Resultados de la búsqueda

Investors traded with a risk-on mood yesterday, after the confirmation that the Fed will begin this month to taper its net asset purchases, but that it will keep its policy interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, at least until the economy reaches full employment.

In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they positioned for today's conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting (where we expect Jerome Powell to announce the beginning of a reduction in the pace of net asset purchases) and tomorrow's Bank of England monetary policy meeting.

Risk appetite improved on Tuesday after US inflation surprised to the downside in June. The CPI print was driven by falling energy prioces but also softer core services, particularly shelter, overshadowing Warsh’s hawkish remarks in Congress, where he said he has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". Interest rate expectations for the Fed declined, with markets now pricing a second hike over the next 12 months with a 70% probability.

The ECB monetary policy meeting yielded, as expected, no change in the official interest rates and a communication consistent with a first rate cut in June, at the next meeting. Christine Lagarde reiterated, though, that the ECB will be data-dependent and added that it will not be Fed-dependent.

In yesterday's session, investors traded with optimism as they weighed the details on the phase-one trade deal with the weaker-than-expected business sentiment data in advanced economies.

In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they continued to assess whether central banks will be able to tame inflationary pressures without causing a hard landing. Geopolitical news centered the stage too, after the G7 meeting in Germany and ahead of today's NATO summit in Madrid.

The week started off with a volatile session as markets await key economic data this week (PMIs for advanced economies and US 3Q GDP), 3Q euro area Bank Lending Survey, the ECB's rate decision, further 3Q earnings, and news from the Middle East.

In yesterday's session, new data supported investors' expectations that interest rate cuts could begin this summer, which sent euro area and US sovereign bond yields down. Specifically, weekly unemployment benefit claims rose in the US, and the minutes from the ECB's March meeting confirmed officials are confident inflation is moving in the right direction.

Investors ended the week on a cautious note as they assessed the prospects for renewed US–Iran talks over the weekend. Energy prices were volatile, with Brent crude finally settling around $105/bbl and European TTF gas near €45/MWh.

Central banks took center stage, with a broadly hawkish tilt across major economies. The ECB left the depo rate unchanged at 2.00%, as expected, but highlighted stagflationary risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. Euro area sovereign yields edged higher, as markets now fully price in two rate hikes in 2026, while the euro recovered and equities declined sharply.

In yesterday’s session, investors traded cautiously as they continued to assess the intensity and duration of the monetary policy tightening that central banks are likely to agree this week and in the coming months.

Investors ended the week in a mixed session, as they assessed the release of U.S. economic indicators and evolving tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Uncertainty continued to dominate markets in yesterday's session, as no progress was made in the Middle East conflict. The naval blockade of the Iranian coast and of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and peace talks have not been resumed. Market volatility ticked up and Brent prices continued to rise, reaching $105/barrel.

In an eventful session, investors traded with a risk-on mood and stock indices rose in the U.S. and in most euro area trading floors. In fixed-income markets, sovereign yields edged up in both sides of the Atlantic, specially so in Italy, where Mario Draghi presented the 2022 fiscal budget with some tax cuts and an increase in the retirement age.

Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's signature of the U.S.-China phase-one trade deal and the release of further details on the agreement.

The sell-off in the US bond market continued on Monday as worries about inflation erode expected bond returns. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose 3 basis points to 1.37%. These worries also hit Asian markets, where Japan's 10-year yields rose to 0.13% and Australia's rose to its highest level since June 2019 (1.61%).

Yesterday’s session was driven by the US February CPI report, which showed inflation last month was 3.2% yoy, slightly higher than January’s reading at 3.1%. Despite the slight acceleration, markets still expect the Fed to begin cutting rates this year, betting on a total of 4 cuts, with the first one being on June (with 77% probability).

In yesterday’s session, investors traded with a risk-on mood as the US Senate passed a bill that averted a government shutdown. The bill still has yet to pass the House of Representatives, but if it succeeds, the Federal government will be able to fund itself until early March.

During a volatile session, financial markets closed with mixed results, balancing out another upside surprise in HICP inflation data in the eurozone (up by 9.1% y/y in August) with signs that job creation in the US may have moderated in August (according to the ADP survey).