European stock markets continued with the positive mood of the last session and gains were moderate and broad-based across the different European countries.
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U.S. stock markets rebounded while in Europe the tone was mixed. In sovereign bond markets, 10-year yields nudged down in the U.S. and edged up in the Euro Area.
In yesterday's session, economic data releases continued to center the stage. In the US, Q2 GDP figures were revised downwards from 2.4% q/q SAAR to 2.1%, while, in the euro area, country members' inflation figures failed to prove a decisive trend towards the 2%. Euro area aggregate data will be released today.
In the first trading session of the year, stock markets rose in the U.S. and they were mixed in Europe, declining in core countries and advancing in the Euro Area periphery.
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Claves del entorno económico internacional y en España
Stock markets advanced in the U.S. and experienced a generalized decline in Europe, while sovereign yields picked up both in the U.S. and the Euro Area.
Stock markets slid both in the U.S. and the Euro Area while treasury and bund yields were little changed and Euro Area periphery sovereign spreads declined.
Investors kicked off a busy week of macro data releases and central bank decisions with a cautious approach, taking on board signs of lingering inflationary pressures across Europe as well as disappointing GDP figures in Germany (-0.2% q/q after +0.5% in Q3, ahead of the release of the eurozone aggregate this morning).
In yesterday's session, weak PMI data for August, which signalled a slowdown in economic growth across the Atlantic, but most acutely in Europe, caused sovereign bond yields to fall across the board (around 13bps. for the long-term references). In the eurozone, PMI data for the services sector fell below the 50 threshold for the first time in 2023.
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Perspectivas 2022
In yesterday’s session, investors continued to trade with caution amid intensifying political negotiations in the US to raise the debt ceiling and mixed economic data releases. In Europe, the May’s ZEW survey fell in the euro area and Germany, showing that investors’ sentiment remains gloomy.
European equities performed well on Thursday after the Federal Reserve raised its growth forecast for the US, and the Eurostoxx50 rose 0.5%. Banks and automakers led the gains, as they are favored by rising market interest rates.
Clàudia Canals resume nuestras previsiones para las principales economías avanzadas y emergentes, eurozona y España, y explica en detalle las causas profundas del rebote de la inflación, uno de los riesgos que persisten en la economía mundial desde el mes pasado, junto con la disrupción de las cadenas globales de aprovisionamiento.
Enric Fernández, nuestro Economista Jefe, nos acompaña en este episodio especial para explicarnos en primera persona cuáles serán las tendencias que marcarán la economía mundial y española en 2024. Pese a presentarse lleno de desafíos, 2024 será "un año que irá de menos a más" y hay señales positivas para la economía española: será la economía de la zona euro con más crecimiento, lo que servirá para seguir creando empleo, y la moderación de la inflación debería permitir encara una recuperación gradual del poder adquisitivo de las familias.
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In yesterday’s session, which was closed in the US due to Thanksgiving holiday, investors traded cautiously amid signs of weak economic growth in the euro area in Q4. Although the Composite euro area flash PMI rose modestly from 46.5 points to 47.1, it remained in contractionary territory.
In the first session of the week, investors traded with a cautious mood amid hawkish rhetoric from regional Federal Reserve presidents and an upbeat revision of the euro area forecasts done by the European Commission.
Clàudia Canals aborda las perspectivas de la economía internacional en 2021 en este webinario organizado por CaixaBank Talks el 16 de diciembre.
As expected, the European Central Bank announced its plan to halve its monthly bond purchases to 30 billion euros starting in January.
En la mesa de expertos “Perspectivas económicas 2024: desafíos en clave económica”, organizada por El Periódico de España y El Periódico, con Judit Montoriol, lead economist de CaixaBank Research, María Jesús Fernández, economista sénior en el área de Coyuntura Económica de Funcas; Juan Pablo Riesgo, de EY Insights y People Advisory Services; Luciana Taft, consultora del área de Economía y Mercados de Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI), y Judith Arnal, investigadora senior del Center for European Policy Studies y del Real Instituto Elcano debaten los retos a los que se enfrenta la economía española en 2024.
Retrocesos moderados en las bolsas europeas y las yields soberanas de la eurozona en una jornada festiva en EE. UU.