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Investors' optimism faded away in yesterday's session as concerns about a recession mounted and central bank officials insisted on tightening monetary policy. Sovereign yields surged and equities fell in both sides of the Atlantic, while oil prices rose modestly after the OPEC+ confirmed that it plans to cut production by 2 million barrels per day. 

Risk appetite extended gains across markets on Tuesday, as investors took on board positive signals from corporate earnings, a further softening in US sentiment and housing indicators and a decline in gas prices across the globe.

Financial markets closed with mixed results during a highly volatile session on Thursday, as investors digested policy announcements by the ECB and upside surprises in economic data in the US (GDP rose by 2.6% SAAR in Q3).

Financial markets started the week trading with no clear direction, swinging between modest gains and losses across equity markets in Europe and Asia, during a session characterized by low volumes due to a national holiday in the US.

Risk appetite continued to set the tone on Tuesday, as investors shrug off data showing GDP stalled in China in Q4, mixed results from some US banks during the Q4 earnings season and hawkish messages from some ECB officials.

Financial markets closed with mixed results during a volatile session on Wednesday, as investors weighted out data in the US showing a weak year-end for retail sales (-1.1% m/m in December) and industrial production (-0.7%) with signs of further easing in inflationary pressures (headline PPI fell by 0.5% m/m in December).

Investors continued to err on the side of caution on Thursday, still digesting weak economic data pointing to a global economic slowdown and a new round of hawkish signals from the ECB.

Investors kicked off a busy week of macro data releases and central bank decisions with a cautious approach, taking on board signs of lingering inflationary pressures across Europe as well as disappointing GDP figures in Germany(-0.2% q/q after +0.5% in Q3, ahead of the release of the eurozone aggregate this morning).

Risk appetite continued to set the tone across financial markets on Thursday, fueled by expectations that the cycle of monetary policy tightening may be nearing its end.

Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session following revisions of some key economic indicators. In the euro area, headline and core inflation for January were revised by +0.1pp to 8.6% and 5.3%, respectively, and, in the US, 4Q GDP growth was revised by –0.2pp to 2.7% q/q SAAR, mainly due to a softer private consumption.

Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric before the US Senate pushed upwards the financial market expectations for interest rates path ahead. In particular, investors now attach a higher probability to a 50bp hike than to a 25bp move at March’s meeting.

Investors closed the week trading more cautiously than in previous days. Negotiations on the US debt ceiling, which had seemingly advanced since Monday, were halted on Friday, causing US stocks to slide after a generally positive session in Europe. Negotiations are set to resume today.

The political impasse over the US debt ceiling continued weighing on investors sentiment in yesterday's session, as staff-level negotiations held on Tuesday yielded little progress.

Signs of disinflationary pressures and a worsening of household and firm’s economic confidence in the euro area were yesterday’s main drivers in financial markets. Investors’ expectation of the official ECB interest rates was revised downwards between 10 and 15bp for 2023 and 2024.

In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously ahead of a crucial vote in the US House of Representatives to raise the debt ceiling, which was finally approved. Also, disinflationary pressures were made more evident as inflation declined by more than expected in France and Germany while some Fed members insisted on pausing rate hikes.

Investors continued to trade with a positive tone as US Congress passed a law suspending the debt limit until January 1st 2025 and after further evidence of disinflationary pressures in some countries, which, in turn, is likely to lead to lower interest rates than previously expected from central banks.

A subdued session across financial markets at the start of the week, as investors digested a move by some OPEC+ countries for new oil production cuts, disappointing economic sentiment data and a new round of hawkish messages from some key ECB officials, including a call for more policy rate hikes by Christine Lagarde.

Investors traded with a more positive tone on Thursday, taking on board signs of cooling in the US labour market to adjust downwards their expectations for policy interest rates, ahead of next week's monetary policy announcements. 

Yesterday’s session was marked by speeches from several central bankers. In the US, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted in his speech to Congress that he would not characterize last week’s decision as a pause, noting that additional 50 bp rate increases are a good guess of where monetary policy is headed, in line with the updated Dot-Plot.

Investors' risk appetite increased on Tuesday as some upbeat economic data in the US (where new-home sales rose at the fastest pace in over a year in May and consumer confidence rose to its highest level since early 2022 in June) balanced out a fresh round of hawkish comments from several central bank officials.