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In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they continued to assess whether central banks will be able to tame inflationary pressures without causing a hard landing. Geopolitical news centered the stage too, after the G7 meeting in Germany and ahead of today's NATO summit in Madrid.

Yesterday’s session was driven by the US February CPI report, which showed inflation last month was 3.2% yoy, slightly higher than January’s reading at 3.1%. Despite the slight acceleration, markets still expect the Fed to begin cutting rates this year, betting on a total of 4 cuts, with the first one being on June (with 77% probability).

In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously amid mixed economic data releases. In the US, the services ISM declined from 53.4 to 52.6 in February, with the prices paid subcomponent declining from 64.0 to 58.6,. easing analysts' concerns of a further spike in inflationary pressures.

A shocking inflation release in the US centered the stage yesterday in financial markets. Headline CPI rose in June by 9.1% y/y and 1.3 m/m, reinforcing the Federal Reserve intention to raise rates by 75bp again at its July meeting. Additionally, investors have started to price in a 100bp hike, in line with yesterday's decision of the Bank of Canada.

In yesterday's session, investors traded with a risk-off mood following the downward revision of the European Commission forecasts. While 2022 GDP for the euro are was barely revised to 2.6%, 2023's changed from 2.3% to 1.4%. The EC revised its inflation forecasts from 6.1% and 2.7% to 7.6% and 4.0% for 2022 and 2023, respectively.

In the last session of the week, investors' sentiment improved as the odds for a 100bp hike in the next US Federal Reserve meeting decreased.

Financial markets started the week with a slight risk-averse tone as investors await inflation data, to be released later this week, that will be key in determining interest rates’ future path. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board, while equity indices edged lower in the US and the euro area.

During Friday’s session, markets traded with a slightly higher risk appetite to end a week without any major economic data releases. Sovereign bond yields fell across the board, most notably on the longer ends of the curves, while the main equity indices advanced slightly.

In yesterday's session, investors weighed mixed corporate earnings results with better-than-expected flash January PMIs. In particular, the composite indices for the euro area and the US edged up from 49.3 and 45.0 to 50.2 and 46.6, respectively. Both sectors, services and manufacturing, registered an improvement from the previous month.

Yesterday investors traded cautiously as the threat of a possible US government shutdown by the end of the week and “high for longer” interest rates continue to lead the narrative. Investors were also at odds with Minneappolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s dovish tone regarding interest rates path ahead.

In yesterday’s session, global stock markets advanced as investors increased risk appetite following reports about a Chinese stimulus to support the local stock market, a better-than-expected earnings season in the U.S. so far, and a favorable US PMI reading. Sovereign bond yields edged lower in the euro area and slightly rose in the U.S.

Financial markets started the week on a risk-off mood, as the Russian gas cut off worsened the European energy crisis and the region’s economic outlook. 

Investors ended the week with mixed results, with sentiment supported by data showing employment growth in the US slowed down in August, in line with expectations, while the jobless rate rose by 0.2 p. p. to 3.7%. In the eurozone, producer prices (PPI) rose by 37.9% y/y in July, fueling concerns that inflationary pressures are building up.

Risk aversion continued to set the tone across markets on Thursday, following the imposition of lockdown measures in some big urban areas in China. In the US, new weekly jobless claims and the manufacturing ISM survey surprised positively, which, in turn, exacerbated fears among investors of more aggressive interest rate hikes.

In yesterday’s session, investors traded with a risk-on mood as the US Senate passed a bill that averted a government shutdown. The bill still has yet to pass the House of Representatives, but if it succeeds, the Federal government will be able to fund itself until early March.

During a volatile session, financial markets closed with mixed results, balancing out another upside surprise in HICP inflation data in the eurozone (up by 9.1% y/y in August) with signs that job creation in the US may have moderated in August (according to the ADP survey). 

Investors continued to trade with caution at the start of the week, still digesting the hawkish rhetoric at Jackson Hole conference last weekend and taking on board mixed signals from ECB officials, after chief economist Philip Lane cautioned against outsized interest rate hikes, calling instead for a "steady pace" until the end of its hiking cycle.

Investors continued to readjust their expectations about the future pace of monetary policy tightening, after data showed real GDP fell by 0.2% q/q in the US in Q2, the second consecutive quarterly decline.

In a session with no big economic data releases, except for the -1.1% m/m December retail sales in the euro area, investors reassessed their expectation on the upcoming central bank interest rate cuts.

In the first session of the week, investors' sentiment deteriorated amid concerns on whether the ongoing withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation will be able to tackle inflationary pressures without leading to a recession.