In yesterday's session, the pause in a vaccine trial after a patient fell ill weighed on sentiment. Stock indices declined across the globe (in the US, Q3 earnings season started disappointing investors) and yields on sovereign bonds edged slightly down. In FX markets, the US dollar strengthened against advanced and emerging economies' currencies.
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In the last session of the week, financial markets' sentiment was dominated by optimism as investors read positively the latest U.S. labour market data and the comments of Fed President, Jerome Powell, suggesting a more flexible pace of the upcoming interest rate hikes.
Implied volatility declined and stock markets rose across the board in the first session of the week as investors digested the truce agreed by Presidents Trump and Xi in the G20's meeting.
Pessimism about a breakthrough in trade tensions drove global stocks down in the first session of the week. In the U.S., losses were exacerbated by weakness in the technology sector and the major indices were down by more than 1.5%.
In a quiet session due to the President's Day holiday in the US, traders continued to weigh incoming economic data (eg consumer confidence in the eurozone rose to -19 from -20.7) with the hawkish tone from central bank officials. In this context, yields on sovereign bonds ticked up in the euro area, nearing year-to-date highs.
Markets ended the week on a negative mood, following the release of weaker than expected employment data in the US (non-farm payrolls rose by 235k in August after 1,053k in July). The disappointing figures could well postpone a decision by the Fed to taper its asset purchases for later this year.
Investors continued to err on the side of caution during the last session of the week, with sentiment impaired by data releases pointing to lingering inflationary pressures and the likely need for further monetary policy tightening.
Markets traded cautiously yesterday, ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy rate decision today. US Treasury yields were almost flat, as markets expect Fed's policy rate to stay at its current level. On the other side of the Atlantic, euro area sovereign yields were flat, as the German Bundestag approved a fiscal package to boost defence spending, as expected.
Risk appetite extended across markets during the last session of the week, boosted by signs that inflation in the US may have peaked while consumer spending remained strong at the start of Q2, according to the April’s PCE report.
Friday's session was mixed as investors continued to weigh tariff uncertainty, monetary policy decisions and the Fed's updated macro forecasts. Sovereign bond yields edged lower on both sides of the Atlantic, while stock markets registered losses in the euro area and Asia, and barely advanced in the US. The dollar was mostly flat.
The hawkish tone set by central bank officials continued to center the stage in financial markets at the start of the week. In particular, ECB chief economist Phillip Lane signaled that further interest rate hikes beyond next week's meeting will be appropriate to ease inflationary pressures.
Investors continued to trade with caution, taking position ahead of the publication today of the crucial US payrolls report for February. Data released on Thursday showed an unexpected increase in new jobless claims last week (to 211,000), which contrasted with signals from other surveys pointing to further tightening in the labour market.
On Friday, investors traded cautiously as they continued to assess the economic outlook for the main advanced economies. Stock indices rose modestly in the euro area while, in a volatile session, the S&P 500 closed barely flat. Emerging economies’ indices registered solid advances.
Friday's session was volatile, after Iran postponed further peace negotiations with the US until Israel stopped striking Lebanon. The ceasefire between the countries was reached later in the session, which triggered a positive reaction that was almost immediately reversed. US markets were closed due to Juneteenth holiday.
A larger-than-expected decline in US inflation in May, from 4.9% yoy to 4.0%, increased the odds investors attach to a pause in the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes at today’s meeting. Nevertheless, core inflation declined by less than expected, from 5.5% yoy to 5.3%, pushing the Fed to, at the very least, maintain a hawkish tone.
Financial markets had a mixed start to the week as investors tried to reconcile seemingly contradictory signals. In the eurozone, government bond yields fell after September's PMI showed a weak manufacturing sector weighing heavily on the core economies. A sharp, unexpected deterioration in the French services PMI also pushed up the country's spread.
Softer-than-expected US inflation data drove a decline in Treasury yields, while equity markets showed a mixed performance across the Atlantic. US June PPI came in below expectations, following the previous day’s soft CPI, while Fed officials struck a hawkish tone but signalled patience, prompting a repricing of Fed rate expectations, with the probability of an additional hike declining to around 40%. US Treasury yields declined, with a flattening of the curve led by the short end.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment deteriorated amid the expectation of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and the ECB and disappointing corporate results. Concerns about the Covid-19 situation in China added to the somber sentiment.
The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that the decision to hold interest rates steady in June was not unanimous, and that most officials expected further rate hikes would be necessary, as the dot plot had shown. Also yesterday, US factory orders data for May came in below expectations, but still showed growth.
Investors started the week trading with a cautious mood, still digesting the mixed US employment report released on Friday and awaiting tomorrow's key CPI inflation data. Also, comments from San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly pointed to further interest rate increases even if signaling the end of the hiking cycle is nearing.