Friday's session was shorter in the US as markets closed at noon due to Thanksgiving's holidays. Treasury yields rose slightly and US stocks edged higher, with S&P 500 registering the largest gains in a 4-day stretch since May amid high expectations that the Fed will cut rates next week. The dollar continued to depreciate against its peers.
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Markets opened on a positive note after strong Nvidia earnings results, with a clear risk-on tone in Europe as equities rose and sovereign yields edged higher. But sentiment reversed sharply in the US after the European close, leading to a broad pullback in equities, with an intraday swing of nearly 5% in the Nasdaq, as the VIX hit its highest since April.
The main stock markets in advanced and emerging economies registered gains, with the exception of the Portuguese PSI and the Shanghai Index.
The last session of the week was marked by the announcement of the Italian 2019's fiscal deficit target (2.4% of GDP), which weighted on most European assets.
Yesterday's session was once again dominated by the uncertainty around the 2019's Italian fiscal deficit. In this context, the Italian risk premium continued to rise and exceeded the maximums reached in May (above 300bp).
Yesterday, the UK and the EU reached a provisional agreement on the Brexit Withdrawal deal, which still needs to be approved by the legislative powers in both regions.
Yesterday's main news was the reopening of the US government after the largest shutdown in history. However, Treasury yields rose as markets priced a lower probability of a December rate cut amid lingering uncertainty over the inflation outlook and growing divisions among Fed officials.
Financial markets were less volatile in the first session of the week as investors digested the latest Jerome Powell's comments on the upcoming official interest rate moves (more flexible and aware to risks).
In the last session of the week, stock indices declined across the globe and sovereign yields edged lower amid continuing concerns over trade tensions between the U.S. and China and better-than-expected U.S. retail sales.
Without any significant drivers, markets traded without a clear direction during yesterday’s session, pausing the previous’ days strong risk-on sentiment. Treasury yields edged lower in the US ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week (expected to lower interest rates by 25bp). European government yields fell across the region, keeping peripheral risk premia constant.
For the second consecutive day, markets traded without a clear direction. Government yields ended flat on both sides of the Atlantic while stocks mostly fell, with some exceptions in the euro area, amid reports that the Trump administration is considering to curb exports to China made with US software.
Investors traded cautiously in the last session of the week and stock indices rose mildly in most euro area trading floors and in the US (where the S&P 500 reached a new record high).
Investors ended the week on an upbeat note. Euro area PMIs suggested activity expanded during October (the composite index rose from 51.2 to 52.2), leading to higher sovereign yields and gains in the main equity indices. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation reinforced expectations of a Fed interest rate cut and boosted stock markets. The EURUSD held close to 1.16.
In yesterday session, investors continued to digest the dovish tone set by the main central banks (ECB, BoE, BoJ and Fed). The expectation of monetary policy stimulus in the coming months pushed global stock indices up.
Stock indices rose across the globe after Draghi said in Sintra's conference that more stimulus will be necessary in case there is no improvement in the risks to the economic outlook.
Advanced-economy stocks rose across the board as investors found support on positive indicators both in the U.S. (a solid +0.8% mom increase in capital goods orders in January and muted price pressures according to the producer price index, which rose +0.1% mom in February) and the Eurozone (industrial production +1.4% mom in January).
In the last session of the week, investors traded in a cautious mood as they continued to digest the Fed's more dovish and patient tone.
In a session where the inflow of macroeconomic and sentiment data was abundant in the U.S. and in the euro area, investors read it, overall, in the downside.
Financial markets started the week with less optimism than in the previous sessions, despite the positive comments around the U.S. - China trade negotiations.
Investors started the week with optimism and a risk-on mood. Despite the increase in COVID-19 cases around the globe, optimism surged on the back of better-than-expected business sentiment indicators.