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Rising concerns over intensifying competition in the AI sector triggered a sharp sell-off in technology stocks, weighing on broader market sentiment. Euro area equity indices mostly closed modestly lower, while US equities saw larger declines. On both sides of the Atlantic, cyclical sectors, including industrials and energy, outperformed on a relative basis.

Euro area sovereign yields edged lower, while the EURUSD cross held steady near 1.18, after the region's January inflation cooled, with headline inflation falling to 1.7% from 2.0% on lower energy prices and core easing to 2.2% as services inflation moderated. Attention now turns to today’s ECB policy meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.

The ECB kept rates on hold at 2%, as expected, with Christine Lagarde noting that both rates and inflation remain in a “good place”. She also played down concerns around euro strength and risks linked to Chinese trade, signalling limited scope for policy easing below the 2% level.The BoE kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, albeit with a surprisingly dovish tone.

Geopolitics were in investors’ focus yesterday, after Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran and the US had reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of a potential nuclear agreement. Commodity prices declined on the news, with Brent crude edging lower toward $67.5/barrel, European natural gas falling below €30/MWh, and gold also retreating.

Market sentiment turned positive following the release of robust data confirming the resilience of the US economy and continued inflation containment in the euro area. Equity markets posted broad-based gains, led by cyclical sectors.

Caution prevailed in yesterday’s session amid the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Equity markets paused their recovery, while sovereign yield curves saw no material moves. The US dollar strengthened to a four‑month high against the euro.

Elevated volatility persisted as the Middle East conflict intensified, heightening concerns over sustained disruptions to energy supplies. Brent crude advanced to USD 85/barrel and TTF natural gas rose above EUR 55/MWh (briefly nearing EUR 60 intra-session), up roughly 25% and 100%, respectively, since mid-February. Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off, with Asian and European markets underperforming US indices.

Heightened geopolitical tensions kept markets volatile as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth day. Energy prices moved higher, with Brent crude rising to $85/barrel and TTF gas to €50/MWh. Equities extended their sell-off in the US and the euro area after their short rebound on Wednesday, while the dollar strengthened, pushing EUR/USD toward 1.16.

Friday’s session began on a risk-on footing, with European equities moving higher in early hours. Sentiment later turned more cautious following remarks from Qatar’s energy minister suggesting that oil market normalization could take weeks to months after hostilities end. Brent crude spiked over $90/barrel and is trading above $100 as of this morning.

Concerns over the economic growth impact of the Middle East conflict gained prominence, prompting a rotation into sovereign bonds after recent selling pressure driven by inflation fears. Equity markets were mixed globally, with sharp losses in Asia, modest gains in the euro area, and slight declines in the US.

Investors ended the week on a cautious note as they assessed the prospects for renewed US–Iran talks over the weekend. Energy prices were volatile, with Brent crude finally settling around $105/bbl and European TTF gas near €45/MWh.

Risk sentiment improved late in the week as crude prices eased. European markets were closed on Friday for the May Day holiday, while US and OTC markets remained open. Here, risk sentiment was supported by lower crude prices for the second day in a row, following an Iranian proposal regarding negotiations with the US.

Financial markets posted a mixed performance on Thursday, with moves closely tied to shifting headlines on US‑Iran ceasefire talks. While European markets closed under a cautious tone, US assets benefited from late‑session reports pointing to a draft agreement between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire.

Friday's session was driven by optimism, especially in the euro area, where Thursday evening geopolitical headlines (Trump cancelled the strikes that were planned on Iran and declared being close to a peace agreement) were put in price. This deal has been reached during the weekend, it will be signed on Friday and will imply the reopening of Strait of Hormuz.

Risk sentiment improved on Thursday, before late-session Hormuz tensions soured it. In commodities, crude oil prices reversed course and ended the day rising after of a missile strike on a container vessel in Hormuz, while natural gas prices of European benchmarks fell. Gold rose on safe-haven demand.

With no major developments in the peace talks from the Middle East, Friday's session was driven by an increase in risk sentiment, with investors rotating from fixed income to the stock market in the euro area and falling volatility. In the US, markets were closed due to a bank holiday.

Yesterday's session was marked by news that the US and Iran were resuming the strikes as the interim deal between the two countries to end the war was over. Energy prices peaked near European closing, with Brent crude reaching USD 80/barrel to further ease and close the session at USD 78. TTF closed the session up 5% at EUR 49/MWh.

Market sentiment remained downbeat due to persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued weakness in AI-related market segments. In commodities, energy prices lacked clear direction, with Brent edging lower and TTF prices rising. The dollar strengthened modestly against the euro, on expectations of a resilient U.S. economy.

Brent oil and TTF gas whipsawed and stock markets were mixed as hostilities in the Middle East continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Tech equities steadied after last week's rout, but both the S&P 500 and the Eurostoxx closed moderately lower.

Investor sentiment was mixed in yesterday's session. Energy prices crept up as the U.S. and Iran continued to exchange fire and Brent oil briefly topped $95. Stocks rose across Europe but the U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower amid a mixed performance of tech stocks and ahead of key Q2 earnings releases.