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Another session with mixed results across financial markets on Wednesday, with investors keeping the focus on solid economic data and the likely implications for monetary policy decisions by major central banks.

Volatility and precaution continued to set the tone yesterday, with investors digesting hawkish messages from FOMC officials and hotter-than-expected PPI inflation data in the US (+0.7% m/m in January, the largest gain since June).

Investors continued to trade with caution on Tuesday, taking on board the upside surprise in February HICP inflation in both France (7.2% y/y) and Spain (6.1%) and dialing up its expectations for policy interest rates hikes (money markets price the depo rate could near 4% by year end). Today, the German HICP data is released.

The dovish hike delivered by the Federal Reserve and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen comments, signaling that regulators are not considering a broad expansion of deposit insurance, centered the stage in financial markets. 

Investors traded with a risk-on mood on Wednesday. The main drivers were a rally in tech stocks, boosted by the restructuring plans from China’s Alibaba Group, as well as receding fears of contagion from the banking turmoil.

Caution continued to set the tone in financial markets amid mixed corporate profits releases and hawkish comments by US Federal Reserve members. In particular, Raphael Bostic argued in favor of a rate hike in May’s meeting, and pausing there, while James Bullard leaned towards bringing interest rates towards the 5.50-5.75% target range.

Investors ended the week sticking with a cautious approach, taking on board mixed corporate earnings and resilient economic sentiment data pointing to more monetary policy tightening ahead. For the ECB, VP Luis de Guindos said core inflation remains “very sticky”and added that the next ECB moves will be based on data.

Risk aversion returned to the fore during a volatile session on Tuesday, with investors sentiment faltered by the release of weak consumer confidence data and mixed signals from the ongoing Q1 corporate earnings season.

In yesterday's session, investors traded with a risk-off mood amid concerns on the US debt ceiling and clearer signs that the US labor market is cooling down. In particular, job vacancies in March declined by 400k to 9,590k, the lowest level since April 2021.

Investors started the week trading with a more cautious approach, with sentiment negatively impacted by weak industrial data in Germany (–3.4% m/m in March, well below expectations) and signs of tightening credit conditions in the US, according to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.

In yesterday's session, investors traded with an optimistic mood as negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to raise the US debt ceiling seemed to advance fast. Accordingly, House speaker (McCarthy) and Senate Majority Leader (Schumer) are already preparing the vote count for a bipartisan deal to avoid reaching the debt ceiling.

Last week ended on a subdued note. Equity indexes were mixed, mostly lower in Europe but with some gains in the US, especially in the interest rate sensitive Nasdaq. Long-dated government bond yields were broadly lower, while shorter-dated yields rose, particularly in the US. Oil and commodities were lower following weak Chinese economic data.

Investors closed the week with yet another risk-off session, as recession fears returned to the fore following weaker-than-expected economic survey data across advanced economies.

Fears of a global economic slowdown continued to weigh on investor sentiment at the start of the week, following a new batch of disappointing economic survey data and concerns about recent geopolitical developments in Russia.

Investors ended the week on a brighter note than on Thursday. Market sentiment was boosted by encouraging data on inflation dynamics in the US and in the eurozone (despite a modest tick up in core inflation).

In yesterday's session, investors continued to digest the lower-than-expected US inflation report for June and traded with a risk-on mood. In addition, US PPI data for June reinforced the disinflationary environment while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, one of the most hawkish FOMC member in this cycle, announced his resignation.

A lower-than-expected inflation data in the UK reinforced hopes among investors that disinflationary pressures are gaining traction, triggering a sharp depreciation of the British pound and a drop in the country’s sovereign debt yields.

In yesterday’s session, investors weighed mixed signals from economic sentiment indicators in the US and in Germany. While the Conference Board consumer sentiment indices rose in July, signaling that private consumption might still have room to grow in Q3, the German IFO moderated.

As investors await the Jackson Hole conference for some guidance on monetary policy, European sovereign bond yields fell across the board in Tuesday's session. Meanwhile US short-term references posted gains, boosted by Fed's Barkin hawkish remarks on how the current strong economy would allow for higher rates should inflation pick up.

Eurozone sovereign bond yields remained broadly flat In Thursday's session as investors awaited the Jackson Hole meeting, which started last night with mixed comments from ECB officials. Centeno advised caution on further hikes, as downside risks for the economy are materializing, while Nagel said it's 'much too early' for a pause.