Volatility and risk aversion continued to set the tone during the last session of the week, as investors were still digesting the hawkish rhetoric during the last monetary policy meetings of 2022 at major central banks.
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Risk aversion returned to the fore on Tuesday after CPI inflation surprised to the upside in the US, fueling a new upward revision in investors’ expectations about the pace of monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Monday's stock market rally went into reverse in yesterday's session, as investors weighed the prospects for the coronavirus pandemic and the possibility of further fiscal stimulus in the U.S.
In the last session of the week, investors’ concerns about liquidity shortage in the banking system continued to dominate the scenario and risk-aversion set the tone in financial markets.
On Monday, volatility continued to dominate financial markets. While the session started with losses in stock indices and sharp declines in sovereign yields, sentiment improved throughout the day following the communication by some ECB officials. Equities closed higher and yields on sovereign bonds rose in the US and were mixed in the euro area.
European stocks edged down on Friday, while U.S. stocks notched gains despite posting a slight loss on the week as investors faced the reality of a second coronavirus wave in Europe and the uncertainty around further stimulus in the U.S.
In yesterday’s session, investors traded cautiously as they awaited key economic data later this week (US CPI inflation) and the ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday. The main economic event yesterday was the downward revision of the European Commission’s summer GDP forecasts.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a positive tone as the Federal Reserve kept its monetary policy unchanged and vote counting continued in the US. The Democrat candidate, Joe Biden, has taken the lead and potentially winning one more state would be sufficient for him to become the US President.
In yesterday's session, investors’ sentiment worsened in the euro area, amid inflationary concerns, while in the U.S. investors focused their attention on a potential breakthrough in negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to extend the debt ceiling and on the better than expected ADP employment report.
Investors ended the week trading with a pessimistic tone amid concerns on the economic outlook and tightening monetary policy. On a positive note, the US consumers' inflation expectations survey (University of Michigan) showed the lowest rate since last September, easing concerns that the Fed could hike rates this week by 100bp.
European sovereign yields edged lower in yesterday's trading session following a speech by ECB chief Christine Lagarde in which she signalled further monetary easing. In her speech, Lagarde emphasised the importance of the duration, and not only the size, of monetary accomodation, and identified PEPP and TLTROs as the main crisis tools.
In yesterday’s session, investors traded cautiously focusing their attention on the corporate earnings season and being attentive to the monetary policy path ahead and to the geopolitical risks. In this context, yields on sovereign bonds surged in advanced economies, with the 10-treasury getting closer to 5%.
Markets ended last week on a high note on Friday as it became apparent that the US elections were nearing a result. The S&P 500 gained 7.3% over the week and US sovereign yields rose sharply. The election result was finally called on Saturday, in favor of Joe Biden, but Donald Trump announced that he would contest the results.
Investors started the week trading with more appetite for risk, as concerns about the banking sector receded following the announcement that SVB is to be acquired by another institution (First Citizens Bank & Trust) and news reporting additional support from the US authorities for regional banks.
Precaution continued to set the tone during the first session of the week, with investor sentiment negatively affected by the ongoing deterioration of COVID infections across China and the likely imposition of more restrictions.
In the first session of the week, investors' sentiment improved as sovereign interest rates declined in both sides of the Atlantic and amid better-than-expected corporate earnings releases in the US. Equity indices rose substantially across the board.
Friday's session was volatile, after Iran postponed further peace negotiations with the US until Israel stopped striking Lebanon. The ceasefire between the countries was reached later in the session, which triggered a positive reaction that was almost immediately reversed. US markets were closed due to Juneteenth holiday.
Negotiations to raise the US debt ceiling progressed over the course of Thursday, with both the Government and the opposition party suggesting talks were in a better place, though not finalised yet. Should a deal be reached soon, Parliament would have to approve it before June 1, the deadline stated by Treasury Secretary to run out of cash.
A session with mixed results across markets on Tuesday, as investors returned from the Easter holiday and took position ahead of the March inflation report in the US today. The Fed also releases the account of its March meeting.
Tensions around the US debt ceiling negotiations continued weighting on investors’ sentiment. Even though the opposition leader, McCarthy, signaled optimism about a deal after the latest round of talks, rating agency Fitch Ratings warned the nation’s AAA rating may be downgraded due to the political standoff.