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Sentiment deteriorated as stalled US–Iran negotiations and reports that Washington may be preparing for a prolonged conflict pushed energy prices sharply higher. Meanwhile, the Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, but highlighted rising inflation risks, with the statement drawing three dissents from officials opposed to maintaining an easing bias.

Yesterday’s session saw a sharp turnaround in sentiment. Markets initially opened under pressure, with equities declining and sovereign yields rising amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices. Sentiment shifted after President Trump announced a temporary halt to planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, following reports of constructive talks between the Washington and Tehran. Brent prices quickly fell just below $100/barrel.

Risk-off sentiment drove markets after a weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market report (nonfarm payrolls +22k in August, and June-July revised down to a cumulative +66k [prior: +87k]). Advanced-economy stock markets declined and sovereign yields dropped amid stronger market expectations over Fed cuts. The euro strengthened above $1.17 and gold rose.

Yesterday's session was marked by late optimism after President Trump called off the US-planned strikes on Iran, after reportedly having advanced negotiations with Tehran. Brent crude prices dropped nearly 3%, to settle just above $90/bbl, while gold rebounded more than 3%, being priced above $4200/ounce at session-ending.

Investors shifted gears across asset classes on Friday, as the US employment report showed robust job growth in May for a third month in a row. The resilient labour market and inflation risks led markets to fully price in a Fed rate hike by year‑end. US Treasury yields rose accordingly, especially at the short end, further flattening the curve.

Investors started the week with mixed results, taking on board hawkish commentaries by some ECB officials and news reporting that the US government may announce a decision to lift certain tariffs on Chinese imports.

Risk aversion returned to the fore during a volatile session on Tuesday, as investors reassessed the risk of a global recession amid ongoing disruptions in gas supply in Europe and reports of new COVID cases in some regions in China.

Risk appetite extended across markets on Thursday, as fears about inflation and monetary tightening eased following soft labour data in the US (weekly jobless claims rose to the highest level since January). Meanwhile, news reported that China’s government is considering more fiscal support by raising by $220bn the issuance of special bonds.

U.S. stock markets registered strong gains during the last day of the week due to economic optimism after the publication of the U.S. jobs report that showed a solid increase in employment, with 313,000 jobs created in February.

Investor sentiment improved on the back of hope of progress in the negotiations between China and the U.S. According to media reports, Chinese officials are open to accept a partial deal, although a broader one is unlikely.

Risk aversion took over the session amid disappointing economic indicators and as media reports suggested that the U.S. and China are struggling to resume negotiations.

Investors started the week trading cautiously, taking on board weak sentiment data, hawkish commentary by some ECB officials and news reporting that Russia is due to reduce gas supplies to Europe.

Financial markets had a mixed session as traders weighed incoming macro data and corporate earnings announcements to gauge the state of the economy. The JOLTs report showed that US job vacancies fell in September, while the Conference Board consumer confidence for October surprised to the upside (as did the German Gfk sentiment index for November).

Yesterday’s session centered around the June inflation report from the US: inflation cooled to 3.0% in June (from 3.3% in May) and core inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.4% last month. On a monthly basis, prices fell –0.1%, the first negative rate in four years. Markets are discounting two interest rate cut from the Fed in 2024, and a 40% probability of a third cut.

Financial markets experienced a risk-on session on Friday as the US employment report for September came in better than expected, shrugging off geopolitical concerns. The strength of the labour market underlined the dynamism of the economy and eased pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively to support the economy.

Financial markets had a mixed session yesterday, although the overall mood among investors remained gloomy as they await today's U.S. inflation report for August, which is expected to show easing price pressures. Government bond yields fell across the board on both sides of the Atlantic.

Market sentiment was dampened by weak investor confidence data in Germany (ZEW index dropped to 7.4 from 13.1 in the previous month), where also Chancellor Scholtz announced elections will be held in February after the ruling coalition collapsed last week. Sentiment was further dampened by caution ahead of today's inflation report in the US.

Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious note as they await the ECB's Governing Council meeting (on Thursday), widely expected to lower interest rates by 25bp, and US inflation figures for November (released on Wednesday), a key report for the Fed's decision next week.

In the last session of the week, investors continued to trade with a risk-on mode, taking on board the fall in HICP inflation in the eurozone (9.2% in December after 10.1%) and the US employment report for December. On balance, the data suggested central banks will continue hiking policy interest rates but likely at a reduced pace.

In the first session of the week, investors digested the US employment report and the HICP inflation data released last Friday together with comments from central bank officials. In particular, San Francisco's Fed President Mary Daly said that a 25bp or 50bp hike in the next meeting are both on the table and pointed to a terminal rate over 5%.