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Financial markets ended the week with a positive tone as investors perceived that a partial trade deal between the U.S. and China is closer. More concretely, the U.S. Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, said that progress was being made in the agreement's details.

Stocks rallied in yesterday's session, supported by recovering economic data. In particular, U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 4.8 million in June –the largest increase on record, even though the unemployment rate still stood above 10% (11.1% in June down from 13.3% in May). Yet, U.S. sovereign yields nudged down and the USD strengthened.

With investor focus on the tech sector, equity markets moved lower during the session. US stock indices posted modest losses, with tech stocks under pressure as investors continued to digest Q4 earnings results. European indices were weighed by losses in business software companies amid concerns over the potential disruptive impact of AI on their business models.

As expected, the ECB lowered interest rates by 25 bp, taking the depo and refi rates to 3.75% and 4.25%, respectively. As for its next steps, the ECB once again remarked future decisions will be “data-dependent”, noting that the inflation path will not be exempt from surprises.

The week ended on a ‘higher for longer’ note, which weighed on assets. US non-farm payrolls for May showed a greater-than-expected job creation and an acceleration in average hourly earnings growth, while euro area compensation per employee also surprised on the upside, sending sovereign yields higher across the board on both sides of the Atlantic.

Financial markets ended the day with mixed results, as stronger-than-expected inflation data in both the U.S. and China reinforced investors’ fears about the persistency of the pickup in prices.

Market sentiment turned positive following the release of robust data confirming the resilience of the US economy and continued inflation containment in the euro area. Equity markets posted broad-based gains, led by cyclical sectors.

Sentiment deteriorated across financial markets on Wednesday, as investors digested the hawkish narrative in the accounts of the Fed’s latest meeting and the likely new imposition of sanctions against Russia.

During a volatile session, markets erased some of the early gains after comments by Fed VP Richard Clarida noting that the central bank could start discussing in upcoming meetings adjusting the pace of asset purchases (tapering). In addition, house prices in the U.S. continued to accelerate while consumer confidence stalled.

Risk-off sentiment continued to dominate financial markets as tensions mounted in the Middle East. Oil prices rose 5%, with the Brent reference closing around $77/barrel, and the dollar strengthened.

In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously in absence of key macroeconomic data releases and as they waited for monetary policy meetings this week in the main central banks.

Risk-off session in financial markets as the conflict in the Middle East intensified with an Iranian missile attack on Israel. Global stocks closed the session with losses of around 1%, while sovereign bonds, the US dollar and gold all rose as investors turned to safe assets. Brent oil prices rose by more than 2% close to $74/barrel.

Friday's session was driven by optimism, especially in the euro area, where Thursday evening geopolitical headlines (Trump cancelled the strikes that were planned on Iran and declared being close to a peace agreement) were put in price. This deal has been reached during the weekend, it will be signed on Friday and will imply the reopening of Strait of Hormuz.

Lower-than-expected inflation data on both sides of the Atlantic drove financial markets' sentiment. Preliminary figures from Spain and France showed headline inflation below 2%, at 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. In the US, the PCE price index fell to 2.2% from 2.5%, making solid progress towards the Fed's target.

US inflation surprised slightly to the downside, with headline CPI easing to 2.4% yoy (vs. 2.5% expected), down from 2.7% in December. The softer reading boosted expectations of further Fed easing, with money markets now pricing a 50% probability of a third 25bp rate cut in 2026. US Treasury yields declined by around 5bp across the curve.

Volatility and risk aversion continued to set the tone across markets on Wednesday, with investors taking position ahead of a crucial inflation report in the US later today and the kickoff of the Q3 corporate earnings season on Friday.

Stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production data in the US renewed expectations of a soft-landing for the economy, just as the Fed is expected to lower interest rates today. Rate futures are reflecting a 65% probability of a 50 bp rate cut and a total of -116 bp over the remaining three meetings this year.

Markets remained on a risk-on mode on Tuesday, with expectations of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices dropped 5% for the second consecutive session, settling at $79/bbl, a minimum since early March. TTF natural gas fell by nearly 2%, closing the session just below EUR 42/MWh, while the EUR/USD remained stable around 1,16.

Investors ended the week digesting a raft of month-end economic data on both sides of the Atlantic. In the Eurozone, Thursday's release of August inflation figures, which showed headline inflation stable at 5.3%, sent sovereign bond yields higher and major stock indices lower on Friday, despite an encouraging slowdown in core inflation.