Stock markets advanced in Europe and the US as German sovereign yields remained stable and US yields edged up.
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Stock markets mixed on Wednesday, as they remained broadly stable in the US, declined in the euro area periphery and advanced in Germany.
Investors took stock after the significant gains of the last sessions and stocks advanced moderately.
Stock markets posted gains across Europe and the US, while sovereign yields moved in opposite directions as they recorded mild declines in the eurozone and moderate increases in the US.
Investors have been relatively cautious as they continue to assess Trump's tax proposal. As a consequence, stock markets remained relatively stable.
Strong rebound in sovereign yields especially for the Treasury yields that reached the highest level in two month mainly on the announcement of Donald Trump's tax-cut plan.
International investors remained cautious with no further progress in equity markets and stability for the sovereign yields after the geopolitical tensions intensified again at the beginning of the week.
Equities and sovereign yields decreased slightly in most of the developed countries due to a spike of risk aversion on the renewed tensions between the US and North Korea.
Thursday's session carried a distinctly risk-off tone, driven by tensions in the Middle East and AI investor concerns. Brent oil surged on Saudi Arabian supply disruption fears, and TTF gas rose in tandem with oil prices. Stock markets declined across the board, further dragged by a selloff in technology equities.
Sovereign bond markets remained under pressure as investors grappled with persistent inflation risks, higher energy prices and uncertainty surrounding the AI-driven growth story. US Treasury yields stayed elevated while in Europe peripheral spreads widened further amid fiscal concerns, with French yields hitting the 5% threshold for the first time since 2002, while UK gilt yields rose after stronger-than-expected inflation data.
French bond stress deepens The French spread reached 153bps, its widest since early October, as France's fiscal and political pressures continued to weigh on sovereign debt. The euro weakened as the French spread widened, with ECB Governing Council member Rehn acknowledging the spread had moved "somewhat”.
Risk sentiment weakened in Europe as persistent investor concerns over France’s fiscal outlook continued to weigh on equities, the euro and sovereign bonds. In contrast, U.S. equities advanced, led by gains in AI-related and semiconductor stocks.
Friday saw a mixed session across asset classes. Energy prices rose amid elevated geopolitical risks in Hormuz and Ukraine, keeping short-term inflation expectations under pressure, particularly in the US.
Thursday's session carried a cautious tone. Market concerns over the sustainability of AI investments weighed on chipmakers and technology equities, but the main U.S. stock market benchmarks ended higher while European indices were mixed. Brent oil and TTF natural gas prices nudged down.
Moderate risk-off sentiment prevailed across markets following the upside surprise in U.S. inflation, while oil prices remained elevated amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, standing at 3.7% YoY, driven primarily by energy prices, particularly gasoline.
Markets closed the week on a mixed note on Friday. Market odds for further interest rate hikes rose, with investors discounting three hikes for the Fed and three to four for the ECB over the next 12 months. The ECB's Lagarde and Vujcic pushed back somewhat against these market expectations, explaining that the bank will look beyond higher energy prices alone when deciding its monetary policy.
Markets were mixed on Thursday, after a combination of higher energy prices following Saudi Arabia's interception of Houthi ballistic missiles targeting its energy infrastructure and a raft of hawkish comments from ECB and Fed officials (with ECB's Schnabel pointing to spreading price pressures) pushed up inflation expectations and policy rate odds.
Wednesday saw a risk-off session in financial markets, as stronger-than-expected September PMIs, hawkish ECB and Fed comments, and higher Brent prices prompted an upward repricing of inflation expectations and policy rates, with markets pricing more than four ECB hikes and almost four Fed hikes over the next 12 months.
Financial markets started the week on a positive note, as hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the war in Iran caused energy prices to fall, pushing inflation expectations lower on both sides of the Atlantic. This also eased central banks' rate hike expectations, although investors still price in three rate hikes by both the ECB and the Fed over the next 12 months.
The risk-off tone continued into Tuesday's session. Oil surged and extended September's run, driven by supply concerns and the disruption of Saudi Arabia's exports via the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Compounding the pressure, markets moved to a near-certainty on a Fed rate hike today.