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Investors closed the week trading with a risk on mood. Sentiment was supported by news reporting that the Chinese government may scrap some COVID restrictions affecting the airline sector. In addition, investors shrug off the upside surprise in the pace of job creation in the US (+261.000 in October versus 200.000 expected by the consensus).

Investors continued to trade with a cautious mood on Wednesday, as results from the US midterm elections suggested the Republicans may gain control of the House but the Democrats could hold on the Senate. Investors were also taking position ahead of a crucial CPI inflation report in the US today.

U.S. sovereign yields advanced, the USD strengthened moderately and stocks rose after a solid labor market report and as House Republicans came together to pass Trump's budget bill (OBBBA). Investors trimmed expectations about Fed cuts, with market-implied odds of a July cut down to 5% from 25%, and futures on December 2025's FFR rose over 10bp.

In yesterday’s session, markets digested mixed economic data from the US. The ADP monthly employment report showed hiring at private companies grew at the slowest pace since the beginning of the year, a sign the labor market might be cooling. Instead, the sharp rise in the ISM services index from 49.4 to 53.8 pointed to a rebound in the sector.

Financial markets experienced a risk-on session on Friday as the US employment report for September came in better than expected, shrugging off geopolitical concerns. The strength of the labour market underlined the dynamism of the economy and eased pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively to support the economy.

Risk-off mode took over financial markets on Friday, as the US employment report showed a cooling labour market. Hiring in the US is slowing down, but not falling off a cliff, so implicit interest money market rates are still discounting a 25 b.p. cut from the Fed at its September meeting.

Financial markets had a mixed session as traders weighed incoming macro data and corporate earnings announcements to gauge the state of the economy. The JOLTs report showed that US job vacancies fell in September, while the Conference Board consumer confidence for October surprised to the upside (as did the German Gfk sentiment index for November).

Yesterday’s session centered around the June inflation report from the US: inflation cooled to 3.0% in June (from 3.3% in May) and core inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.4% last month. On a monthly basis, prices fell –0.1%, the first negative rate in four years. Markets are discounting two interest rate cut from the Fed in 2024, and a 40% probability of a third cut.

Subdued trading on financial markets on Tuesday ahead of today's US CPI report and tomorrow's ECB meeting. Eurozone government bond yields were flat, while US yields edged slightly higher. On the data front, US unit labour costs rose 0.8% in Q3 (below an expected 1.3%), while the NFIB business confidence index rose to its highest level since June 2021.

In the last session of the week, investors continued to trade with a risk-on mode, taking on board the fall in HICP inflation in the eurozone (9.2% in December after 10.1%) and the US employment report for December. On balance, the data suggested central banks will continue hiking policy interest rates but likely at a reduced pace.

In the first session of the week, investors digested the US employment report and the HICP inflation data released last Friday together with comments from central bank officials. In particular, San Francisco's Fed President Mary Daly said that a 25bp or 50bp hike in the next meeting are both on the table and pointed to a terminal rate over 5%.

In yesterday's session, investors continued to trade with a risk-on mood, taking position ahead of potential surprises in the crucial CPI inflation report in the US due to be released today. The headline index is expected to decline m/m, increasing the odds for a 25bp hike in the next Federal Reserve meeting, instead of a 50bp hike.

Financial markets remained mixed yesterday. US Treasury yields fell as data releases pointed to a higher risk of stagflation. The May's ADP survey showed job creation was much lower than expected; while May's ISM services survey showed the sector contracted slightly and prices paid by businesses rose. Attention will now turn to Friday's non-farm payrolls report.

A strong US jobs report for January, with the unemployment rate falling 0.1 p.p. to 4.0% (the lowest since May) and wage growth accelerating to 4.1% yoy from 3.9% in December, reaffirmed expectations of a cautious Fed this year. Expectations for the next interest rate cut were delayed to July/September, and the probability of a second rate cut fell below 50%.

During yesterday's session, global markets adopted a stance of cautious optimism, navigating a landscape shaped by mixed economic data and ongoing geopolitical developments. Presidents Trump and Xi reportedly made headway in trade discussions during a phone call, particularly regarding tariffs and a potential accord on critical minerals and rare earths.

Markets were mixed in yesterday's session. Global stock markets advanced and U.S. sovereign yields nudged down as the U.S. CPI report did not depress investor expectations about Fed cuts. In Europe, the euro strengthened on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's meeting, German sovereign yields nudged up but peripheral spreads ticked down.

In the last session of the week, financial markets were very volatile after the upside surprise in the US labor market report for January. Non-farm payrolls rose by 517k, well above consensus expectations (+188k) and the upwardly revised monthly average in 2022 (401k). The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4%, a level not seen since 1969.

In the beginning of the week, investors continued to digest the US employment figures report released on Friday, which suggested that the tightness in the labor market is far from moderating at the pace the Fed would like to see.