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Investors traded in a positive mood as the OECD signaled a brighter economic outlook. According to its updated forecasts, the world economy is set to grow by 5.6% and 4.0% in 2021 and 2022. The OECD estimates that spillovers from the U.S. fiscal stimulus will add more than 1pp to global growth.

Friday's session was shorter in the US as markets closed at noon due to Thanksgiving's holidays. Treasury yields rose slightly and US stocks edged higher, with S&P 500 registering the largest gains in a 4-day stretch since May amid high expectations that the Fed will cut rates next week. The dollar continued to depreciate against its peers.

US Treasury yields ended yesterday's session mostly flat after the large sell-off they suffered on Monday. The market-implied probability of a Fed rate cut next week continued to stand close to 100%. The Japanese 2Y yield topped 1% early this week, its highest value since 2008, on continued expectations of a rate hike in two weeks.

Optimism about the economic recovery favored a rotation into cyclical equities as investors digested the U.S. Senate's approval of Biden's $1.9tn fiscal package. European stocks rose across the board while tech-related stocks sold off and weighed on the U.S.' Nasdaq and S&P 500 benchmarks.

In yesterday's session, European government bond yields broadly fell after December inflation numbers for Germany and France came in lower than expected, lowering odds of future rate hikes from the ECB. Investors will be attentive to today's release of December CPI in the euro area, looking for more hints on the rate path in the short term.

On Thursday, German Bund yields rebounded by +5bp, partially reversing the broad decline seen earlier this week, following a positive surprise in the country’s industrial orders data in November (+5.6% mom). Other euro area sovereign yields were broadly stable, leading to a further narrowing of peripheral spreads.

Markets showed limited reaction to the release of US December inflation data, which confirmed headline and core inflation unchanged at 2.7% and 2.6% yoy, respectively. US Treasury yields ended the session broadly flat, equities edged lower, and the US dollar was little changed against most major peers. Futures markets continue to price in the first Fed rate cut in June.

On Friday, the Japanese yen strengthened sharply after the Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 0.75% and signaled a hawkish stance. Speculation around potential currency intervention intensified after New York Fed officials reportedly sought information on the yen’s exchange rate, and Prime Minister Takaichi warned of action against “abnormal” market moves.

With investor focus on the tech sector, equity markets moved lower during the session. US stock indices posted modest losses, with tech stocks under pressure as investors continued to digest Q4 earnings results. European indices were weighed by losses in business software companies amid concerns over the potential disruptive impact of AI on their business models.

In the last session of the week, equity markets edged modestly higher, despite lingering doubts over the return on Big Tech investment in AI and questions around the robustness of corporate fundamentals, set against a backdrop of generally supportive macroeconomic data.

A new variant of the coronavirus in the U.K. triggered a global sell-off yesterday. The new variant, which is said to be up to 70% more infectious, sent stocks lower across the world.

Investors traded in a negative mood on Monday amid a deterioration of the health crisis in the EU and the United States, following one of the best weeks for stock markets since November.

Uncertainty continued to dominate markets in yesterday's session, as no progress was made in the Middle East conflict. The naval blockade of the Iranian coast and of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and peace talks have not been resumed. Market volatility ticked up and Brent prices continued to rise, reaching $105/barrel.

Investors ended the week on a cautious note as they assessed the prospects for renewed US–Iran talks over the weekend. Energy prices were volatile, with Brent crude finally settling around $105/bbl and European TTF gas near €45/MWh.

Risk sentiment improved late in the week as crude prices eased. European markets were closed on Friday for the May Day holiday, while US and OTC markets remained open. Here, risk sentiment was supported by lower crude prices for the second day in a row, following an Iranian proposal regarding negotiations with the US.

With no known progress on the peace negotiations in the Middle East, yesterday's session was driven by adjacent factors. Energy prices closed mixed as US Vice President JD Vance said neither side of the conflict wanted to take military action. Brent prices fell slightly to settle at USD 111/barrel while TTF prices rallied to close up 3%, at nearly EUR 52/MWh.

Yesterday's session had a rather quiet tone on mixed signals, as sources in Iran announced that differences between the counterparts in the Middle East conflict were beginning to shrink, although there were no advances on Iran's nuclear programme. Brent prices fell by more than 2%, while natural gas closed flat.

Investors opened the week with a risk-on tone after US officials, including President Trump, signalled over the weekend that negotiations with Iran were approaching an agreement. Trading volumes remained subdued, however, as several major markets, including the US and the UK, were closed for a bank holiday.

Investors traded in a risk-on mood as markets head into the holiday period. Yesterday, sentiment was supported by news that the UK and the EU are on the verge of unveiling a trade deal (an announcement is expected today).

Markets remained on a risk-on mode on Tuesday, with expectations of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices dropped 5% for the second consecutive session, settling at $79/bbl, a minimum since early March. TTF natural gas fell by nearly 2%, closing the session just below EUR 42/MWh, while the EUR/USD remained stable around 1,16.