Financial markets started the week with all eyes on the ECB’s Governing Council meeting on Thursday. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and stick to its "data dependency" approach. European sovereign bond yields fell and peripheral spreads tightened yesterday ahead of the meeting and today's Q2 Bank Lending Survey.
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In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously as they awaited for what was expected to be a key vote in the U.K. on Saturday.
In yesterday's session, investors' attention focused on the ECB monetary policy meeting, where interest rates were hiked by 25bp to 4.0% (depo) and 4.5% (refi). More importantly, the ECB said that these levels, if maintained for a sufficiently long period, might not need to be raised further to return inflation back to 2%.
Yesterday’s session centered around the June inflation report from the US: inflation cooled to 3.0% in June (from 3.3% in May) and core inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.4% last month. On a monthly basis, prices fell –0.1%, the first negative rate in four years. Markets are discounting two interest rate cut from the Fed in 2024, and a 40% probability of a third cut.
La crisis actual está desencadenando cambios en numerosos aspectos de nuestras vidas, muchos de ellos relacionados con nuestras preferencias residenciales. Por ejemplo, el teletrabajo puede llegar a transformar cómo y dónde vivimos. La pandemia también ha supuesto un impulso a la digitalización del sector inmobiliario y podría acelerar ciertas transformaciones en otros ámbitos como la rehabilitación de vivienda, lo que apoyaría la transición hacia una economía más sostenible.
Brent oil and TTF gas whipsawed and stock markets were mixed as hostilities in the Middle East continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Tech equities steadied after last week's rout, but both the S&P 500 and the Eurostoxx closed moderately lower.
In the last session of the week, stock markets advanced both in the U.S. and Europe, while in sovereign bond markets yields were roughly stable.
U.S. stock markets rebounded while in Europe the tone was mixed. In sovereign bond markets, 10-year yields nudged down in the U.S. and edged up in the Euro Area.
Developed stock markets registered reasonable gains as the earning season started on a the right foot, especially in the US.
As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB did not introduce changes in its monetary policy stance and maintained its pledge to move slowly in removing stimulus, repeating that interest rates are expected to remain at present levels until well past the end of net asset purchases.
Strong rebound in sovereign yields especially for the Treasury yields that reached the highest level in two month mainly on the announcement of Donald Trump's tax-cut plan.
International markets experienced a surge in risk aversion during the last day of the week, with significant losses in most of developed stock markets and decreases in sovereign bond yields, as the investigation on a potential case of obstruction of justice by President Trump made a big step on Friday.
Financial markets started the week without major turbulences and still digesting Powell's dovish comments from last week. In this sense, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said yesterday that the inflation spike will be transitory and that the U.S. labor market is not yet at full employment.
Stock markets decreased slightly in the U.S. as investors are still concerned about the changes in the Trump administration.
Stock markets mixed on Wednesday, as they remained broadly stable in the US, declined in the euro area periphery and advanced in Germany.
Markets traded in a cautious mood in yesterday's session. Stocks were mixed across advanced and emerging economies while in FX markets the USD strengthened against the major currencies. In commodity markets, prices were little changed.
Friday's session was driven by the provisional agreement reached by the US and Iran for a 60-day ceasefire that would pave the way to resume talks regarding Teheran's nuclear programme. Energy prices fell accordingly, broadly by 2%, and market-implied volatility also ticked down.
U.S. stock markets ended their worst week in two years on a positive note, while European stocks also suffered losses in the last session of the week.
In the last session of August, investors weighed the slowdown of some economic sentiment indicators (e.g.: U.S. Conference Board's consumer confidence at 113.8 from 125.1 in July and China's Composite PMI down to 48.9 in August from 52.4) against an upside surprise in the euro area inflation.
Investors remained cautious during the last day of the week with most of the main developped stock markets relatively stable and small decreases in sovereign yields.