In yesterday's session sovereign bonds took center stage once again. Yields extended their declines both in the euro area and in the US, where higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims pointed to a cooling labor market and gave investors further reasons to believe the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates.
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In yesterday’s session, the US CPI data for December centered the stage and confirmed the downward trend kicked off last summer. In particular, the headline index fell by 0.1% m/m and the core measure rose by 0.3%. On year-on-year terms, inflation eased to 6.5% (headline) and 5.7% (core), both in line with consensus expectations.
Volatility declined and markets favored risk assets in a light economic calendar day. Stocks rose across advanced and emerging economies as investors focused on the prospects of a new fiscal package in the U.S. and the release of the accounts of the ECB's September meeting.
In yesterday's session, investors continued to trade with a risk-on mood, taking position ahead of potential surprises in the crucial CPI inflation report in the US due to be released today. The headline index is expected to decline m/m, increasing the odds for a 25bp hike in the next Federal Reserve meeting, instead of a 50bp hike.
Investors traded in a subdued mood on Tuesday, as they awaited today’s US CPI report and digested the latest dovish comments from several Fed officials on Monday: Bostic, who said that inflation could be brought back to target without further rate hikes; and Daly, who said the Fed was approaching «the last part» of its hiking cycle.
Investors started the week trading with a cautious approach. On the positive side, sentiment continued to be supported by expectations that the Chinese government could relax some of its COVID zero policy. On the opposite direction, data showed further weakness in China’s economic recovery.
Investors continued trading in a risk-on mood yesterday as the vaccination process continues, and, symbolically, the number of people vaccinated across the world reaches the number of COVID-19 cases.
Investors started the week with mixed sentiment in Europe and optimism in the U.S., driven, respectively, by weaker-than-expected economic data releases on one side and the perception that activity is recovering on the other.
In yesterday's session investors traded cautiously as they digested political developments. On the one hand, tensions between the US and China rose as the White House gave China 72 hours to close its consulate in Houston amid accusations of spying. China has said it intends to retaliate.
The accommodative monetary policy stance confirmed in yesterday's Federal Reserve's meeting and the better-than-expected December flash PMIs in the euro area kept optimism among investors. In particular, the manufacturing indices were expected to fall but managed to increase, and the services indices rose but remained below 50.
Yesterday's session was a volatile one, as news from progress in the negotiations around the conflict in the Middle East came in both directions, moving energy prices and the rest of asset prices. Brent prices closed up by more than 2%, at USD 112/barrel, while TTF prices ended the session flat at EUR 50/MWh.
Financial markets started the week with a mixed tone in a session with the US markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Investors traded cautiously as they weighed rising COVID number across the globe, Joe Biden's stimulus plan and Q4 GDP numbers in China. (+2.6 qoq, +6.5% yoy, leaving 2020’s annual growth at 2.3%).
Financial markets diverged across the Atlantic on Tuesday. In the US, sentiment was supported by optimism around US‑Iran peace talks, despite US missile strikes in southern Iran. In the eurozone, by contrast, the rebound in European benchmark energy prices—Brent crude and TTF natural gas—after a few sessions of relief weighed on investor sentiment.
Investor sentiment improved in the last session of the week despite the release of April's U.S. employment report, which showed the largest job's loss since the Great Depression.
A larger-than-expected decline in US inflation in May, from 4.9% yoy to 4.0%, increased the odds investors attach to a pause in the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes at today’s meeting. Nevertheless, core inflation declined by less than expected, from 5.5% yoy to 5.3%, pushing the Fed to, at the very least, maintain a hawkish tone.
Investors shifted gears across asset classes on Friday, as the US employment report showed robust job growth in May for a third month in a row. The resilient labour market and inflation risks led markets to fully price in a Fed rate hike by year‑end. US Treasury yields rose accordingly, especially at the short end, further flattening the curve.
Softer-than-expected US inflation data drove a decline in Treasury yields, while equity markets showed a mixed performance across the Atlantic. US June PPI came in below expectations, following the previous day’s soft CPI, while Fed officials struck a hawkish tone but signalled patience, prompting a repricing of Fed rate expectations, with the probability of an additional hike declining to around 40%. US Treasury yields declined, with a flattening of the curve led by the short end.
Investors traded cautiously in the last session of the week amid rising concerns between the Chinese-US relations and mounting uncertainty on the economic recovery after the COVID-19.
In yesterday’s session, US debt ceiling negotiations continued to center the stage in financial markets as President Joe Biden and Republican speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy keep pushing for a deal to avoid a default on sovereign bonds. Biden specified that negotiations are on the fiscal budget, not on whether the US will pay or not its debt.
Investors continued to err on the side of caution during the last session of the week, with sentiment impaired by data releases pointing to lingering inflationary pressures and the likely need for further monetary policy tightening.