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Sovereign bond markets remained under pressure as investors grappled with persistent inflation risks, higher energy prices and uncertainty surrounding the AI-driven growth story. US Treasury yields stayed elevated while in Europe peripheral spreads widened further amid fiscal concerns, with French yields hitting the 5% threshold for the first time since 2002, while UK gilt yields rose after stronger-than-expected inflation data.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/publications/financial-markets-daily-report/22-october-2026

Markets closed the week on a mixed note on Friday. Market odds for further interest rate hikes rose, with investors discounting three hikes for the Fed and three to four for the ECB over the next 12 months. The ECB's Lagarde and Vujcic pushed back somewhat against these market expectations, explaining that the bank will look beyond higher energy prices alone when deciding its monetary policy.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/publications/financial-markets-daily-report/21-september-2026

Markets were mixed on Thursday, after a combination of higher energy prices following Saudi Arabia's interception of Houthi ballistic missiles targeting its energy infrastructure and a raft of hawkish comments from ECB and Fed officials (with ECB's Schnabel pointing to spreading price pressures) pushed up inflation expectations and policy rate odds.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/publications/financial-markets-daily-report/25-september-2026

Financial markets started the week on a positive note, as hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the war in Iran caused energy prices to fall, pushing inflation expectations lower on both sides of the Atlantic. This also eased central banks' rate hike expectations, although investors still price in three rate hikes by both the ECB and the Fed over the next 12 months.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/publications/financial-markets-daily-report/22-september-2026