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In yesterday’s session, global stock markets advanced as investors increased risk appetite following reports about a Chinese stimulus to support the local stock market, a better-than-expected earnings season in the U.S. so far, and a favorable US PMI reading. Sovereign bond yields edged lower in the euro area and slightly rose in the U.S.

Financial markets reversed part of the large movements from the previous session following the US January CPI report. Sovereign bond yields fell on both sides of the Atlantic, while equity markets recovered most notably in the US.  The VIX volatility index fell below 15 once again.

Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await the ECB’s decision and US macro data in the coming days. Sovereign bond yields edged higher across the board, while stock markets were mixed, falling in the euro area and modestly rising in the US. Chinese stocks rallied on reports of a government stimulus to stabilize stock markets.

US November CPI report came mostly in line with expectations: prices grew 0.1% MoM (vs. 0.0% expected) and 3.1% YoY (as expected) down from 3.2% in October, reinforcing the view the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its meeting today. The lack of surprises left markets rather muted, with treasury yields flat and stock indices slightly advancing.

Investors traded cautiously during yesterday’s session as they digested a mixed bag of economic data releases. Euro area March inflation cooled to 2.4% y/y from 2.6%, slightly below consensus. In the US, the ISM services index surprised to the downside by falling to 51.4, down from 52.6 in February, while the ADP employment report surprised to the upside.

In yesterday’s session, investors traded cautiously ahead of today’s US February CPI release, which is expected to show prices grew by 0.4% m/m, implying a 3.1% y/y change, down from 3.4% last month. The report will also give a clearer picture of price dynamics before the Fed's meeting next week.

In the last session of the week, investors reassessed their expectation for the Fed’s interest rate path ahead as the US April employment report showed a cooling labor market. In particular, job creation slowed from 315k to 175k, way below consensus expectations, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% and wage growth decelerated to 0.2% m/m.

In yesterday’s session, markets digested mixed economic data from the US. The ADP monthly employment report showed hiring at private companies grew at the slowest pace since the beginning of the year, a sign the labor market might be cooling. Instead, the sharp rise in the ISM services index from 49.4 to 53.8 pointed to a rebound in the sector.

In the last session of the week investors digested the US February jobs report, which gave mixed signs about the conditions of the labor market. In particular, the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9%, while 275k new jobs were created, as opposed to the 200k expected. Treasury yields ended mostly flat and US equities fell following a strong rally.

Investors started the week on a subdued note as they await key central bank meetings and data releases this week. Sovereign bond yields were little changed ahead of today's US CPI report. Yesterday, the NY Fed's 1-year inflation expectations index for November extended its decline to 3.4% showing the impact of interest rate hikes.

Risk-off mode took over financial markets on Friday, as the US employment report showed a cooling labour market. Hiring in the US is slowing down, but not falling off a cliff, so implicit interest money market rates are still discounting a 25 b.p. cut from the Fed at its September meeting.

Markets saw a risk-off session following the release of weak economic data in the US. The ISM Manufacturing Index for July fell for the fourth consecutive month and remained in contraction territory (46.8), signaling weakness in the manufacturing sector. Investors also await today's release of the employment report for July.

Wednesday saw another mixed session in the financial markets ahead of today's US inflation report. Government bond yields rose slightly in the eurozone and more sharply in the US. The move in the eurozone came as some ECB officials expressed doubts about a rate cut in October, which had so far been favoured by most of the bank's officials who spoke.

Subdued trading on financial markets on Tuesday ahead of today's US CPI report and tomorrow's ECB meeting. Eurozone government bond yields were flat, while US yields edged slightly higher. On the data front, US unit labour costs rose 0.8% in Q3 (below an expected 1.3%), while the NFIB business confidence index rose to its highest level since June 2021.

Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious note as they await the ECB's Governing Council meeting (on Thursday), widely expected to lower interest rates by 25bp, and US inflation figures for November (released on Wednesday), a key report for the Fed's decision next week.

Financial markets experienced a risk-on session on Friday as the US employment report for September came in better than expected, shrugging off geopolitical concerns. The strength of the labour market underlined the dynamism of the economy and eased pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively to support the economy.

Yesterday’s session centered around the June inflation report from the US: inflation cooled to 3.0% in June (from 3.3% in May) and core inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.4% last month. On a monthly basis, prices fell –0.1%, the first negative rate in four years. Markets are discounting two interest rate cut from the Fed in 2024, and a 40% probability of a third cut.

Financial markets traded without a clear direction ahead of the US CPI report expected today. In the US, assets had a choppy trading session, as early optimism driven by unexpectedly low US wholesale inflation in December (PPI +0.2% mom vs. +0.4% expected) was muted later on. In this context, US sovereign bonds and equities closed the session flat.

Investors ended the week focused on the US employment report for June, which signaled the labor market is cooling as job creation slowed and the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.0% to 4.1%. This boosted expectations for two rate cuts this year, which sent Treasury yields lower and stocks higher, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting new record highs.

Investors ended the week by revising their expectations for future interest rates upwards as Friday’s US employment report for November beat expectations for job creation and a lower unemployment rate. This caused Treasury yields to rise across the board, as it should force the Fed to remain hawkish and potentially delay any interest rate cuts.