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Markets ended the week in a mixed mood as investors pondered over the Fed's plans for stimuli withdrawal, risks from China's Evergrande and the announcement that Chinese authorities will ban all transactions and mining related to cryptocurrencies. Global stocks declined or closed flat while the USD rose against most AE and EM currencies.

Precaution and volatility continued to set the tone across financial markets on Thursday. Eurozone HICP inflation surprised on the upside (headline: 8.5% y/y in February after 8.6%; core: 5.6% after 5.3%) while, in the US, data showed unit labour cost accelerated in Q4 and new weekly jobless claims fell further last week.

Economic data releases on Friday boosted investors' sentiment and allowed sovereign yields to edge down and equities to advance. Price pressures continue to moderate but remain elevated, according to the ISM prices paid index in the US (which fell from 67.8 to 65.6) and the PPI in the euro area (which declined from 24.5% to 15.0% y/y).

The hawkish tone set by central bank officials continued to center the stage in financial markets at the start of the week. In particular, ECB chief economist Phillip Lane signaled that further interest rate hikes beyond next week's meeting will be appropriate to ease inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell’s hawkish rhetoric before the US Senate pushed upwards the financial market expectations for interest rates path ahead. In particular, investors now attach a higher probability to a 50bp hike than to a 25bp move at March’s meeting.

Volatility and risk aversion continued to set the tone across financial markets in the last session of the week. On the one hand, investors sentiment continued to be impaired by liquidity concerns in the banking sector, sparked by the crisis and subsequent closure by regulators of a small tech-focused financial group in the US (SVB).

Concerns about the health of the banking sector and the potential implications for the trajectory of monetary policy remained the key themes during a volatile session on Monday. Money markets showed a notable correction in expectations for terminal policy rates in both the US (5% in May) and the eurozone (3% in September).

Risk appetite returned to the fore on Tuesday, as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy across major central banks in the aftermath of the turmoil generated by the collapse of two regional banks in the US.

Risk aversion extended across financial markets during a volatile session on Wednesday, fueled by concerns about the health of the banking sector in Europe, in the aftermath of the collapse of some regional banks in the US and renewed concerns about the financial position of Swiss lender Credit Suisse.

Volatility remained elevated across financial markets on Thursday, in a session characterized by risk-on sentiment. In line with expectations, the ECB announced a 50 bp hike in its policy interest rates, although refusing to pre-commit to a given size and pace of future adjustments, instead reiterating a data-dependency approach.

In the last session of the week, investors’ concerns about liquidity shortage in the banking system continued to dominate the scenario and risk-aversion set the tone in financial markets.

On Monday, volatility continued to dominate financial markets. While the session started with losses in stock indices and sharp declines in sovereign yields, sentiment improved throughout the day following the communication by some ECB officials. Equities closed higher and yields on sovereign bonds rose in the US and were mixed in the euro area.

Monetary policy decisions remained the key focus for investors on Thursday. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank raised rates by 25bp and 50bp to 4.25% and 1.5%, respectively, following the move by the Fed on Wednesday to hike rates by 25bp and to signal that there could be additional increases if financial turmoil recedes.

In the last session of the week, investors continued to trade with a risk-off mood amid continuing turmoil in the financial system. Doubts about the health of the banking sector led traders to think that central banks will have to stop hiking rates and start cutting them soon.

Precaution remained the key theme during a session with mixed results on Tuesday. Positive survey data in the US (the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index surprised by rising to 104.2 in March) suggested limited spillovers so far from the banking sector turmoil on consumer confidence.

Investors traded with a risk-on mood on Wednesday. The main drivers were a rally in tech stocks, boosted by the restructuring plans from China’s Alibaba Group, as well as receding fears of contagion from the banking turmoil.

Equity markets extended a rally across the globe on Thursday, as investors continued to switch their focus away from the stress in the banking sector and instead pondered about the likely path of monetary policy decisions ahead.

On Friday, the release of HICP inflation data in the euro area centered the stage in financial markets. Headline inflation fell sharply from 8.5% to 6.9% y/y in March, but core inflation ticked up to 7.5% in a sign that price pressures are persisting. In this context, ECB member Villeroy de Galhau said there are still some more rate hikes to do.

In yesterday's session, investors' concerns about the pace of economic activity in the coming months led to a generalized risk-off sentiment. In particular, the US manufacturing ISM declined from 47.7 to 46.3 while the prices paid subcomponent fell too (from 51.1 to 49.2).

Economic data releases centered the stage on Tuesday, in particular the JOLTS survey, which showed job openings in the US fell to 9.9 million in February, down from 10.6 million vacancies in the previous month. This level, the lowest since May 2021, pushed down the vacancies for unemployed ratio from 1.9 to 1.7, still above historical average.