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Economic data releases centered the stage on Tuesday, in particular the JOLTS survey, which showed job openings in the US fell to 9.9 million in February, down from 10.6 million vacancies in the previous month. This level, the lowest since May 2021, pushed down the vacancies for unemployed ratio from 1.9 to 1.7, still above historical average.

Investors started the week trading with a cautious approach, in a session characterized by low volumes due to Easter holidays (financial markets were closed in most European countries as well as in Australia and Hong Kong).

Investors continued to err on the side of caution on Wednesday, balancing out data showing US inflation cooled slightly more than expected in March with warnings set out in the minutes of the last Fed meeting of the risk of a mild recession in the US later this year.

Risk appetite extended across financial markets on Thursday, with sentiment lifted by resilient economic data and further signs that inflationary pressures are easing. The focus today turns to the kickoff of the Q1 corporate earnings season, with results from some large US banks. 

Hawkish comments by officials from the ECB and the US Federal Reserve were the main drivers for investor sentiment in the last session of the week. In the euro area, Pierre Wunsch urged the ECB to speed up the reduction of its balance sheet and to stop reinvesting the maturing bonds while Joachim Nagel called for further interest rate hikes.

In the first session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid hawkish comments from some FOMC member and mixed results in the US corporate earnings season. In particular, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that more evidence that US inflation is easing will be needed before changing the monetary policy stance.

Caution continued to set the tone in financial markets amid mixed corporate profits releases and hawkish comments by US Federal Reserve members. In particular, Raphael Bostic argued in favor of a rate hike in May’s meeting, and pausing there, while James Bullard leaned towards bringing interest rates towards the 5.50-5.75% target range.

Investors traded with caution in yesterday’s session, amid mixed economic data releases and hawkish central banks’ communication. In particular, the minutes of the last ECB meeting showed how Governing Council members agreed to further tighten monetary policy if the inflation outlook in March’s projections is confirmed.

Investors ended the week sticking with a cautious approach, taking on board mixed corporate earnings and resilient economic sentiment data pointing to more monetary policy tightening ahead. For the ECB, VP Luis de Guindos said core inflation remains “very sticky”and added that the next ECB moves will be based on data.

Investors started the week trading with no clear direction, taking on board mixed signals from the ECB and looking ahead for a new batch of corporate results and the Q1 GDP data for the world’s largest economies later this week.

Risk aversion returned to the fore during a volatile session on Tuesday, with investors sentiment faltered by the release of weak consumer confidence data and mixed signals from the ongoing Q1 corporate earnings season.

Investors continued to err on the side of caution on Wednesday, taking position ahead of the release of the Q1 GDP flash estimates for the US today and across the eurozone tomorrow.

A more risk-on session was recorded across global markets on Thursday, as investors balanced out positive signals from corporate earnings results in the tech sector with mixed US economic data.

In yesterday's session, investors traded with a risk-off mood amid concerns on the US debt ceiling and clearer signs that the US labor market is cooling down. In particular, job vacancies in March declined by 400k to 9,590k, the lowest level since April 2021.

Yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting resulted as a nonevent for financial markets as the 25bp rate increase to the 5.00%-5.25% target range was 100% priced in. Also, the removal of an explicit reference in the press release of further interest rate increases in the coming meetings was consistent with the expectation of a pause in the hiking cycle.

In yesterday’s session, the focus was still on monetary policy decisions, as the ECB decided to raise the official interest rates by 25 bp (depo and refi rate at 3.25% and 3.75%, respectively). Despite lowering the pace of rate increases, Lagarde clearly signaled that the ECB cannot pause rate hikes yet as inflation is still too much elevated.

Investors closed the week trading with more appetite for risk, taking on board another upside surprise in labour market data in the US and easing financial pressure in the country’s regional banks.

Investors started the week trading with a more cautious approach, with sentiment negatively impacted by weak industrial data in Germany (–3.4% m/m in March, well below expectations) and signs of tightening credit conditions in the US, according to the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.

Risk aversion returned to the fore during a volatile session on Tuesday, with weak trade data in China resurging fears of a global economic slowdown and as there were no clear progress during the first talks between Democrats and Republicans to try to resolve the US debt ceiling standoff. Today the focus turns to the US CPI inflation data for April.