The hawkish tone of the ECB at its yesterday's meeting centered the stage in financial markets. The ECB raised official interest rates by 50bp, as expected, but noted that ongoing increases at a "steady pace" will be necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target and announced that the QT will start in March by not reinvesting €15bn/month.
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Europa es el principal emisor turístico del mundo y la cuenca del Mediterráneo, su principal receptor. Esto beneficia doblemente a España, cuyo sector turístico es uno de los más consolidados de la región. Sin embargo, otros mercados están desarrollando con fuerza sus respectivas industrias turísticas y la vuelta a escena de Egipto, Túnez y Turquía ha modificado el entorno competitivo de los últimos años.
La oferta de vivienda nueva sigue creciendo con vigor, especialmente en las zonas con mayor demanda. De cara a los próximos trimestres, la senda expansiva del sector tendrá continuidad.
In the first session of the week, investors traded with a risk-off mood amid the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In the macroeconomic front there were no relevant data releases.
Financial markets closed the week with a sell-off session amid concerns of a new coronavirus variant identified in South Africa. The main concerns are the speed at which this variant can spread and whether it will be immune to the vaccines. Volatility rose and demand for safe assets increased.
Investors traded with a positive tone in yesterday's session as March PMI data surprised on the upside in most regions, particularly in the euro area (Composite Index 52.5 vs 48.8 in February). The advance was more robust in the manufacturing sector, although the services index also increased.
In yesterday's session, stock volatility declined and investors traded with cautious optimism. Federal Reserve officials reiterated their intention to keep monetary policy unchanged until the economic recovery has been fully completed. Then, the exit of the stimulus would be very gradual and with great transparency.
In yesterday’s session, investors traded cautiously focusing their attention on the corporate earnings season and being attentive to the monetary policy path ahead and to the geopolitical risks. In this context, yields on sovereign bonds surged in advanced economies, with the 10-treasury getting closer to 5%.
Markets were mixed in the first session of the week. Stocks advanced in Asia and Europe but retreated in the U.S, where financials weighed on the main benchmarks as investors assessed potential losses from their exposure to Archegos Capital Management, a hedge fund that had failed to meet margin calls.
Concerns over the evolution of the pandemic and, especially, the Delta variant worsened investors' sentiment in the last session of June. In addition, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said that the access to vaccines is unequal across countries and is causing a "diverging recovery".
Yesterday's session was dominated by the news that the Trump administration will impose harsh sanctions on two large oil companies in Russia, in an attempt to pressure Moscow into negotiations over the war in Ukraine. As a consequence, Brent prices rose +5% to $66/barrel and sovereign yields advanced globally, especially on the long side of the curve.
In the last session of the week, investors traded with a risk-off mood amid fears of a escalating conflict in the Middle East. The VIX index, despite remaining at historically moderate levels, reached its highest level since March and stock indices declined across the globe.
The week ended with markets trading without a clear direction as investors continued to monitor central bank officials' speeches to adjust their expectations of the timing of the first interest rate cuts, and as they awaited key economic data to be released this week.
In yesterday’s session, investors once more weighed the growing tensions in the Middle East and the future path of interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would proceed carefully with rates, highlighting that the rise in yields in bond markets is helping to tighten financial conditions.
Investors traded cautiously during yesterday's session ahead of the FOMC meeting today, in which the Fed is expected to lower interest rates by 25bp (see our take here). US Treasury yields edged down, euro area sovereign yields were flat, and stocks fell on both sides of the Atlantic. The euro rose against the dollar to its highest in 4 years, close to 1.187.
Financial markets ended the day with negative results, following the release of disappointing survey sentiment data in both the US (the services ISM fell to 60.1 in June from 64.0 in May) and in Germany (the ZEW sentiment indicator dropped from 79.8 to 63.3). In addition, industrial orders in Germany plummeted in May (-4% m/m).
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session. Global stock markets advanced and U.S. sovereign yields nudged down as the U.S. CPI report did not depress investor expectations about Fed cuts. In Europe, the euro strengthened on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's meeting, German sovereign yields nudged up but peripheral spreads ticked down.
Markets ended the week with a mixed session. Optimism over trade deals continued to support U.S. equity markets, sending the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to new record highs, while euro area stocks ended mostly lower as investors traded cautiously awaiting news of a trade deal. Sovereign yields were little changed after the ECB meeting and Trump's visit to the Fed.
Friday´s session was clouded by the risk that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could escalate further causing a sustained rise in oil prices. On the economic side, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell from 68 to 63 from last month and China exports fell, although by less than expected by the consensus.
The week ended with investors in a risk off mode in the financial markets. In the eurozone, PMI data for France and Germany came in below expectations and below last month's levels, while in the US the index rose slightly from May.