Investors extended their risk apetite amid positive global manufacturing PMI releases. In August, factory activity remained strong in most economies, but several surveys continued to signal disrupted supply chains and labour shortages as the main risks. In the U.S., the input price index fell from 85.7 points towards 79.4.
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Financial markets were less volatile in the first session of the week as investors digested the latest Jerome Powell's comments on the upcoming official interest rate moves (more flexible and aware to risks).
In the last session of the week, stock markets rose worldwide and sovereign yields ticked up in the U.S. and declined in the Euro Area.
Trade tensions between China and the U.S., the extension of the U.S. government shutdown and positive surprises in the earnings season determined yesterday investor's mood.
In the first session of the week, investors traded with a cautious mood amid hawkish rhetoric from regional Federal Reserve presidents and an upbeat revision of the euro area forecasts done by the European Commission.
Financial markets extended the gains on Tuesday, with investors' sentiment boosted by dovish comments on inflation and monetary policy from some key Fed officials. As a result, stocks in the US fluctuated around record highs while the decline in US treasury yields stabilized. In Asia, equity indexes advanced further on Wednesday.
Investors traded cautiously amid heightened tariff uncertainty, fresh rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine, and mixed macro data. In the US, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell to its lowest level since 2021, while the German Ifo business climate index rose, as companies' expectations about the future improved.
In the last session of the week investors traded with a risk-off mood amid escalating tensions around Russia and Ukraine. During the weekend, the White House accepted a summit between Biden and Putin as long as Russia does not invade Ukraine, a move that could help deescalating tensions.
In yesterday’s session, investors continued to trade with caution amid intensifying political negotiations in the US to raise the debt ceiling and mixed economic data releases. In Europe, the May’s ZEW survey fell in the euro area and Germany, showing that investors’ sentiment remains gloomy.
In the last session of the week, investors traded in a cautious mood as they continued to digest the Fed's more dovish and patient tone.
Investors opened the week with a risk-on tone after US officials, including President Trump, signalled over the weekend that negotiations with Iran were approaching an agreement. Trading volumes remained subdued, however, as several major markets, including the US and the UK, were closed for a bank holiday.
Investors' sentiment continued to deteriorate amid escalating trade tensions and Russia's initial refusal to agree to a truce in Ukraine. Equity markets ended lower, particularly in the US, and Treasury yields fell as investors increased their demand for safe-haven US government debt. Oil prices declined as markets weighed the risk that the tariff war could dampen global energy demand.
In the last session of the week, investors' sentiment improved and their preference for riskier assets rose after the sharp sell-off sessions that preceded Friday.
Financial markets started the week with a risk-off session where investors' preference for safe assets rose as they assessed the impact of the sanctions imposed on Russia.
In yesterday's session, European government bond yields broadly fell after December inflation numbers for Germany and France came in lower than expected, lowering odds of future rate hikes from the ECB. Investors will be attentive to today's release of December CPI in the euro area, looking for more hints on the rate path in the short term.
Risk aversion continued to dominate in yesterday's session, with the key themes remaining the COVID situation in China and hawkish comments by central bank officials. In the euro area, both Christine Lagarde and Joachim Nagel said that inflation will remain elevated and might not have peaked yet, justifying a tighter monetary policy stance.
Yesterday, stock markets rallied around the world while 10-year sovereign yields remained stable in the U.S. and declined in the Euro Area (particularly so in the periphery countries).
In a session where the inflow of macroeconomic and sentiment data was abundant in the U.S. and in the euro area, investors read it, overall, in the downside.
Investors traded with cautious optimism at the last session of the week, still hopeful a resolution in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could be possible. In addition, a meeting by US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping over the crisis in Ukraine ended without big surprises.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment improved amid optimistic comments from Russian officials, which increased the odds of a diplomatic solution, and following the description of the outlook from Jerome Powell, who said the US economy is very strong and with an extremely tight labor market.