Inflation eased below 2% in Germany and Italy in September (1.6% and 0.7% yoy, respectively), as it did in Spain and France. ECB President Lagarde remarked recent data has strengthened the central bank's confidence in the return of inflation to target, sending the probability implied by futures markets of a 25bp cut in the October meeting to 90%.
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Investors digested a raft of economic data released during yesterday's session, including better-than-expected 3Q euro area GDP (+0.4% qoq) and a mild slowdown in 3Q US GDP (+0.7% qoq). In Spain, 3Q GDP rose by +0.8% qoq while inflation during October picked up to 1.8% yoy in October (1.5% last month).
Investors kicked off the week with a higher risk appetite. In the euro area, the initial negative reaction to Trump's victory began to fade, with equity indices rising across the region and sovereign bond yields falling. Peripheral speads narrowed only slightly and Fitch upgraded Spain's debt outlook from "stable" to "positive", and affirmed its A- rating.
The week started on a risk-off tone. Equities fell across the board, particularly in the US, as several Wall Street CEOs and major banks warned of potential drawdowns and concerns over overstretched valuations. European and Asian indices also declined, albeit more modestly, with Spain’s Ibex closing flat.
Mixed session to close off the week, with US investors reacting to President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, while euro area markets focused on stronger-than-expected economic data, including upside surprises in GDP growth from Spain and Germany.
Wednesday saw a mixed session, as easing geopolitical tensions drove down commodities and sovereign yields, while equities remained pressured by concerns around tech companies' valuations. In commodities, energy prices declined, led by Brent crude, while gold fell on the back of a stronger dollar and higher expected real rates.
Los primeros meses de 2019 parecen corroborar el tono positivo del sector en España, que consolida las excelentes cifras de entrada de turistas internacionales de los últimos años. Mientras que el número de turistas que nos visita crece de manera más moderada, el gasto que realizan continúa evolucionando con fuerza. El reto es ahora sostener estas tendencias, reorientando la oferta turística hacia una de mayor calidad.
European stock markets were mixed as they recorded moderate losses in Germany and France, remained stable in Spain and advanced in Portugal.
U.S. stock markets declined for the first time in the week while European stocks were mixed, with small losses in Germany, and moderate gains in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Markets ended the week with a relatively quiet session. The main U.S. and euro area stock market indices posted moderate gains, but in Spain and Portugal stocks suffered a small decline.
In fixed-income markets, U.S. and German sovereign yields ticked up. Sovereign spreads declined in Spain and Portugal but rose in Italy.
Stock markets were mixed, with slight gains in the Eurozone (with the exception of Spain's Ibex 35), a mixed behavior of the U.S.' main indices and small losses in emerging equities (which were driven by Latin American stocks and partially counterbalanced by Asian indices).
Investors digested the Fed's third rate hike of the year (see our detailed analysis of the meeting here) with moderate stock market gains, relatively unchanged sovereign yields, and a mixed behavior in FX markets, where the euro eased to $1.16 while some EM currencies appreciated (such as the Turkish lira the Brazilian real) and others weakened (such as Argentina's peso).
In yesterday’s session, investors’ sentiment worsened following concerns of overvaluations in some risky assets and mixed economic data releases. In particular, August Composite PMIs came out weaker-than-expected in most euro area countries (Spain, Italy and France) and surprised positively in Germany, the US and China.
European stocks edged down on Friday, while U.S. stocks notched gains despite posting a slight loss on the week as investors faced the reality of a second coronavirus wave in Europe and the uncertainty around further stimulus in the U.S.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid growing COVID-19 cases and better-than-expected Q3 GDP releases in the euro area (euro area aggregate +12.7 vs Consensus +9.6; Spain +16.7 vs Consensus +13.5%).
Investors traded cautiously in yesterday's session. The IMF updated its global economic forecasts – raising world GDP growth in 2021 to 5.5% but lowering the euro area's 2021 projections to 4.2% (-1.0pp). Spain's 2021 GDP growth forecast was lowered to 5.9% (-1.3pp).
European stocks and bond yields fell yesterday as Italy, France, Germany and Spain suspend vaccinations with the AstraZeneca vaccine over worries about the jabs' side-effects. Meanwhile, Italy has taken more stringent lockdown measures. The Eurostoxx50 was down by 0.1%.
European equities dropped as investors looked for the next catalysts to give the market direction. In Spain, shares of utility companies dropped over a draft bill the government is preparing that could drive down electricity prices.
In the first session of the week, investors extended the positive tone seen during last Friday. In the euro area, economic data releases came in better than expected (EZ Sentix Investor Confidence rose in June to 28.0 from 21.0 and Spain's industrial production rose by 1.2% mom in April).