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Risk appetite extended across financial markets on Thursday, with sentiment lifted by resilient economic data and further signs that inflationary pressures are easing. The focus today turns to the kickoff of the Q1 corporate earnings season, with results from some large US banks. 

On Friday, the release of HICP inflation data in the euro area centered the stage in financial markets. Headline inflation fell sharply from 8.5% to 6.9% y/y in March, but core inflation ticked up to 7.5% in a sign that price pressures are persisting. In this context, ECB member Villeroy de Galhau said there are still some more rate hikes to do.

Financial markets ended the week on a positive tone, on the back of better-than-expected Q3 corporate results and economic data releases in the U.S. In particular, retail sales rose by 0.7% mom in September, well above the Bloomberg consensus (0.2% decline).

In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment improved amid optimistic comments from Russian officials, which increased the odds of a diplomatic solution, and following the description of the outlook from Jerome Powell, who said the US economy is very strong and with an extremely tight labor market.

Financial markets had a mixed session yesterday, although the overall mood among investors remained gloomy as they await today's U.S. inflation report for August, which is expected to show easing price pressures. Government bond yields fell across the board on both sides of the Atlantic.

Macroeconomic events and data releases shadowed latest developments of the Ukrainian war, as the ECB meeting and US CPI inflation centered stage in financial markets. On the latter, headline inflation rose as expected in February from 7.5% to 7.9% and core inflation rose from 6.0% to 6.4%.

Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious note as they await the ECB's Governing Council meeting (on Thursday), widely expected to lower interest rates by 25bp, and US inflation figures for November (released on Wednesday), a key report for the Fed's decision next week.

Stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production data in the US renewed expectations of a soft-landing for the economy, just as the Fed is expected to lower interest rates today. Rate futures are reflecting a 65% probability of a 50 bp rate cut and a total of -116 bp over the remaining three meetings this year.

Financial markets started the week with a sell-off session in stock markets as energy prices rose sharply following threats from the US to restrict oil imports from Russia and Russia threats to cut gas flows to Europe. In addition, the euro area investor sentiment index Sentix declined to -7.0 in March, the lowest level since November 2020.

Investors started the week with a greater risk appetite than the previous one. Sovereign bond yields were mixed among regions and maturities while, in the money markets, yields fell on both sides of the Atlantic.

Financial markets ended the week on a mixed note. In the US, November payrolls data showed that employment grew slightly more than expected (with October data revised upwards), but unemployment rose by 0.1% to 4.2% and wage growth accelerated slightly. Treasury yields fell and the probability of a -25bp cut by the Fed in December rose to 90%.

In yesterday's session, investors' concerns about the pace of economic activity in the coming months led to a generalized risk-off sentiment. In particular, the US manufacturing ISM declined from 47.7 to 46.3 while the prices paid subcomponent fell too (from 51.1 to 49.2).

Lower-than-expected inflation data on both sides of the Atlantic drove financial markets' sentiment. Preliminary figures from Spain and France showed headline inflation below 2%, at 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. In the US, the PCE price index fell to 2.2% from 2.5%, making solid progress towards the Fed's target.

Financial markets started the week with a risk-off session where investors' preference for safe assets rose as they assessed the impact of the sanctions imposed on Russia.

Investors traded cautiously ahead of today's release of the US jobs report. Other labor market data released yesterday, like the ADP report, showed non-farm private employment cooled in August, while weekly jobless claims fell, pointing to weakening demand in the labor market, although layoffs remain low.

Financial markets ended the week with mixed results, balancing the positive tone from the corporate results for the Q3 earning season with disappointing survey economic data in Europe.

Investors traded cautiously amid political tensions in France, where lawmakers are set to vote today on no-confidence motions. Euro area sovereign bond yields edged lower, and France's risk premium narrowed to 85bp after reaching 88bp in the previous session. The region's main stock indices advanced slightly, and the euro held steady at 1.05 against the dollar.

In the last session of the week, investors' sentiment improved and their preference for riskier assets rose after the sharp sell-off sessions that preceded Friday.

Investors traded with cautious optimism at the last session of the week, still hopeful a resolution in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could be possible. In addition, a meeting by US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping over the crisis in Ukraine ended without big surprises.

Trading in global markets was subdued on Tuesday as US markets were closed due to a domestic holiday and there was little in the way of data releases to guide investors. The most notable of these was German exports, which fell -0.1% m/m in May, missing analysts’ expectations of a 0.3% rise.