally well after the pandemic. In 2022, foreigners bought 90,000 homes in Spain, 46% more than in 2021. In line with this good performance, the number of mortgages taken out by foreigners also increased and reached 30,000 in 2022, so that one in three foreign buyers took out a mortgage in Spain last year. Foreign residents tend to buy homes and take out mortgages for a similar amount as Spaniards. On the other hand, non-resident foreigners tend to opt for more expensive properties and, consequently, the average mortgage taken out by foreigners is higher, although there are notable differences depending on nationality and autonomous region. The value of mortgages taken out by foreigners in the Balearic Islands is particularly high while, in terms of nationality, Swedes and Americans tend to take out the largest mortgages.

The interest rate hikes being implemented by central banks in order to combat inflation are leading to concerns regarding the impact such tighter financial conditions may have on real estate markets. In many developed economies, house prices have risen considerably in recent years, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic, fuelling fears of real estate bubbles. Given this situation, the authorities in several countries have implemented a series of macroprudential instruments to cool down their market. However, in Spain the risk of a real estate bubble appears to be contained.

We use internal data to analyse the behaviour of foreign visitors who stay in Spain for long periods of time. This is a segment of the population that tends to stay in second homes, seasonal rental homes or specialist accommodation – segments that are experiencing rising demand in Spain’s real estate market.