Investors traded cautiously amid political tensions in France, where lawmakers are set to vote today on no-confidence motions. Euro area sovereign bond yields edged lower, and France's risk premium narrowed to 85bp after reaching 88bp in the previous session. The region's main stock indices advanced slightly, and the euro held steady at 1.05 against the dollar.
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Euro area markets had a cautious session ahead of the no-confidence vote in France, approved late last night. Sovereign bond yields were mostly flat, and the region's main equity indices posted small gains. The euro was flat against its main peers, leaving its cross with the US dollar at 1.05.
Financial markets ended the week on a mixed note. In the US, November payrolls data showed that employment grew slightly more than expected (with October data revised upwards), but unemployment rose by 0.1% to 4.2% and wage growth accelerated slightly. Treasury yields fell and the probability of a -25bp cut by the Fed in December rose to 90%.
Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious note as they await the ECB's Governing Council meeting (on Thursday), widely expected to lower interest rates by 25bp, and US inflation figures for November (released on Wednesday), a key report for the Fed's decision next week.
In the first session of the week, investors traded cautiously in the absence of relevant economic data releases while continuing to digest last week's Fed and ECB monetary policy meetings. With the US markets closed due to a holiday, attention centered to messages from ECB officials.
In the last session of the week, investors traded with a positive mood amid robust employment data in the U.S. Non-farm payrolls rose by +559k in May (consensus expected +675k on average) and the unemployment rate dropped by 0.3 p. p. to 5.8%.
In the first session of the week, investors extended the positive tone seen during last Friday. In the euro area, economic data releases came in better than expected (EZ Sentix Investor Confidence rose in June to 28.0 from 21.0 and Spain's industrial production rose by 1.2% mom in April).
Stock markets were mixed in yesterday's session, with further gains in the U.S. and small declines in the Euro Area. In fixed-income markets, sovereign yields were stable ahead of the central bank policy meetings later this week.
In the last session of the week, investors weighed better-than-expected economic data releases in the US with a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve officials. In particular, Christopher Waller and Thomas Barkin highlighted that inflation remains too high and stubbornly persistent, which might prompt a 25bp rate hike at the July meeting.
Investors traded with cautious optimism at the last session of the week, still hopeful a resolution in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could be possible. In addition, a meeting by US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping over the crisis in Ukraine ended without big surprises.
Yesterday’s session was dominated by the ECB’s 25bp hike, which brought the deposit facility rate to 3.5%, and by a hawkish tone from President Lagarde. She strongly hinted at a further 25bps hike in July, stating that the bank still had some ground to cover and was not considering a pause.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment improved amid optimistic comments from Russian officials, which increased the odds of a diplomatic solution, and following the description of the outlook from Jerome Powell, who said the US economy is very strong and with an extremely tight labor market.
Mario Draghi met Italy's president Sergio Mattarella on Wednesday and agreed to try to form a government of national unity after the recent collapse of the government coalition. It is however uncertain whether Draghi will be able to put together a willing coalition of parties.
Driven mainly by the trade tensions of the U.S. with China and, more recently, Mexico, stock indices in advanced economies declined, the price of gold rose and the Japanese Yen appreciated, in a canonical example of a risk-off session.
On Friday, the Japanese yen strengthened sharply after the Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 0.75% and signaled a hawkish stance. Speculation around potential currency intervention intensified after New York Fed officials reportedly sought information on the yen’s exchange rate, and Prime Minister Takaichi warned of action against “abnormal” market moves.
Investors traded with a cautious mood in yesterday’s session amid mixed economic data in the US and a delicate geopolitical situation. Nevertheless, US and NATO comments are for now ruling out the possibility that the missiles hitting Poland had a Russian origin.
Markets showed limited reaction to the release of US December inflation data, which confirmed headline and core inflation unchanged at 2.7% and 2.6% yoy, respectively. US Treasury yields ended the session broadly flat, equities edged lower, and the US dollar was little changed against most major peers. Futures markets continue to price in the first Fed rate cut in June.
In the last session of the week, investors traded with an optimistic mood amid steady economic indicators and as the US debt ceiling deal seemed more likely. In fact, on Saturday President Joe Biden and House speaker McCarthy reached a deal to raise the ceiling that will now have to pass Congress.
Investors started the week on a slightly positive note, with US markets closed for the President's Day holiday. In the eurozone, government bond yields rose on the likelihood of increased public spending on defence. Peripheral spreads narrowed as German bonds came under some selling pressure ahead of Sunday's general election.
Yesterday's session was mixed across asset classes and regions. In the Eurozone, sovereign yields rose and peripheral spreads widened as countries grapple with the need for higher military spending. Separately, ECB's Schnabel argued the 2.75% rate is not undoubtedly restrictive, while ECB's Panetta argued that the consumer-led recovery is not materialising.