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The Fed decided to keep rates steady in its first meeting with Kevin Warsh as chair, opening the possibility of future rate hikes later this year. Investor mood soured on the hawkish bias, with US treasury yields rising significantly, especially in the short term, after retail sales numbers in May showed a stronger-than-expected economy.

As no relevant news came from the conflict in the Middle East, yesterday's session still had volatile energy markets but no major drivers. Brent crude prices closed nearly flat at USD 80/bbl, while TTF natural gas prices continued to ease, closing the session just above EUR 40/MWh. Volatility decreased after Wednesday's sharp increase following the Fed's meeting.

Investors opened the week with a risk-on tone after US officials, including President Trump, signalled over the weekend that negotiations with Iran were approaching an agreement. Trading volumes remained subdued, however, as several major markets, including the US and the UK, were closed for a bank holiday.

Yesterday's session had a rather quiet tone on mixed signals, as sources in Iran announced that differences between the counterparts in the Middle East conflict were beginning to shrink, although there were no advances on Iran's nuclear programme. Brent prices fell by more than 2%, while natural gas closed flat.

With no known progress on the peace negotiations in the Middle East, yesterday's session was driven by adjacent factors. Energy prices closed mixed as US Vice President JD Vance said neither side of the conflict wanted to take military action. Brent prices fell slightly to settle at USD 111/barrel while TTF prices rallied to close up 3%, at nearly EUR 52/MWh.

Risk appetite improved on Tuesday after US inflation surprised to the downside in June. The CPI print was driven by falling energy prioces but also softer core services, particularly shelter, overshadowing Warsh’s hawkish remarks in Congress, where he said he has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". Interest rate expectations for the Fed declined, with markets now pricing a second hike over the next 12 months with a 70% probability.

Market sentiment remained downbeat due to persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued weakness in AI-related market segments. In commodities, energy prices lacked clear direction, with Brent edging lower and TTF prices rising. The dollar strengthened modestly against the euro, on expectations of a resilient U.S. economy.

Markets ended the week on a cautious note, driven by a deterioration in investor sentiment towards the Middle East conflict and a selloff in tech stocks. Brent oil prices rose nearly 5% to close above $88 per barrel, and TTF gas surged towards €60 as the U.S. and Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf.

Risk sentiment improved late in the week as crude prices eased. European markets were closed on Friday for the May Day holiday, while US and OTC markets remained open. Here, risk sentiment was supported by lower crude prices for the second day in a row, following an Iranian proposal regarding negotiations with the US.

Investors ended the week on a cautious note as they assessed the prospects for renewed US–Iran talks over the weekend. Energy prices were volatile, with Brent crude finally settling around $105/bbl and European TTF gas near €45/MWh.

Yesterday's session was a quiet one, with investors assessing mixed signals of the progress toward a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East conflict, while US President Trump threatened of increasing the strikes would the Strait of Ormuz not reopen before noon today. Brent crude prices closed near $110/barrel after a choppy trading session.

Investors traded cautiously in Tuesday's session. Equities posted losses across the U.S. and Europe, and sovereign yields were volatile even as energy prices declined. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surged to levels not seen since the early 2000s, despite finding a partial reprieve after NY Fed President John Williams signaled no urgency to deliver the next rate hike.

Monday's session exhibited a risk-off tone after U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent oil and TTF gas closed higher, and stocks declined across the board, with U.S. equities underperforming Europe (the former was dragged down by its IT overweight, while the latter was cushioned by its energy-heavy composition).

Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove a risk-off move across markets on Friday, with Brent crude rising above USD 100/barrel as concerns over energy supply disruptions intensified. Global equities declined, while the US dollar strengthened as a safe haven, pushing the EURUSD cross toward 1.14.

Central banks took center stage, with a broadly hawkish tilt across major economies. The ECB left the depo rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected, but highlighted stagflationary risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. Euro area sovereign yields edged higher, as markets now fully price in two rate hikes in 2026, while the euro recovered and equities declined sharply.

Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply into the end of the week, as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on markets. Brent crude rose to USD 112/bbl while global equities sold off, led by US indices, with the Nasdaq now down around 10% from its recent peak.

Concerns over the economic growth impact of the Middle East conflict gained prominence, prompting a rotation into sovereign bonds after recent selling pressure driven by inflation fears. Equity markets were mixed globally, with sharp losses in Asia, modest gains in the euro area, and slight declines in the US.

Wednesday's session had a more mixed tone compared to Tuesday's broad selloff, with U.S. equities staging a partial recovery. European equities, however, remained under pressure, weighed down by higher sovereign yields. In FX markets, the yen strengthened against the dollar amid hawkish BoJ speak, while the euro remained roughly stable.

Markets pared risk aversion in the final session of the week. While August U.S. inflation figures reinforced market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike as soon as this week (to 88% from 72% on Thursday), stock markets closed higher across Europe and the U.S. as oil and gas retreated from their weekly highs.

As no major developments were reported in the Middle East, investors remained cautiously optimistic that US–Iran talks could resume in the coming days and the ceasefire will hold. Energy prices were broadly stable to softer, with Brent crude trading around $95/barrel and TTF gas easing toward €41/MWh.