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Investors’ morale improved again on the back of solid economic data reports. June PMI and ISM data in the euro area and in the US reflected that economic growth is gaining momentum and most manufacturing indices remained above the 60 points (EZ at 63.4, US ISM at 60.6, Spain’s at 60.4, +1 pp from the previous month).

Yesterday's announcement of a temporary truce in the trade war between the US and China lifted investors' mood, particularly in US assets. Both countries agreed that for the next 90 days the US will reduce the tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports last month from 145% to 30%, and that Chinese tariffs on US imports will fall from 125% to 10%.

Concerns over the evolution of the pandemic and, especially, the Delta variant worsened investors' sentiment in the last session of June. In addition, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said that the access to vaccines is unequal across countries and is causing a "diverging recovery".

Financial markets started the week with a risk-off session, fueled by the escalation in tensions involving Ukraine. The rising geopolitical risk is adding to investors’ concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures and the prospect of a more aggressive withdrawal of monetary policy stimuli by major central banks.

Investors traded cautiously as they positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week. US weekly unemployment benefit claims fell to a three-year low, casting some doubts over the Fed's willingess to lower rates. In this context, US treasury yields rose, equities were mostly flat, and the dollar edged higher against most peers.

Pessimism about a breakthrough in trade tensions drove global stocks down in the first session of the week. In the U.S., losses were exacerbated by weakness in the technology sector and the major indices were down by more than 1.5%.

Sentiment recovered in financial markets following news that, over the weekend, President Trump exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2nd (the 10% baseline tariff and additional tariffs to a list of other countries).

Implied volatility declined and stock markets rose across the board in the first session of the week as investors digested the truce agreed by Presidents Trump and Xi in the G20's meeting.

The week finished off with a session without any significant movements as inflation figures released on Friday largely aligned with expectations. The US PCE deflator for April came in at 2.7% yoy, as expected. Euro area inflation rose to 2.6% yoy in May, just above the 2.5% expected, although the monthly variation recorded the expected 0.3%.

Investor's remained cautious yesterday as they await for more clues on the upcoming macroeconomic and political outlook. In the U.S., results from technological companies surprised to the upside, while the industrial sector suffered from concerns about economic growth.

In yesterday's volatile session, investors remained concerned about the implications the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can have on economic activity and inflation. Nevertheless, rumors that the EU is discussing a plan to increase the joint issuance of bonds benefited risk perception in Europe.

With U.S. markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday, European stocks advanced moderately at the start of the week as investors digested the results of the weekend's European Parliament election.

In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid ongoing talks between Russian and Ukrainian authorities, although during the weekend Russia intensified aerial attacks on the western part of Ukraine. This week talks are expected to continue between both countries and officials from China and the US will also hold a meeting.

Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's FOMC decision (a 25bp interest rate cut is widely discounted) and the BoE on Thursday (expected to hold interest rates at 4.75%). On the macro data front, US retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in November, and in Germany, the IFO expectations index surprised to the downside as confidence in the country continued to weaken.

Comments by central bankers centered the stage at the start of the week in a session with no relevant economic data releases. In the euro area Christine Lagarde reiterated that a rate hike in 2022 is "very unlikely" even if the current inflation spike might be higher and longer than initially expected.

Financial markets' tone improved for the second day in a row on the back of previous Fed comments saying that it would support the economy in case the scenario worsens, mixed economic data releases and brighter investor expectations on trade tensions between Mexico and the U.S.

Political tensions in France took center stage during yesterday's session after far-right and far-left parties submitted no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Barnier, risking the collapse of the current government. French government yields rose, its risk premium widened further, and the euro sold-off to 1.05 against the dollar.

Investor sentiment diverged on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. In the Eurozone, government bond yields were mixed, with French spreads widening after the European Commission endorsed the French draft budget for 2025, which aims to reduce public deficit from 6.1% of GDP to 5%. The budget has yet to be approved in parliament amid a political stalemate.

In the last session of the week, stock indices rose in the US and core euro area following positive corporate results and the better-than-expected GDP growth figures in the US.