Investors traded cautiously ahead of today’s Fed meeting. Yesterday’s JOLTS report showed US job openings increased in October, indicating that the labor market isn't weakening abruptly and raising the risk that the Fed may strike a hawkish tone despite the widely expected rate cut later today. In response, Treasury yields edged higher and the dollar strengthened.
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Dovish remarks from Fed Governor Chris Waller and a JOLTS job report that showed US job openings fell in July to the lowest in 10 months, reniforced market expectations of a Fed rate cut in its September meeting. US Treasruy yields fell and stocks advanced, while the dollar edged lower.
Financial markets had a mixed session as traders weighed incoming macro data and corporate earnings announcements to gauge the state of the economy. The JOLTs report showed that US job vacancies fell in September, while the Conference Board consumer confidence for October surprised to the upside (as did the German Gfk sentiment index for November).
In the last session of the week investors digested the US February jobs report, which gave mixed signs about the conditions of the labor market. In particular, the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9%, while 275k new jobs were created, as opposed to the 200k expected. Treasury yields ended mostly flat and US equities fell following a strong rally.
Investors started the week trading cautiously, taking on board weak sentiment data, hawkish commentary by some ECB officials and news reporting that Russia is due to reduce gas supplies to Europe.
As no major developments were reported in the Middle East, investors remained cautiously optimistic that US–Iran talks could resume in the coming days and the ceasefire will hold. Energy prices were broadly stable to softer, with Brent crude trading around $95/barrel and TTF gas easing toward €41/MWh.
Investors started the week with mixed results, taking on board hawkish commentaries by some ECB officials and news reporting that the US government may announce a decision to lift certain tariffs on Chinese imports.
Risk aversion returned to the fore during a volatile session on Tuesday, as investors reassessed the risk of a global recession amid ongoing disruptions in gas supply in Europe and reports of new COVID cases in some regions in China.
Signs of easing tensions in energy markets supported a modest improvement in risk sentiment. Reports of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alongside comments from the IEA on potential reserve releases, pushed Brent crude down by around 3% to $100/barrel. Global equities rebounded, volatility declined, and the US dollar weakened (EUR/USD rose toward 1.15).
Risk appetite extended across markets on Thursday, as fears about inflation and monetary tightening eased following soft labour data in the US (weekly jobless claims rose to the highest level since January). Meanwhile, news reported that China’s government is considering more fiscal support by raising by $220bn the issuance of special bonds.
Yesterday's session was marked by late optimism after President Trump called off the US-planned strikes on Iran, after reportedly having advanced negotiations with Tehran. Brent crude prices dropped nearly 3%, to settle just above $90/bbl, while gold rebounded more than 3%, being priced above $4200/ounce at session-ending.
Investors shifted gears across asset classes on Friday, as the US employment report showed robust job growth in May for a third month in a row. The resilient labour market and inflation risks led markets to fully price in a Fed rate hike by year‑end. US Treasury yields rose accordingly, especially at the short end, further flattening the curve.
Yesterday's session showed a risk-off tone amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude prices hit $100/barrel after Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader, vowed to keep the Strait of Ormuz and after Iran reportedly attacked oil tankers and other energy facilities.
During yesterday's session, investors continued to digest the implications of the US Supreme Court's ruling to strike down US emergency tariffs. While the global tariff stands at 10%, the Trump administration is reportedly working to increase it to 15%. Against this backdrop, government bond yields closed flat on both sides of the Atlantic, in a day of choppy trading.
El crecimiento de turistas internacionales se ha contenido en 2019 debido al contexto económico mundial y a la recuperación de los competidores en el Mediterráneo, pero el sector turístico muestra una gran resiliencia apoyada en el consumo del turismo residente y en la apuesta por el turismo de calidad.
Investors traded with a risk-on mood yesterday, after the confirmation that the Fed will begin this month to taper its net asset purchases, but that it will keep its policy interest rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, at least until the economy reaches full employment.
In the last session of the week, investors continued to digest the decisions taken by the main central banks in advanced economies. Although at different speeds, and with the exception of the Bank of Japan, all central banks shifted towards a tighter monetary policy despite rising COVID-19 cases.
In the first session of a week with low trading volumes, investors' sentiment kept the negative tone seen on Friday amid rising COVID-19 cases. In the US, Joe Biden's $1.75 trillion spending package was rejected in the Senate and contributed to the worsening economic outlook for the coming quarters.
Investors traded with a risk-on sentiment on Tuesday, still waiting for more information about the ongoing talks between Russia and Ukraine and digesting hawkish signals from central bankers, with various Fed officials supporting a more aggressive normalization of policy interest rates.
During a volatile session, financial markets experienced risk-off flows, as investors took on board another round of hawkish commentaries from various Fed officials, weak sentiment data in Europe and escalating tensions around Ukraine. Today, officials from NATO and EU leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss new sanctions to Russia.