On Friday, stock markets edged up in the U.S. and were mixed in the euro area (advancing in the periphery and nudging down in the core).
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European sovereign yields edged up on the back of upbeat comments from the ECB's Chief Economist Peter Praet, which gave investors greater confidence in the ECB's intentions to gradually wind down net asset purchases in the coming months.
The ECB announced the phasing out of quantitative easing with net purchases diminishing from 30 to 15 billion euros in the last quarter of the year and ceasing in December.
Financial markets continued to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates. Sovereign bond yields edged lower in the euro area and were stable in the U.S., while the dollar extended its recent weakening trend, leaving EUR/USD trading near 1.175. Futures markets continued to price in two rate cuts for next year, despite a seemingly divided FOMC.
Financial markets ended the week with another risk-off session as investors continued to consider the potential damage that coronavirus may have on the economy.
Tueday saw a mixed session across markets. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the resilience of the US economy but noted the labor market remains subdued, with limited hiring and firing activity, prompting a decline in short-term Treasury yields. Separately, the NFIB survey showed business confidence softened in September and many owners planned price increases.
Investor risk appetite soured and global risk assets fell after President Trump threatened a “massive” tariff hike on Chinese exports, citing “hostile” export controls over rare earths. Equity indices declined across the Atlantic, with the tech-focused Nasdaq among the worst performers. Trump’s threats were watered down over the weekend.
Without relevant macro data to trade on, no advances in negotiations to reopen the US government, nor any new developments in France, markets traded cautiously during yesterday's session. Euro area sovereign yields ended mostly flat while US Treasury yields edged lower, and stocks retreated globally. The euro weakened to 1.16 against the dollar.
In the first session of the week, investors awaited for clues on the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously as they awaited for what was expected to be a key vote in the U.K. on Saturday.
Investor optimism around trade talks led to a moderate risk-on mood at the end of the week. In particular, officials said that sections of the first phase of a trade deal between the U.S. and China are nearly completed.
Financial markets ended the week with a positive tone as investors perceived that a partial trade deal between the U.S. and China is closer. More concretely, the U.S. Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, said that progress was being made in the agreement's details.
In the US, the latest revision of Q2 GDP growth confirmed the economy is expanding at a stronger pace driven by resilient personal consumption and solid private investment. Investors pared back expectations for future Fed rate cuts to four by the end of 2026. This shift pushed Treasury yields higher.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with optimism as they weighed the details on the phase-one trade deal with the weaker-than-expected business sentiment data in advanced economies.
Investors ended the week in a mixed session, as they assessed the release of U.S. economic indicators and evolving tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's signature of the U.S.-China phase-one trade deal and the release of further details on the agreement.
In the last session of the week, financial markets exhibited a positive tone on the back of better-than-expected housing data in the U.S. and continued optimism on easing trade tensions.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a cautious mood as they weighed positive economic releases (UK factories' sentiment improved according to a survey and U.S. home sales rose close to a two-year high) against the resignation of Italy's M5S head Luigi Di Maio and the economic impact of the Chinese coronavirus outbreak.
Market sentiment steadied in the second session of the week. Volatility eased and global stocks (with the exception of Asia) recovered some of the ground lost on Monday.
Yesterday's session opened with the negative tone seen in the previous days driven by the increase in covid-19 cases around the globe.