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Markets had a muted reaction to President Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race and endorse Vice President Harris as the Democratic candidate. Sovereign bond yields were mostly unchanged on both sides of the Atlantic and the US dollar was flat against its main counterparts.

In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously in absence of key macroeconomic data releases and as they waited for monetary policy meetings this week in the main central banks.

Risk-off sentiment continued to dominate financial markets as tensions mounted in the Middle East. Oil prices rose 5%, with the Brent reference closing around $77/barrel, and the dollar strengthened.

Investors closed the week with a cautious mood amid mixed economic data releases in the U.S. and dovish comments from ECB officials. In particular, the Finnish and Lithuanian central banks' chiefs insisted that the current inflation is transitory, although it may last longer than initially expected.

During a volatile session, the risk-on mood recorded during the first hours of trading was eclipsed by a hawkish stance during the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year.

In yesterday’s session, investors continued to trade with caution amid intensifying political negotiations in the US to raise the debt ceiling and mixed economic data releases. In Europe, the May’s ZEW survey fell in the euro area and Germany, showing that investors’ sentiment remains gloomy.

Financial markets ended the day with mixed results, as stronger-than-expected inflation data in both the U.S. and China reinforced investors’ fears about the persistency of the pickup in prices.

Financial markets started the week with a risk-on session, as investors shifted their focus to corporate earnings and economic indicators, taking a breath from the prospect of monetary policy tightening by the major central banks.

Investors' risk appetite waned yesterday amid renewed tensions in the war in Ukraine. Government bond yields rose in the Eurozone, where data released yesterday showed that negotiated wage growth accelerated to 5.4% in Q3 from 4.6% in Q2, which could cause the ECB to reconsider its dovishness if this feeds through to inflation in the coming months.

In the last session of the week investors focused on the increasing bets for a tightening of monetary policy across advanced economies and the better-than-expected corporate earnings releases.

Investors traded with caution in yesterday’s session, amid mixed economic data releases and hawkish central banks’ communication. In particular, the minutes of the last ECB meeting showed how Governing Council members agreed to further tighten monetary policy if the inflation outlook in March’s projections is confirmed.

Thursday's trading was driven by two US data points: September inflation, which came in slightly higher than expected, and weekly jobless claims, which came in higher than expected, indicating some weakness in the labour market. The debate on the Fed's next move was further fueled by Fed's Barkin words saying it was too soon to declare victory over inflation.

A cautious approach was retaken by investors on Wednesday, driven by uncertainty on the geopolitical risk involving Ukraine and the exit strategy of major central banks in advanced economies. These headwinds more than offset better-than-expected data for January in the US (+3.8% m/m for retail sales and 1.4% for industrial production).

In the last session of the week, investors traded with an optimistic mood amid steady economic indicators and as the US debt ceiling deal seemed more likely. In fact, on Saturday President Joe Biden and House speaker McCarthy reached a deal to raise the ceiling that will now have to pass Congress.

In the first session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid hawkish comments from some FOMC member and mixed results in the US corporate earnings season. In particular, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that more evidence that US inflation is easing will be needed before changing the monetary policy stance.

In the last session of the week investors traded with a risk-off mood amid escalating tensions around Russia and Ukraine. During the weekend, the White House accepted a summit between Biden and Putin as long as Russia does not invade Ukraine, a move that could help deescalating tensions.

In an eventful session, investors traded with a risk-on mood and stock indices rose in the U.S. and in most euro area trading floors. In fixed-income markets, sovereign yields edged up in both sides of the Atlantic, specially so in Italy, where Mario Draghi presented the 2022 fiscal budget with some tax cuts and an increase in the retirement age.

In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously as they positioned for today's conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting (where we expect Jerome Powell to announce the beginning of a reduction in the pace of net asset purchases) and tomorrow's Bank of England monetary policy meeting.

Investors traded with a risk-on mood yesterday, after the confirmation that the Fed will begin this month to taper its net asset purchases, but that it will keep its policy interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, at least until the economy reaches full employment.

Another volatile session with mixed results on Thursday, with the focus still on the potential impact of tighter monetary policy on rate-sensitive sectors. Investors are also monitoring the Q4 earnings results.