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La respuesta de los salarios al aumento de la inflación
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https://www.caixabankresearch.com/es/informe-mensual/467/mayo-2022/resposta-dels-salaris-laugment-inflacio
La economía española continúa avanzando a un ritmo dinámico, encadenando un crecimiento relativamente elevado, tanto en perspectiva histórica como en comparación con la mayoría de las economías desarrolladas. En el plano internacional, la economía se muestra resiliente mientras se terminan de manifestar los efectos de dos grandes fuerzas contrapuestas: la geopolítica y la inteligencia artificial. El optimismo por la IA en la bolsa estadounidense y su comparación con la burbuja puntocom es uno de los temas que se analiza este mes, así como las razones por las que la vivienda es una de las principales preocupaciones de la ciudadanía europea. En España, también se abordan las necesidades de financiación del Tesoro o la relación entre el tamaño empresarial y la permanencia laboral con los ingresos salariales a partir de datos internos anonimizados.
Las elecciones al Parlamento Europeo de junio se han celebrado en un momento clave para el proceso de construcción europea, teniendo en cuenta los desafíos económicos, políticos y sociales que deberá afrontar nuestro continente en los próximos años. Muchos de estos retos se analizan en el Dossier de este Informe Mensual, desde la pérdida de competitividad en un mundo sometido a una reconfiguración de las cadenas de valor y de las relaciones entre bloques económicos, la redinamización de la productividad y el desarrollo tecnológico, hasta la necesidad de impulsar el Mercado Único de Capitales.
Investors traded with cautious optimism at the last session of the week, taking on board a new round of hawkish comments from Fed officials, weak survey data (e. g. the monthly fall in the IFO business climate in March) and the EU-US plan to cut reliance on Russian natural gas. The Ukraine-Russia war has now extended for over 1 month.
Investors' sentiment improved at the end of the week amid comments from Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell signaling that 75 basis points increases are, for now, off the table.
Investors traded with a cautious mood in yesterday’s session amid mixed economic data in the US and a delicate geopolitical situation. Nevertheless, US and NATO comments are for now ruling out the possibility that the missiles hitting Poland had a Russian origin.
Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric before the US Senate pushed upwards the financial market expectations for interest rates path ahead. In particular, investors now attach a higher probability to a 50bp hike than to a 25bp move at March’s meeting.
El dólar cambia de ritmo: tras depreciarse un 13% frente al euro en el primer semestre, frenó su caída en verano y ha recuperado algo de terreno desde septiembre. En próximos trimestres, las previsiones de crecimiento e inflación apuntan a un dólar algo más débil, aunque persisten factores que podrían sostenerlo: la resiliencia económica de EE. UU., unos tipos reales más altos en EE. UU. (tras moderarse las expectativas de inflación) y una importante recuperación de su papel como activo refugio.
In the last session of the week, investors traded with an optimistic mood amid steady economic indicators and as the US debt ceiling deal seemed more likely. In fact, on Saturday President Joe Biden and House speaker McCarthy reached a deal to raise the ceiling that will now have to pass Congress.
The Fed delivered a hawkish pause yesterday, leaving interest rates unchanged but acknowledging a strong US economy. The dot-plot projects a tighter policy through 2024 and 2025, consistent with rates higher for longer. US stock indices fell and US Treasury yields rose on the news, with the yield curve flattening, while the USD appreciated.
In Friday’s session, markets traded again with strong risk appetite as investors continued to price in the end of the central banks’ tightening cycle. US employment data showed signs of a cooling labor market, further fueling investors’ expectations of no further rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in a rate cut in June by the Fed and in April by the ECB.
Financial markets rallied globally following lower-than-expected US consumer prices. October CPI was unchanged m/m from September (vs. 0.1% expected) and rose 3.2% y/y (vs. 3.3% expected), down from September’s 3.7%. The market now expects the Fed to cut rates in May, ahead of June as was priced before the release of inflation data.
Markets took a pause after last week’s rally which brought the main stock indices to post their best monthly advance in years, and sovereign bond yields their largest monthly cuts in two years. Investors have now turned cautious ahead of this week’s US employment data while still pricing in the likelihood of interest rate cuts as soon as March 2024.
Stronger-than-expected March retail sales in the US casted further doubts on the Federal Reserve’s motives to cut interest rates as soon as this summer. Markets now price a mere 20% probability of a cut in June, and 50% for July.
Presentamos el Observatorio Sectorial de CaixaBank Research, el primer informe 360º sobre la situación y las perspectivas de los sectores de actividad en España. Su objetivo es profundizar en las dinámicas subyacentes de la evolución macroeconómica, ofreciendo una visión transversal del comportamiento de los sectores de actividad a lo largo del tiempo.
In yesterday’s session, investors focused their attention to the release of the last FOMC meeting minutes, which reinforced previous communication that Fed members still expect inflation to return to 2% over the medium term, while acknowledging that it will take longer than previously anticipated.
Investors continued to adjust their expectations for future interest rate cuts following strong PMIs, higher-than-expected wage growth in the euro area, and some hawkish remarks from central bank officials. Markets are now pricing in just two cuts from the ECB this year and one cut from the Fed, down from three and two, respectively, last week.
Investors' risk appetite increased on Wednesday as the ADP jobs report for June surprised to the downside and the ISM services report came in below expectations at 48.8. Separately, the release of the latest FOMC minutes showed that Fed officials acknowledged a slight slowdown in the economy as well as easing price pressures.
La vigorosa evolución del sector inmobiliario español en la primera mitad del año nos ha llevado a revisar al alza las previsiones para 2024 y 2025. Aun así, el desajuste entre oferta y demanda condicionarán al sector, que además deberá afrontar retos importantes como el cambio climático o los problemas de acceso a la vivienda de la población joven y la más vulnerable.
The continued repricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later this week was the main driver of financial markets during yesterday's session. The probability of a 50bp rate cut in the upcoming meeting rose to 70% from 50% last week, and the total amount of cuts in 2024 is now expected to be 120 bp, up from 100 bp.