Yesterday's session showed sharp risk-off moves amid escalating Middle East tensions, with volatility picking up across assets. Brent rose to $77/barrel (briefly touching $80 during the day) and European natural gas climbed to EUR 44/MWh. Equities sold-off in Asia (-1%) and the euro area (-2%), while US markets showed relative resilience. The US dollar strengthened, gold advanced, and sovereign yields moved higher globally as investors moved into safe-have assets.
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A global selloff in stock markets continued on Thursday, as worries mounted about the direction of the global economic recovery and the potential spillovers on the outlook for companies’ earnings.
Yesterday investors traded cautiously as the threat of a possible US government shutdown by the end of the week and “high for longer” interest rates continue to lead the narrative. Investors were also at odds with Minneappolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s dovish tone regarding interest rates path ahead.
Investors kicked off the week with a somewhat quiet session as they await key inflation data later this week: June CPI for France, Spain and Italy; and the US PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
Global markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields advanced as investors eyed negotiations over the EU stimulus plan ahead of the European Council.
Global stocks tumbled on Tuesday, with the tech sector in Europe suffering its biggest drop since October, mirroring a selloff on the Nasdaq (-1.9%, sharpest fall since March). The decline was driven by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that interest rates may need to rise to prevent the economy from overheating.
Financial markets ended the week in a risk-off mode despite Friday's inflation data showing that disinflation is progressing on both sides of the Atlantic: US core PCE came in at 2.6% YoY, as expected; and in the eurozone the HCPI prints for Spain, France and Italy were also broadly in line with expectations at 3.5% YoY, 2.5% YoY, and 0.9% YoY, respectively.
Investor optimism around trade talks led to a moderate risk-on mood at the end of the week. In particular, officials said that sections of the first phase of a trade deal between the U.S. and China are nearly completed.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously as they pondered over an uncertain economic outlook. Stocks rose moderately in advanced economies while exhibiting a better performance in emerging economies. In FX markets, the USD weakened against most AE currencies.
In the latest session, investor caution prevailed amid lingering concerns over the profitability of AI, a somewhat more hawkish tone from the Fed, and an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran.
In a session with a Triple witching hour in the U.S., an event that usually increases volume and volatility as several futures and options expire simultaneously, stock indices declined in the euro area and in the U.S. while sovereign yields edged moderately up on both sides of the Atlantic.
Risk sentiment improved late in the week as crude prices eased. European markets were closed on Friday for the May Day holiday, while US and OTC markets remained open. Here, risk sentiment was supported by lower crude prices for the second day in a row, following an Iranian proposal regarding negotiations with the US.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously as they awaited for what was expected to be a key vote in the U.K. on Saturday.
Financial markets started the week with all eyes on the ECB’s Governing Council meeting on Thursday. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and stick to its "data dependency" approach. European sovereign bond yields fell and peripheral spreads tightened yesterday ahead of the meeting and today's Q2 Bank Lending Survey.
Markets on both sides of the Atlantic saw mixed results yesterday. In the eurozone, where all eyes are on tomorrow’s ECB meeting, sovereign bond yields fell while peripheral spreads remained flat after the ZEW survey showed German business sentiment at its lowest in four months in July and despite the Q2 BLS showing an increase in credit demand.
During yesterday's session, investors continued to assess the results of the French elections last weekend which left the country with a fragmented National Assembly. Financial markets seemed to value the situation negatively and adopted a risk-averse tone, sending euro area sovereign bond yields higher and equities sharply lower, particularly in France.
Risk-aversion returned to the fore during a volatile session on Thursday, as investors continued to digest recent monetary policy decisions by central banks (Fed, BoE) and took on board disappointing economic data (e.g. the fall in factory orders in Germany and the uptick in new jobless claims in the US).
Investors’ attention during Friday’s session focused on the worldwide cyber outage that affected banks, airlines, and telecommunications companies. The software glitch unnerved investors and dragged down overall sentiment, affecting mostly equity markets which ended the session lower across the globe.
Financial markets ended the week on a positive tone, on the back of better-than-expected Q3 corporate results and economic data releases in the U.S. In particular, retail sales rose by 0.7% mom in September, well above the Bloomberg consensus (0.2% decline).
Markets had a muted reaction to President Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race and endorse Vice President Harris as the Democratic candidate. Sovereign bond yields were mostly unchanged on both sides of the Atlantic and the US dollar was flat against its main counterparts.