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Como es tradición, el número de noviembre del Informe Mensual incluye el Dossier en el que analizamos las perspectivas económicas del año que viene. En esta ocasión, hemos seleccionado tres temas que merecen una especial atención. En primer lugar, las perspectivas de la economía global en un 2025 amenazado por la división entre bloques económicos. En segundo lugar, la distensión hacia la que se dirige la política monetaria, con la desinflación bien encarrilada y signos de desaceleración de la actividad. Y, finalmente, cómo encara 2025 la economía española tras dejar atrás unos trimestres de sorpresas positivas desde el punto de vista macroeconómico que nos han obligado a revisar al alza las previsiones de crecimiento.
Los anuncios de subidas tarifarias de la Administración Trump han elevado el arancel medio efectivo que aplica EE. UU. a sus importaciones hasta niveles máximos del último siglo. Aunque la decisión ha quedado suspendida durante 90 días, con la excepción de China, refleja el potencial desestabilizador de las medidas anunciadas y ha disparado el temor a una nueva desaceleración de la economía global.
In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously despite easing concerns on the omicron variant. On the data front, the euro area economic sentiment indicator eased in November from 118.6 points to 117.5 and inflation numbers continued to increase in the region. Germany's HICP inflation rose 1.4pp to 6.0% while in Spain it rose 0.2pp to 5.6%.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a risk-off mood as recessionary concerns spread across financial markets, following the release of the decrease in US real personal spending (from a downward revised +0.3% to -0.4% in May).
Investors continued to readjust their expectations about the future pace of monetary policy tightening, after data showed real GDP fell by 0.2% q/q in the US in Q2, the second consecutive quarterly decline.
Investors traded cautiously in yesterday's session amid lower-than-expected inflation data in some euro area countries. In particular, November HICP year-on-year inflation decreased 0.3pp and 0.7pp in Germany and Spain to 11.3% and 6.6%, respectively.
In yesterday's session, euro area economic releases took center stage. Lower-than-expected October y/y inflation in Germany (3.0% vs 3.3% expected) and in Spain (3.5% vs 3.8% expected) pushed euro area sovereign yields down and the area's main stock indices up. 3Q German GDP growth came in at -0.1% vs -0.2% expected.
Government bond yields extended their losses across the board on Wednesday as investors continued to focus on future interest rate cuts by major central banks. These expectations were boosted by upwardly revised Q3 US GDP growth figures and better-than-expected November inflation figures in Germany and Spain.
US January PCE deflator came in line with expectations (2.4% yoy down from 2.6% the previous month), and euro area countries’ CPI did not surprise either (Germany: 2.5% yoy, France: 2.9% yoy, Spain: 2.8% yoy), boosting markets’ expectations of a first interest rate cut starting in June and July.
Investors kicked off the week with a somewhat quiet session as they await key inflation data later this week: June CPI for France, Spain and Italy; and the US PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
Financial markets ended the week in a risk-off mode despite Friday's inflation data showing that disinflation is progressing on both sides of the Atlantic: US core PCE came in at 2.6% YoY, as expected; and in the eurozone the HCPI prints for Spain, France and Italy were also broadly in line with expectations at 3.5% YoY, 2.5% YoY, and 0.9% YoY, respectively.
Mixed session to close off the week, with US investors reacting to President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, while euro area markets focused on stronger-than-expected economic data, including upside surprises in GDP growth from Spain and Germany.
Wednesday saw a mixed session, as easing geopolitical tensions drove down commodities and sovereign yields, while equities remained pressured by concerns around tech companies' valuations. In commodities, energy prices declined, led by Brent crude, while gold fell on the back of a stronger dollar and higher expected real rates.
Los primeros meses de 2019 parecen corroborar el tono positivo del sector en España, que consolida las excelentes cifras de entrada de turistas internacionales de los últimos años. Mientras que el número de turistas que nos visita crece de manera más moderada, el gasto que realizan continúa evolucionando con fuerza. El reto es ahora sostener estas tendencias, reorientando la oferta turística hacia una de mayor calidad.
European stock markets were mixed as they recorded moderate losses in Germany and France, remained stable in Spain and advanced in Portugal.
U.S. stock markets declined for the first time in the week while European stocks were mixed, with small losses in Germany, and moderate gains in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Markets ended the week with a relatively quiet session. The main U.S. and euro area stock market indices posted moderate gains, but in Spain and Portugal stocks suffered a small decline.
In fixed-income markets, U.S. and German sovereign yields ticked up. Sovereign spreads declined in Spain and Portugal but rose in Italy.
Stock markets were mixed, with slight gains in the Eurozone (with the exception of Spain's Ibex 35), a mixed behavior of the U.S.' main indices and small losses in emerging equities (which were driven by Latin American stocks and partially counterbalanced by Asian indices).