In yesterday's session, investors traded with a cautious mood as they weighed positive economic releases (UK factories' sentiment improved according to a survey and U.S. home sales rose close to a two-year high) against the resignation of Italy's M5S head Luigi Di Maio and the economic impact of the Chinese coronavirus outbreak.
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In the last session of the week, financial markets exhibited a positive tone on the back of better-than-expected housing data in the U.S. and continued optimism on easing trade tensions.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's signature of the U.S.-China phase-one trade deal and the release of further details on the agreement.
Investors ended the week in a mixed session, as they assessed the release of U.S. economic indicators and evolving tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with optimism as they weighed the details on the phase-one trade deal with the weaker-than-expected business sentiment data in advanced economies.
In the US, the latest revision of Q2 GDP growth confirmed the economy is expanding at a stronger pace driven by resilient personal consumption and solid private investment. Investors pared back expectations for future Fed rate cuts to four by the end of 2026. This shift pushed Treasury yields higher.
Financial markets ended the week with a positive tone as investors perceived that a partial trade deal between the U.S. and China is closer. More concretely, the U.S. Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, said that progress was being made in the agreement's details.
Investor optimism around trade talks led to a moderate risk-on mood at the end of the week. In particular, officials said that sections of the first phase of a trade deal between the U.S. and China are nearly completed.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously as they awaited for what was expected to be a key vote in the U.K. on Saturday.
In the first session of the week, investors awaited for clues on the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.
Without relevant macro data to trade on, no advances in negotiations to reopen the US government, nor any new developments in France, markets traded cautiously during yesterday's session. Euro area sovereign yields ended mostly flat while US Treasury yields edged lower, and stocks retreated globally. The euro weakened to 1.16 against the dollar.
Investor risk appetite soured and global risk assets fell after President Trump threatened a “massive” tariff hike on Chinese exports, citing “hostile” export controls over rare earths. Equity indices declined across the Atlantic, with the tech-focused Nasdaq among the worst performers. Trump’s threats were watered down over the weekend.
Tueday saw a mixed session across markets. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the resilience of the US economy but noted the labor market remains subdued, with limited hiring and firing activity, prompting a decline in short-term Treasury yields. Separately, the NFIB survey showed business confidence softened in September and many owners planned price increases.
Yesterday's session was once again dominated by the uncertainty around the 2019's Italian fiscal deficit. In this context, the Italian risk premium continued to rise and exceeded the maximums reached in May (above 300bp).
Markets opened on a positive note after strong Nvidia earnings results, with a clear risk-on tone in Europe as equities rose and sovereign yields edged higher. But sentiment reversed sharply in the US after the European close, leading to a broad pullback in equities, with an intraday swing of nearly 5% in the Nasdaq, as the VIX hit its highest since April.
The main stock markets in advanced and emerging economies registered gains, with the exception of the Portuguese PSI and the Shanghai Index.
The last session of the week was marked by the announcement of the Italian 2019's fiscal deficit target (2.4% of GDP), which weighted on most European assets.
Yesterday's main news was the reopening of the US government after the largest shutdown in history. However, Treasury yields rose as markets priced a lower probability of a December rate cut amid lingering uncertainty over the inflation outlook and growing divisions among Fed officials.
Financial markets were less volatile in the first session of the week as investors digested the latest Jerome Powell's comments on the upcoming official interest rate moves (more flexible and aware to risks).
Friday's session was shorter in the US as markets closed at noon due to Thanksgiving's holidays. Treasury yields rose slightly and US stocks edged higher, with S&P 500 registering the largest gains in a 4-day stretch since May amid high expectations that the Fed will cut rates next week. The dollar continued to depreciate against its peers.