Markets went through a mixed session as investors digested solid U.S. activity figures. U.S. GDP growth accelerated to +1.6% qoq in Q1 2021 (Q4 2020: +1.1%) on the back of stronger private consumption (+2.6% qoq), which found support on easing restrictions and fiscal stimulus. U.S. stocks advanced and yields on Treasuries nudged up.
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Volatility edged up amid a bunch of economic releases on Friday. In the euro area, GDP contracted moderately in Q1 (-0.6% qoq) while inflation rose to 1.6% in April (+0.3pp) due to base effects in energy prices. U.S. consumer spending rose +4.2% mom in March as consumers received stimulus checks, and PCE core inflation advanced to 1.8% yoy.
Global stocks tumbled on Tuesday, with the tech sector in Europe suffering its biggest drop since October, mirroring a selloff on the Nasdaq (-1.9%, sharpest fall since March). The decline was driven by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that interest rates may need to rise to prevent the economy from overheating.
During a volatile session, stocks almost wiped out their initial gains as technology shares turned lower, offsetting optimism over solid corporate earnings and positive economic data (service ISM and ADP employment surveys).
Investors traded with optimism, following upbeat corporate earnings and signs of further improvement in the labour market, with initial jobless claims in the US edging down last week to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic.
In the first session of the week, investors traded in a cautious mood amid an increase in market-based measures of inflation expectations (the U.S.' 5Y5Y inflation breakeven rate reached 2.36%, a level not seen since 2014).
Yesterday, volatility rose amid investor inflation worries. U.S. CPI inflation jumped in April to +4.2% yoy (headline index, +1.6pp) and 3.0% (core index, +1.4pp). Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida reiterated the central bank's view that the inflation rebound is largely transitory as it is mostly driven by base effects and short-term supply bottlenecks.
During a volatile session, markets erased some of the early gains after comments by Fed VP Richard Clarida noting that the central bank could start discussing in upcoming meetings adjusting the pace of asset purchases (tapering). In addition, house prices in the U.S. continued to accelerate while consumer confidence stalled.
Financial markets recorded another day with positive results, following the release of solid economic data in the U.S.: new jobless weekly claims fell to a new pandemic-era low and core capital goods orders rose by 2.3% in April, in both cases above expectations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen also reiterated that the rise in inflation should be transitory.
In the last session of the week, investors traded with a positive mood amid robust employment data in the U.S. Non-farm payrolls rose by +559k in May (consensus expected +675k on average) and the unemployment rate dropped by 0.3 p. p. to 5.8%.
Investors ended the week on a positive note, following the release of solid labour market data in the US: non-farm payrolls rose by 850K in June while the unemployment rate remained broadly stable at 5.9%. As a result, equity indices rose in both sides of the Atlantic, reaching new records in the US.
Treasury yields fell as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified before Congress that rising inflation is likely to be transitory and that the central bank would continue to support the economy. The Bank of Japan left its 10-year bond yield target unchanged at about 0% after concluding its meeting and also kept the policy-balance rate at -0.1%.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment improved and recovered from Monday’s lows amid upbeat corporate results. Stock indices in the euro area and in the US rose as traders bought the dip (the S&P 500 registered its biggest daily increase since March).
Yesterday investors paused their concerns on the evolution of the pandemic and traded with an optimistic mood amid better-than-expected corporate results. Since the start of the earnings season, more than 85% of the S&P 500 companies that have released results have beaten analysts’ expectations.
The new forward guidance of the ECB, a tilt more dovish, was received smoothly by financial markets in a session where investor sentiment continued to improve on the back of positive corporate results.
Asian stocks dropped markedly on Monday, following the crackdown by the Chinese government on education and tech companies. Investors in Europe and the U.S., however, shrugged off the spike in volatility, bolstered by optimism over the corporate earnings season.
Markets were mixed in a light-volume session with no major economic releases. A rebound in Chinese equities and rising commodity prices supported EM currencies and triggered gains across emerging-economy stock markets. In advanced-economies, U.S. equities rose moderately while European markets closed mixed.
Markets traded on a positive mood as investors wait for central-bank guidance. Volatility declined and stocks posted moderate gains across advanced and emerging economies.
Financial markets ended the day with mixed results, as investors digested a decision by the ECB to scale down its asset purchases and, separately, hawkish comments by some Fed officials about the likely start of tapering this year. These fears outweighed positive labour data in the US (new jobless claims fell to 310k last week, a pandemic-era low).
Investors ended the week in a mixed mood. Volatility jumped and stock markets declined across many advanced economies. In contrast, EM equities posted moderate gains.