Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await key economic releases this week, including euro area 1Q GDP (today), which is expected to show the economy grew 0.2% yoy, euro area April inflation (today) expected to stay at 2.4% yoy, and the Fed’s FOMC meeting tomorrow, where markets anticipate no changes to the Fed’s target rate.
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In yesterday's session investors adjusted their interest rate expectations amid monetary policy and fiscal news in the euro area, while corporate profits centered the stage in the US.
The ECB monetary policy meeting yielded, as expected, no change in the official interest rates and a communication consistent with a first rate cut in June, at the next meeting. Christine Lagarde reiterated, though, that the ECB will be data-dependent and added that it will not be Fed-dependent.
Investors traded with a cautious mood in yesterday’s session amid mixed economic data in the US and a delicate geopolitical situation. Nevertheless, US and NATO comments are for now ruling out the possibility that the missiles hitting Poland had a Russian origin.
In yesterday's session, new data supported investors' expectations that interest rate cuts could begin this summer, which sent euro area and US sovereign bond yields down. Specifically, weekly unemployment benefit claims rose in the US, and the minutes from the ECB's March meeting confirmed officials are confident inflation is moving in the right direction.
In the last session of the week, investors traded with an optimistic mood amid steady economic indicators and as the US debt ceiling deal seemed more likely. In fact, on Saturday President Joe Biden and House speaker McCarthy reached a deal to raise the ceiling that will now have to pass Congress.
Yesterday’s session was driven by the US February CPI report, which showed inflation last month was 3.2% yoy, slightly higher than January’s reading at 3.1%. Despite the slight acceleration, markets still expect the Fed to begin cutting rates this year, betting on a total of 4 cuts, with the first one being on June (with 77% probability).
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they continued to assess whether central banks will be able to tame inflationary pressures without causing a hard landing. Geopolitical news centered the stage too, after the G7 meeting in Germany and ahead of today's NATO summit in Madrid.
Another volatile session with mixed results on Thursday, with the focus still on the potential impact of tighter monetary policy on rate-sensitive sectors. Investors are also monitoring the Q4 earnings results.
Investors closed the week trading cautiously, still digesting the hawkish rhetoric by some key Fed officials (St Louis Fed James Bullard) and data showing a further decline in home sales in the US in October.
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously amid mixed economic data releases. In the US, the services ISM declined from 53.4 to 52.6 in February, with the prices paid subcomponent declining from 64.0 to 58.6,. easing analysts' concerns of a further spike in inflationary pressures.
Financial markets started the week with a slight risk-averse tone as investors await inflation data, to be released later this week, that will be key in determining interest rates’ future path. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board, while equity indices edged lower in the US and the euro area.
During Friday’s session, markets traded with a slightly higher risk appetite to end a week without any major economic data releases. Sovereign bond yields fell across the board, most notably on the longer ends of the curves, while the main equity indices advanced slightly.
During a volatile session, the risk-on mood recorded during the first hours of trading was eclipsed by a hawkish stance during the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year.
On Tuesday, the better-than-expected release of February PMIs fueled an increase in investors’ expectations for the path of official interest rates, which, in turn, pushed sovereign bond yields up in the euro area and in the US.
In a session with no big economic data releases, except for the -1.1% m/m December retail sales in the euro area, investors reassessed their expectation on the upcoming central bank interest rate cuts.
Financial markets started the week with a risk-on session, as investors shifted their focus to corporate earnings and economic indicators, taking a breath from the prospect of monetary policy tightening by the major central banks.
In the last session of the week investors focused on the increasing bets for a tightening of monetary policy across advanced economies and the better-than-expected corporate earnings releases.
In yesterday’s session, global stock markets advanced as investors increased risk appetite following reports about a Chinese stimulus to support the local stock market, a better-than-expected earnings season in the U.S. so far, and a favorable US PMI reading. Sovereign bond yields edged lower in the euro area and slightly rose in the U.S.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment improved amid optimistic comments from Russian officials, which increased the odds of a diplomatic solution, and following the description of the outlook from Jerome Powell, who said the US economy is very strong and with an extremely tight labor market.